The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

During April 20-26, 2024, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted a survey of Ukrainian refugees by order of the non-governmental organization Center for Strategic Communications "Forum". Bythemethodof  computer-assisted web interviews (CAWI) 801 respondents (adult citizens aged 18 and older) who left Ukraine after February 24, 2022 and currently live in Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic were interviewed.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the theoretical statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95) did not exceed 3.5%. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the lack of reliable statistical data on the number and resettlement of Ukrainian refugees, the lack of data on their sex-age structure, the rooting of individual Ukrainian refugees and, as a result, less interest in participating in Ukrainian surveys, the peculiarities of the online interview method. The specified factors affect the error and the actual error will be somewhat higher.

At the same time, we believe that the obtained results still retain significant representativeness and allow us to analyze the public moods of Ukrainian refugees.

            The majority of Ukrainian refugees in Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic - 80% - believe that Ukraine will win the war. However, 40% of them are completely sure of this, and the rest rather think so.

Graph1. How do you feel, in the end of the war, Ukraine or Russia will win?

At the same time, 51% of Ukrainian refugees support the option when Ukraine becomes a member of NATO, but with security guarantees that extend only to territories currently controlled by the Government. At the same time, the liberation of the currently occupied territories should be postponed for the future. Do not support this option - 33%, undecided - 16%.

Graph2. The following proposal can be heard from some people: Ukraine becomes a member of NATO, but NATO's security guarantees will be extended only to the territories currently controlled by Ukraine. And the liberation of the currently occupied territories should be postponed for the future. How do you feel about this idea?

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

How do you feel, in the end of the war, Ukraine or Russia will win?

The following proposal can be heard from some people: Ukraine becomes a member of NATO, but NATO's security guarantees will be extended only to the territories currently controlled by Ukraine. And the liberation of the currently occupied territories should be postponed for the future. How do you feel about this idea?