The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

From May 16 to 22, 2024, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus", to which, by order of the public organization Center for Strategic Communications "Forum", questions were added about the 5th anniversary of President V. Zelenskyi. Bythemethodofcomputer-assistedtelephoneinterviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting), 1,002 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (territory under the control of the Government of Ukraine) were interviewed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived on the territory of Ukraine controlled by the Government of Ukraine. The sample did not include residents of territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine (at the same time, out of 1,002 respondents from February 26 to 24, 2022, lived in the territories that are now occupied), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who went abroad after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) did not exceed 3.4% for indicators close to 50%, 3.0% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 5%.

Under conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. Factors that can affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions were previously cited by KIIS.

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of the public moods of the population.

The majority of Ukrainians, according to the KIIS survey, prefer a democratic system to a strong leadership. More than 90% of Ukrainians want to see Ukraine as a fully functioning democracy. Therefore, the issue of building democratic institutions remains one of the priorities for Ukrainians. We asked respondents how the situation with democracy in the country changed during the 5 years of V. Zelenskyi's presidency. At the same time, taking into account the full-scale invasion, if the respondents saw a worsening of the situation, we clarified to what they rather associate the deterioration - with the objective consequences of wartime or with the actions of the authorities, which allegedly curtail the rights and freedoms of citizens.

As can be seen in graph 6, 19% of Ukrainians believe that the situation with democracy has improved, and 29% believe that it has not changed. See certain deterioration - 43%, but among them, 11% primarily associate it with the objective circumstances of the wartime, and 28% - with attempts by the authorities to curtail the rights and freedoms of citizens (another 3% named both reasons).

Graph1. And in general, during the presidency of Volodymyr Zelenskyi, the level of democracy in Ukraine has changed?

IF BELIEVE THAT THE SITUATION HAS WORSEN: In your opinion, the deterioration of the situation with democracy is rather a consequence of the objective circumstances of the martial law or rather a consequence of the authorities' attempts to curtail the rights and freedoms of citizens?

Ukrainians also hope for significant improvements in the economy (and their well-being) with each new President. After a full-scale invasion, we recorded a paradoxical situation, when objectively the situation in the economy became unequivocally worse, but the public evaluated it better than before the invasion. In this survey, we asked respondents about changes in the economy over the past 5 years (with a focus-explanation that we are talking about conditions for development, transparency of rules, fair treatment of business). As in the case of democracy, if respondents saw a deterioration, we specified what this was most likely due to.

Believe that the situation in the economy has improved over the last 5 years - 17%, has not changed - 21%. Almost half of respondents (49%) believe that the situation has worsened, but among them, 16.5% attribute it primarily to a full-scale invasion, and 23% primarily to erroneous actions by the authorities (another 9% cited both reasons).

Graph2. And how has the situation in the economy changed in general during the presidency of Volodymyr Zelenskyi: creation of conditions for development, transparency of rules, fair treatment of business by the authorities, etc?

IF BELIEVE THAT THE SITUATION HAS WORSEN: In your opinion, the worsening of the situation with the economy is rather a consequence of the objective circumstances of a full-scale invasion or rather a consequence of certain erroneous actions of the authorities?

To continue the study of the question of the demand for democracy in Ukraine, the respondents were also asked what form of government should be - with a stronger President or with a stronger parliament? The respondent was offered four options[1]:

• Presidential – the President is the head of state, appoints and dismisses the Prime Minister and determines all policies;
• Presidential-parliamentary – the Government is appointed by the President with the consent of the Parliament, but can be dismissed by both the President and the Parliament. Most of the power is concentrated in the hands of the President;
• Parliamentary-presidential – the Government is appointed by the Parliament with the consent of the President and can only be dismissed by it. Most of the power is in the hands of the Prime Minister;
• Parliamentary – The government is appointed and dismissed only by the parliament. The position of the President either does not exist, or it is ceremonial without significant powers

The results are shown below in graph 3. So, 13% are in favor of a presidential form of government, 27% - in favor of a presidential-parliamentary form of government, 31% - in favor of a parliamentary-presidential form of government, and 16% - in favor of a parliamentary form of government. The remaining 13% could not answer the question.

Although there is no consensus, but at the same time the vast majority of Ukrainians (74%) believe that Ukraine should have an influential parliament, which must at least consent to the appointment of the Government by the President and be able to dismiss it (such 27%, and the remaining 47% see an even stronger role of the parliament). At the same time, 71% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine should have a President, who should also have at least certain serious powers.

Graph3. Which form of government, in your opinion, is the most acceptable for Ukraine?

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

Although no more than a fifth of Ukrainians see an improvement in the sphere of democracy and the economy as a result of V. Zelenskyi's 5-year presidency, at the same time, no more than a quarter note the deterioration of the situation due to the wrong actions of the authorities. It is possible to interpret Ukrainians' perception of changes with democracy and the economy as the absence of outstanding encouraging advances, but also without harsh accusations of the authorities (and taking into account these results and the results of previous surveys, Ukrainians would rather reduce the explanation to the activities of the team / environment and to the objective realities of a full-scale war).  

 Taking into account the historical experience of Ukraine and how the 5-year periods of the previous Presidents ended, the current perception is quite good and leaves considerable space for the President (of course, in the case of taking into account the problems and taking appropriate decisions and actions) to maintain a fairly high level of support and optimism among the population for of the future.

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire and results in the regional dimension

And in general, during the presidency of Volodymyr Zelenskyi, the level of democracy in Ukraine has changed? / IF BELIEVE THAT THE SITUATION HAS WORSEN: In your opinion, the deterioration of the situation with democracy is rather a consequence of the objective circumstances of the martial law or rather a consequence of the authorities' attempts to curtail the rights and freedoms of citizens?

And how has the situation in the economy changed in general during the presidency of Volodymyr Zelenskyi: creation of conditions for development, transparency of rules, fair treatment of business by the authorities, etc.? / IF BELIEVE THAT THE SITUATION HAS WORSEN: In your opinion, the worsening of the situation with the economy is rather a consequence of the objective circumstances of a full-scale invasion or rather a consequence of certain erroneous actions of the authorities?

Which form of government, in your opinion, is the most acceptable for Ukraine?