The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

From April 23 to May 1, 2024, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted a public opinion survey of Kyiv residents. Bythemethodofcomputer-assistedtelephoneinterviews(CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with further statistical weighting), 804 respondents living in all districts of Kyiv were interviewed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) residents of the capital, who at the time of the survey lived and were registered in the city of Kyiv.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and without taking into account the design effect) did not exceed 3.5% for indicators close to 50%, 3.1% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1 % - for indicators close to 10%, 1.6% - for indicators close to 5%.

The conducted survey is the second wave. The first wave (according to the same questionnaire) was conducted on October 12-16, 2023.

Under conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. There are various factors that can affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions, which were cited by KIIS earlier. In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of the public mood of the capital's population.

Kyivans remain optimistic about Ukraine's victory in the war, but it is becoming more restrained. So, in October 2023, 91% believed in the victory of Ukraine, now - 85%. It is more important to note that from 74% to 58%, there were fewer people who are definitely convinced of Ukraine's victory. At the same time, believe that Russia will win - 4% (in October 2023 it was 2%).

Graph 1. How do you feel, in the end of the war, Ukraine or Russia will win?

In addition, from 55% to 66%, those who believe that the war will continue for more than a year have increased. The absolute majority of Kyiv residents expect the war to last at least half a year.

Graph2. And how much time, in your opinion, will pass until the end of the war?

Pessimism is also growing somewhat in assessments of changes in the next 12 months in Ukraine and Kyiv, although optimistic moods prevail at the moment. Thus, 51% believe that Ukraine will change for the better in the coming year, against 31% who believe that it will be for the worse (in October 2023, the ratio was 58% to 21%). In the case of Kyiv, 48% expect changes for the better against 22% who expect changes for the worse (in October 2023 – 60% to 15%).

Graph3. What changes in general do you expect during the next 12 months …?

Currently, elections in the city of Kyiv are not planned, and it is not known who could potentially compete for the post of mayor of the capital. Respondents were offered a list of 9 people who could be participants in local races (and the respondent could also name his option). As can be seen, the current mayor of the city, V. Klychko, would receive the most support for such a list of participants - 30% of all respondents would vote for him, which is 52.5% among those who have decided on their choice. M. Poroshenko (6% among all and 10% among those who have decided on their choice), M. Tomenko (6% and 10%), A. Illienko (5% and 8%) follow with approximately the same support (the difference is within the margin of error). Next comes I. Vereshchuk with indicators of 2% and 4%, respectively. The remaining candidates (O. Donii, S. Husovskyi, M. Pozhyvanov, O. Tkachenko) have the support of no more than 1.5% among all respondents and no more than 3% among those who have decided.

At the same time, it is important to note that 30% of all respondents did not object to voting, but did not decide who they would vote for.

Compared to October 2023, the rating of the candidates has practically not changed, and almost all changes are within the margin of error. The only two exceptions are a decrease in the rating of I. Vereshchuk (among those who have decided, from 10% to 4%), as well as an increase in the share of those who named "other" candidates (their option) (from 3% to 10%).

Table 1. Imagine, please, that the war has ended and the elections for the mayor of Kyiv are taking place, in which the following candidates are participating: ... . Would you take part in the elections or not? IF “YES”: Which candidate would you vote for??

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

Among the residents of Kyiv, as well as among the population of the country, the same tendency towards more restrained optimism can be traced. However, it is important that the majority of the population - despite the difficult past six months - retains faith in a better future for the country and the city.

Success in the war definitely remains a priority, the people of Kyiv are participants in the resistance to the enemy and believe that Ukraine will be able to win.    

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

How do you feel, in the end of the war, Ukraine or Russia will win?

And how much time, in your opinion, will pass until the end of the war?

What changes in general do you expect during the next 12 months …?

• In Ukraine
• In Kyiv

Although it is too early to talk about it now, we would like to find out about the current sympathies of Kyivans.

В1. Imagine, please, that the war has ended and the Kyiv mayoral elections are taking place, in which such candidates participate: [READ IN DIFFERENT ORDER]. Would you take part in the elections or not? IF "YES": Which candidate would you vote for? ONE ANSWER