The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

During April 20-26, 2024, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted a survey of Ukrainian refugees by order of the non-governmental organization Center for Strategic Communications "Forum". Bythemethodofcomputer-assistedwebinterviews(CAWI) 801 respondents (adult citizens aged 18 and older) who left Ukraine after February 24, 2022 and currently live in Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic were interviewed.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the theoretical statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95) did not exceed 3.5%. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the lack of reliable statistical data on the number and resettlement of Ukrainian refugees, the lack of data on their sex-age structure, the rooting of individual Ukrainian refugees and, as a result, less interest in participating in Ukrainian surveys, the peculiarities of the online interview method. The specified factors affect the error and the actual error will be somewhat higher.

At the same time, we believe that the obtained results still retain significant representativeness and allow us to analyze the public attitudes of Ukrainian refugees.

Most of the surveyed Ukrainian refugees in Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic (66%) are rather or completely satisfied with their current living conditions in the new country. However, 28% of them are completely satisfied, and the remaining 38% are rather satisfied. Dissatisfied with living conditions - 26% of respondents.

Graph1. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you in general with your current life in Germany / Poland / the Czech Republic?

Among the respondents, 7% claim that they already have the citizenship of another country (except Ukraine), and another 12% have submitted documents and are waiting for a decision. They have not filed and do not plan to do so - 34%.

At the same time, almost half of respondents (45%) did not submit documents, but in general would like to obtain citizenship of another country.

Graph2. Now some Ukrainians abroad are trying to get citizenship of the country where they are. Others do not plan to do so. And what about you?

In addition, we asked respondents under what conditions they would return to Ukraine. Relatively most respondents spoke about the normal operation of critical infrastructure (34%) and security (34%). This is followed by housing (26%) and ending a full-scale invasion (26%). Fewer respondents spoke about the possibility of finding a job (16%) and the conditions for children to attend school/kindergarten (13%).

Graph3. Some Ukrainians abroad plan to return to Ukraine under certain conditions, while others, for various reasons, plan to stay in the new country for a long time. What about you? If you plan to return, under which conditions from this list would you be ready to return to Ukraine? Choose all that apply?

One of the pressing questions is what proportion of Ukrainian refugees will eventually return to Ukraine. It is clear that while large-scale hostilities continue (with an uncertain outcome), any estimates are indicative and it is impossible to determine exactly how many Ukrainians will actually return.

In this survey, we combined respondents' answers to the three questions discussed above for such an indicative assessment. We started from the fact that it is more likely that those who do not have and have not submitted documents for the citizenship of another country, are not completely satisfied with the living conditions in a new country, express certain conditions for return (and do not answer "I plan to stay for a long time") are more likely to return.

According to this approach exactly half of the respondents (50%) are those who are more likely to return to Ukraine. However, taking into account the respondents' answers to the questions below regarding interest in Ukraine, the indicated assessment is rather an optimistic scenario in the current conditions.

Graph4. Estimated % of Ukrainian refugees who are likely to return to Ukraine

One of the markers of maintaining a meaningful connection with Ukraine is interest in news and the latest events in the life of the country. We asked from which sources - Ukrainian and/or foreign - Ukrainian refugees mainly receive information about Ukraine.

As can be seen below in graph 5, 56% of respondents answered that they receive information about Ukraine. Among the rest, 11% answered "difficult to answer" (which, in particular, is a form of evasion from socially unapproved behavior), and 34% directly answered that they are not interested in information about Ukraine.

At the same time, among 56% of respondents, 42% receive information from Ukrainian sources, and the remaining 14% rely exclusively on foreign sources.

Graph5. You receive information about news and the latest events in the life of Ukraine from Ukrainian sources, from foreign sources, or from both of these sources?

Another important marker is whether the respondents are ready to vote in possible elections, if there was a decision to hold them. If parliamentary elections were announced in Ukraine, 31% of Ukrainian refugees would rather or definitely vote for them (12% of them definitely), another 33% answered "difficult to say for sure, 50/50". The rest would rather or definitely not vote.

Graph6. And if a decision was made to hold elections to the Verkhovna Rada soon in Ukraine, how likely would you be to take part in them or not?

Respondents do not have a crystallized attitude to the draft law on multiple citizenship. Thus, 23% have a mostly positive impression of it, 34% have a mostly negative one. At the same time, 37% have a neutral attitude (and another 6% could not answer the question).

Graph7. President Volodymyr Zelenskyi has submitted to the Verkhovna Rada a draft law that will enable the introduction of multiple citizenship. In particular, it is proposed to introduce a simplified procedure for acquiring Ukrainian citizenship for Ukrainians who hold the citizenship of another country. This will not apply to citizens of the aggressor state. And what is your general impression of this Law now?

Among the respondents, 57% now communicate mainly in Ukrainian at home. 19% mainly communicate in Russian, and 21% communicate equally in Ukrainian and Russian. Another 3% speak the language of the country where they currently live.

Graph8. What language do you usually speak at home?

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

Ukrainians currently living in Ukraine admit that the country has suffered a powerful demographic blow and that a significant problem is looming in the future. In the KIIS survey in the fall of 2023, the demographic problem, although inferior to other current "right now" challenges, was among the top answers of the respondents[1]. Experts also constantly talk about the demographic challenge and the need to already discuss different scenarios and possible measures.

That is why we should all be interested in having as many of our citizens as possible return to Ukraine after being forced to leave abroad. Previous polls by KIIS showed that the absolute majority of those currently living in Ukraine have a normal attitude towards Ukrainian refugees (who legally left Ukraine)[2], although against the background of increasing psychological tension and fatigue, tendencies towards a critical attitude may increase.

The results of the survey given in this press release show that a significant part of Ukrainian refugees are losing (or have already lost) their connection with Ukraine. Unfortunately, this was completely expected and in any case we would have lost some citizens. However, the question of what part of citizens can be returned and what is the point of doing this remains open. On the one hand, the state, Ukrainian civil society and ordinary citizens should play their role in maintaining contact with citizens abroad, working with them, keeping in touch and motivating them to return. On the other hand, communication cannot be one-way, that is, Ukrainians abroad also have their own "sphere of responsibility" and must be motivated to return and make relevant efforts to maintain contact with Ukraine.

At the personal level, many Ukrainians abroad face a difficult decision - to take root in a new place or wait for a certain moment to return. However, the decision must be honest with oneself and with Ukraine and Ukrainians. If there is a sincere desire to return, the government and Ukrainian society must show support.

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you in general with your current life in … [COUNTRY WHERE THE RESPONDENT NOW LIVES]?

Some Ukrainians abroad plan to return to Ukraine under certain conditions, while others, for various reasons, plan to stay in the new country for a long time. What about you? If you plan to return, under which conditions from this list would you be ready to return to Ukraine? Choose all that apply. RANDOMIZATION OF THE ORDER

Now some Ukrainians abroad are trying to get citizenship of the country where they are. Others do not plan to do so. And what about you?

How do you feel, in the end of the war, Ukraine or Russia will win?

President Volodymyr Zelenskyi has submitted to the Verkhovna Rada a draft law that will enable the introduction of multiple citizenship. In particular, it is proposed to introduce a simplified procedure for acquiring Ukrainian citizenship for Ukrainians who hold the citizenship of another country. This will not apply to citizens of the aggressor state. And what is your general impression of this Law now?

You receive information about news and the latest events in the life of Ukraine from Ukrainian sources, from foreign sources, or from both of these sources?

And if a decision was made to hold elections to the Verkhovna Rada soon in Ukraine, how likely would you be to take part in them or not?

What language do you usually speak at home?