The press release was prepared by Volodymyr Paniotto and Anton Hrushetskyi

The absolute majority of Ukrainians (at least 87%) support the Independence of Ukraine. Only 0.3% believe that Ukraine should unite with Russia. Absolute support for Independence was a fact even before 2014, but now this support has become even higher.

The attitude towards the Independence Day of Ukraine has radically changed from 2013 to 2024. In 2013, this holiday was the most important or favorite for 12% of Ukrainians, and in 2024 - for 64%. In 2013, it was one of the least popular holidays (only Constitution Day was less popular), and now it is one of the 3 most popular holidays in Ukraine, second only to the two main religious holidays.

Survey methodology:

In the analysis of the attitude towards Independence and the Independence Day holiday of Ukraine, we used the data of omnibus studies of KIIS conducted from 2013 to 2024. The question about which holidays are most important or favorite depends on the date of the survey. The closer to this holiday, the more often respondents mention it. Therefore, to study the dynamics, we usually ask about holidays every year at the same time (in February). Questions about attitudes towards Independence are less dependent on the season of data collection.

Surveys that were conducted in the period until February 2020 were conducted by the method of personal (face-to-face) interviews, after - by the method of telephone interviews (computer-assisted telephone interviews). In terms of geographical coverage, until February 2014, the survey included all territories of Ukraine, after February 2014, temporarily occupied Crimea and certain territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts were not included. After February 2022, surveys do not include new temporarily occupied territories. The sample of each survey is mostly about 1000-2000 respondents.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) did not exceed 2.9%.

Under the conditions of a full-scale invasion, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation can be added, but no more than 5-6% percent.

КМІС регулярно у своїх опитування ставив запитання «Якими б Ви хотіли бачити відносини України з Росією?», де респондентам пропонувалися три варіанти відповідей:

• відносини України з росією мають бути такими ж, як з іншими державами  – із закритими кордонами, візами, митницями;
• Україна й росія мають бути незалежними, але дружніми державами  – з відкритими кордонами, без віз і митниць;
• Україна й росія мають об'єднатися в одну державу.

The question was formulated by the president of KIIS, professor of NaUKMA V. Khmelko back in the 1990s and now, due to the change of context, it needs to be adapted for the future. However, in recent surveys, we asked it in the same wording, as it allows us to correctly analyze the dynamics of public moods.

In the context of attitudes towards Independence, the first two options together correspond to support for Independence, while the third option indicates opponents of Independence. Together, the rest of the undecided respondents, depending on the period of data collection, can be interpreted differently. As of 2024, taking into account the various surveys conducted, we believe that the vast majority of them hesitate between the formats of relations with Russia, but at the same time do not doubt that Ukraine should be independent. That is, the first two options together give the lower limit of those who want to see Ukraine independent, but you can also add the majority of those who are "undecided" about the answer.

The graph below shows the data in dynamics since 2013, that is, there are both data for the period before the Revolution of Dignity, as well as currently relevant opinions and views of the population. It is important to emphasize that as of February 2013 (that is, almost a year before the Revolution of Dignity), the absolute majority of Ukrainians - 81% - supported the Independence of Ukraine (wanted unification with Russia - 16%) (looking further, in the 1990s an average of 64% supported independence and 32% wanted unification with Russia, in the 2000s an average of 73% supported independence and 23% wanted unification with Russia).

Currently, the number of those who support independence (the lower limit) is at least 87% (and the share of those who seek unification with Russia is 0.3%). In addition, 13% are currently undecided about their answer to the question. They could both hesitate and "approach" the camp of opponents of Independence, and hesitate about the format of relations with Russia, but support Independence. In our opinion, as we noted above, most of them are actually supporters of Independence and are rather hesitant about what should be the configuration of relations with Russia (between Independent Ukraine and Russia). Therefore, the actual level of support for independence is higher than the indicated 87% and, most likely, is at least 90-95%.

Another dimension of the perception of Independence is how important this holiday is considered, in particular, in the context of other public holidays. KIIS regularly asks the question "Which of these public holidays of Ukraine are the most important or favorite for you?" and the respondent must choose up to 5 answers. Thus, the respondent ranks the holidays for himself and determines those that are really the most favorite for him or her.

According to our research data, in 2024, the majority of the population of Ukraine celebrates Easter and Christmas as the most popular holidays, with percentages of 70% and 68%, respectively. And then there is the Independence Day of Ukraine - 64%. For Ukrainians, Independence Day is now the most important non-religious holiday. The next most popular is the Day of Defenders of Ukraine (58%).

The New Year, which is solemnly celebrated all over the world and which shared the first place with Christmas and Easter in 2024, is only in fifth place with a percentage of 47%. Constitution Day, International Women's Day, and Trinity Day have 28%, 21%, and 17%, respectively. The least popular holidays this year are Victory Day and Labor Day (May 1) - only 11% and 4% of Ukrainians celebrate these dates as favorite or important.

Graph2.  Which holidays are the most popular (important or favorite) among the population of Ukraine, February 2024

As we can see, the attitude towards the Independence Day of Ukraine has changed radically. In 2013, this holiday was the most important or favorite for 12% of Ukrainians, and in 2024 - 64%. In 2013, it was one of the least popular holidays (only Constitution Day was less popular), and now it is one of the 3 most popular holidays in Ukraine, second only to the two main religious holidays. Moreover, the most significant changes occurred after a large-scale invasion.

Graph3.  % of those who consider Ukraine's Independence Day the most important or favorite, 2013-2024

V. Paniotto, A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

When we came to prepare our interpretations / comments on the results of the above surveys, we found that our considerations that we published in 2023 remain absolutely relevant (which, in particular, also shows the persistence of public moods about Independence Day and Independence itself). It is appropriate to remind them once again:

"More than 20 years ago, in 2000, a friend of Ukraine, Andrew Wilson, a British researcher, published a book on the history of Ukraine with the interesting title "Ukrainians: An Unexpected Nation." Although for a large part of the Western public, Ukraine was an "unexpected nation" (and even remained so until 2022), it was not so for the Ukrainians themselves.

Surveys of the KIIS (which studied the opinions and views of the population throughout the period of Ukraine's independence) testified to the awareness of the importance and growth of support for Independence, the formation of a modern Ukrainian civil nation. Yes, discussions on certain issues and vectors of Ukraine's development were very emotional. However, Ukrainians themselves saw Ukraine as an independent state.

We specifically "reminded" of the public moods in 2013, before the Revolution of Dignity and before the beginning of Russian aggression. And in that period - before the dramatic events - the absolute majority of Ukrainians saw Ukraine as independent. That is why Russia first failed in 2014 with the "Russian Spring", and in 2022 it failed with the rapid occupation of Ukraine. The Ukrainian nation and the cultivation of Independence were formed even before 2014, and the aggression of Russia only accelerated the steady historical processes. In the crucible of a brutal war, the Ukrainian nation finally hardened its strength and demonstrated an iron will to live."

Annex 1. Formulation of the question

Which of these public holidays of Ukraine are the most important or favorite for you? Please specify no more than 5 holidays. NO MORE THAN 5 ANSWER OPTIONS

February 2024

How would you like to see Ukraine's relations with Russia?

May 2024

Annex 2. Tables

Which of these holidays are the most important or favorite for you? Please specify no more than 5 holidays.

* telephone survey (CATI), in previous years there was a F2F interview

How would you like to see Ukraine's relations with Russia?