The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

During September 1-6, 2024, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus", to which, on its own initiative, added a question about the desire to move to the USA / EU. Bythemethodofcomputer-assistedtelephoneinterviews(CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting), 1,022 respondents were interviewed in all regions of Ukraine (territory under the control of the Government of Ukraine). The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived on the territory of Ukraine controlled by the Government of Ukraine. The sample did not include residents of territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine (at the same time, part of the respondents are IDPs who moved from the occupied territories), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who went abroad after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) did not exceed 4.1% for indicators close to 50%, 3.5% for indicators close to 25%, 2.5% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.8% - for indicators close to 5%.

Under the conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. Factors that can affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions were previously cited by the KIIS.

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of the public moods of the population.

In October 2020, KIIS conducted an all-Ukrainian telephone survey, where, among other things, a question was asked "And if you were now granted US or EU citizenship without conditions, would you go to these countries for permanent residence?"[1]. At that time, 28% of all adult Ukrainians were ready to go live abroad. In September 2022, that is, half a year after the full-scale invasion, the KIIS repeated the question, and the share of those who wanted to move abroad decreased to 7% (the decrease occurred, of course, because some people who wanted to move did their desire against the background of the invasion, but also to a large extent - and due to the growth of patriotism and optimism about the future of Ukraine)[2]. In September 2024 (after two and a half years of full-scale invasion), the KIIS asked this question again.

As can be seen in Graph 1, readiness to move abroad has increased to 19% compared to September 2022, but remains significantly lower than in 2020. At the same time, the absolute majority of Ukrainians - 79% - continue to claim that even in the event of obtaining US / EU citizenship, they would still remain in Ukraine.

Graph 1. Would you move to live in the USA / EU if you were granted citizenship without conditions

In all regions of Ukraine[3] there is a trend towards an increase in the share of those who are ready to move abroad, but, firstly, everywhere (except the East) the current indicator is lower than in 2020 (in the East, the indicators are the same as in 2020). Second, in all regions, the absolute majority (from 75-81%) would not like to move abroad, but want to stay in Ukraine.

Graph2. Would move to live in the USA / EU, if were granted citizenship without conditions, in the regional dimension

Graph 3 shows the results by age group. Among all age groups there is also an increase in the share of those who would like to move abroad, however among all age groups, 74-86% want to stay living in Ukraine.

It is important to pay attention to the mood among the youth of Ukraine. Yes, among 18-29-year-old Ukrainians in 2020, almost half (46%) would like to move abroad. By September 2022, the indicator decreased to 13%, then by September 2024 it increased to 26%. Although the growth is noticeable, 74% of Ukrainians under the age of 30 still want to stay in Ukraine. A similar trend is typical for 30-44 year olds (among whom currently 75% do not want to move from Ukraine).

Graph3. Would move to live in the USA / EU, if were granted citizenship without conditions, among certain age categories

And finally, on graph 4, the data are shown separately for men and women aged 25-55, that is, in the main mobilization age. As can be seen, the vast majority of men aged 25-55 (70%) would not want to move from Ukraine. Would like - 27%. Among women aged 25-55, 80% would not want to move from Ukraine, 18% would.

We specifically present the results for both men and women (in particular, in the dynamics) to show that the desire to move for men cannot be reduced exclusively to mobilization. For example, in 2020, significantly more men would like to move abroad than women. Simultaneously in any case, the vast majority of Ukrainian men of mobilization age would not want to leave Ukraine even if they had legal opportunities.

Graph4. Would move to live in the USA / EU if were granted citizenship without conditions, among men and women aged 25-55

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

The outflow of the population, especially young Ukrainians, is a chronic Ukrainian problem throughout the years of Independence, which became especially acute after the full-scale invasion. The demographic situation in Ukraine is definitely complex, as stated by leading Ukrainian experts (for example, E. Libanova) and foreign institutions (for example, high-profile CIA data that Ukraine is one of the leaders in terms of mortality and anti-leaders in terms of birth rate).

At the same time, the difficult conditions of wartime and a long full-scale war, growing anxiety and fatigue, create a favorable space for the spread of manipulations about the mood of Ukrainians. It is not uncommon to see narratives (both from hostile propaganda sources and from individual Ukrainian subjects) that "Ukrainians want to leave Ukraine and settle in the West" or "Ukraine is a concentration camp that restricts the rights of the population, in particular men" (and the corresponding interpretation that "actually" Ukrainians do not want to stay and defend their land).

The results of the survey show that, in fact, the majority of Ukrainians (in particular, Ukrainian men of mobilization age and younger / middle-aged women) want to stay in Ukraine despite all the existing difficulties and risks. The media-wide image of a young man swimming across the Tysa or a young woman going to Europe to live a better life is not representative of the men and women of Ukraine. Undoubtedly, there are problems, but Ukrainians keep faith in Ukraine, keep faith in a better future and demonstrate readiness to stay and work to achieve the dream future.

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

And if you were now granted the citizenship of the USA or the European Union without conditions, you would go to these countries for permanent residence?