You can read the publication on the NDI website via this link.

Author: Jerrel Gilliam, Resident Senior Program Manager for the Eurasia team

National Democratic Institute (NDI) recently conducted meetings with political, civic and other partners to share its May 2024 public opinion poll, fielded in May. Since 2015, the NDI has conducted nationwide polling to assess Ukrainian public opinion on a range of topics related to its democratic trajectory, the geopolitical climate, and Ukrainians’ hopes for the future. This is the twenty-second iteration of this survey, and the sixth iteration since Russia launched its full-scale invasion. 

The Resilience of Ukrainian Democratic Values and the Cost of War

The recent survey results tell a story of sacrifice and resolve, particularly Ukrainians’ commitment to democratic values, and Euro-Atlantic integration. The percentage of respondents  wanting Ukraine to become a fully functioning democracy remains consistent and high at 93 percent, while the percentage reporting that they have lost a friend to the conflict has grown with each survey and now stands at 77 percent. Twenty-two percent have lost a family member.  In the last wave of this survey prior to the full-scale invasion (December 2021), 76 percent of Ukrainians claimed that Ukraine becoming a fully-functioning democracy was either important or very important to them. In all six waves of the survey since the full-scale invasion, this figure has not dropped below 93 percent. The commitment to democratic values is also visible in Ukrainian demand for gender equality and increasing demand for equal rights for LGBTQ+ people. In this wave, a strong majority (68 percent) agree with the statement that “LGBT+ people should have the same rights as others.” Ukrainians are also committed to being active participants in their democracy and the rebuilding efforts that are required. Seventy-five percent of those surveyed report that they have either already provided their opinion to local or national authorities to inform their decision-making, or would do so if given the opportunity.

Ninety percent report wanting to become a member of the EU, and 84% wanting to become a member of NATO, with the EU number steady over the past two years and NATO up from 73 percent in 2022. However, Ukrainians recognize that this will not be a short process, with 70 percent predicting that it will take at least two years to become a member of the EU and an identical 70 percent predicting that it will take at least two years to become a member of NATO. (This question was only asked of those that indicated that they expect EU and NATO membership.)

Willingness to engage in negotiations, but to continue to fight if necessary. 

In May 2022, only seven percent of those surveyed believed that the war would last longer than a year. Forty-three percent now believe that the war will last at least one year longer or more, (In both May 2022 and May 2024 “don’t know” remained the most popular response, with 38 percent and 36 percent choosing this option respectively.) Fifty-seven percent believe that Ukraine should engage in negotiations with Russia to try to achieve peace– a return to the levels seen immediately after the full-scale invasion, when 59 percent reported wanting Ukraine to engage in negotiations in the May 2022 survey. However, Ukrainians set clear conditions for such negotiations. Sixty percent are not willing to surrender Crimea and parts of Eastern Ukraine, 77 percent find negotiations on the basis of the territorial status quo unacceptable. Seventy four and 76 percent respectively reject the Russian demand to forgo NATO or EU membership as a price for peace.

Trust in President Zelenskyy and the Armed Forces Remain Relatively High; Elections Desired Only After the War

Trust in the government’s role also remains relatively high compared to surveys conducted prior to the full-scale invasion. In December 2021, only 18 percent of respondents reported trusting President Zelenskyy– those numbers surged after the full-scale invasion and remain solid at 45 percent reporting trusting the President. With elections currently delayed due to the war and the extension of martial law, respondents appear to accept prolonged mandates of elected officials: 72 percent report that elections should only take place after the end of the war. The Armed Forces of Ukraine remains a highly trusted institution, with 91 percent reporting trusting the military and zero respondents reporting that they do not trust the Armed Forces of Ukraine at all. 

###

The National Democratic Institute adheres to the core principles of respondent data protection as outlined in the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) during the conduct of sociological research. Analytical conclusions and interpretations by third parties may not reflect the position of NDI. 

NDI is a non-profit, non-partisan, non-governmental organization that works in partnership around the world to strengthen and safeguard democratic institutions, processes, norms and values to secure a better quality of life for all. NDI envisions a world where democracy and freedom prevail, with dignity for all.

###

You can read the report (in Ukrainian) by following this link.

You can read the report (in English) by following this link.