The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

From September 20 to October 3, 2024, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus", to which, on its own initiative, added questions about whether Ukraine is capable of achieving success with the support of the West, and how Ukrainians in general perceive Western politics measures regarding Ukraine. By the method of telephone interviews (computer-assistedtelephoneinterviews, CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting), 989 respondents were interviewed in all regions of Ukraine (territory under the control of the Government of Ukraine). The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived on the territory of Ukraine controlled by the Government of Ukraine. The sample did not include residents of territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine (at the same time, part of the respondents are IDPs who moved from the occupied territories), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who went abroad after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) did not exceed 4.1% for indicators close to 50%, 3.5% for indicators close to 25%, 2.5% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.8% - for indicators close to 5%.

Under the conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. Factors that can affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions were previously cited by the KIIS.

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of the public moods of the population.

Ukrainians are fully aware of the importance of Western support for the ability to effectively resist Russian aggression. At the same time, from the very beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukrainians viewed it as a joint confrontation between the allies of Ukraine and the West against the aggressor Russia. In September 2022, 80% of Ukrainians considered the successes of the Ukrainian army as a joint achievement of Ukraine and the West[1]. In the same survey, 73% expressed confidence that the West wants Ukraine to end the war on acceptable terms[2]. In February 2023, 81% of Ukrainians believed that cooperation between Ukraine and the West to repel Russian aggression is a "win-win" situation, where both Ukraine and the West benefit[3].

At the same time, in February 2024, most respondents (57%) counted adequate support from the West as critical success factors[4]. And the most important thing is that in December 2023, 87% of Ukrainians believed that Ukraine is capable of achieving success with proper support from the West[5].

In September 2024, given the difficulties Ukraine and Ukrainians are facing, we once again asked the question whether Ukraine, with adequate support from the West, can succeed.

As can be seen, currently, the absolute majority of Ukrainians – 81% – continue to believe that Ukraine is capable of success if the West provides adequate support. Believe that Russia is hopelessly strong - 14% (in December 2023 it was 7%). Another 6% of respondents could not decide on their opinion.

Graph 1. And what is your opinion about Ukraine's ability to succeed in the war, provided that it has the proper support from the West?

The graph below shows the data by region of residence of the respondents[6]. In all regions, the majority - from 67% in the East to 87% in the West - believe that Ukraine is capable of achieving success in the war.

At the same time, between December 2023 and September 2024, in all regions except the West, there were fewer people who believe in the possibility of success. In particular, the greatest decrease is observed in the East, where in December 2023 79% believed in the possibility of success, and now - 67% (at the same time, in the East, 24% already believe that Russia is too strong).

Graph 2. Possibility of achieving success with the proper support of the West in the regional dimension

Since September 2022, KIIS has been monitoring the prevalence of the narrative about "Western fatigue." The spread of the narrative about the "Western fatigue" is dangerous, as it undermines the belief in victory and actually contradicts the active support of Ukraine by a number of Western countries. However, in conditions where Russia is increasing its production and receiving help from other totalitarian regimes, the current support from certain Western states is not enough. In addition, Western aid does not always arrive on time, and statements by individual Western politicians and public figures carry risks of undermining current levels of aid delivery.

In September 2022, only 15% of Ukrainians shared the narrative that the West is tired of Ukraine and wants an unfair peace for Ukraine. Instead, 73% believed that the West wants the war to end on terms acceptable to Ukraine. During 2023, critical moods began to grow, and in December 2023 already 30% believed that the West was tired of Ukraine. By February 2024, the indicator increased to 44%.

Between February and September 2024, the share of those who believe that the West is tired of Ukraine decreased to 38%. At the same time, currently 54% of Ukrainians believe that the West wants an acceptable end to the war for Ukraine.

Graph 3. And with which statement regarding the West's support for Ukraine do you agree to a greater extent?

In the graph below, the data are shown in a regional dimension. In all regions, the narrative about the "tired West" is quite widespread. Although it is important to note that mainly the improvement of the situation (between February and September 2024) took place in the South and East (although the indicators remain significantly below the level of 2022).

Graph 4. Perception of Western policy towards Ukraine in the regional dimension

Preliminary results (above) are based on our monitoring questions. To correctly track the dynamics, it is important to keep the wording of the question. At the same time, the context often changes, and this raises the question of the feasibility of updating the wording.

Therefore, in this survey, we also asked some respondents questions about the West's policy in a slightly different wording, namely, we made a separate additional option that "the West is tired of Ukraine, but does not push for an unjust peace" (in addition to the two main options). As you can see, in this case, the mood of Ukrainians is a little more critical. Thus, 47% of respondents chose the option that the West wants an acceptable end to the war for Ukraine. On the other hand, 46% talk about the fatigue of the West, but half of them feel pressure from the West for unacceptable concessions, and half - that there is no such pressure (only "fatigue").

Graph 5. Perception of the West's policy towards Ukraine (alternative wording)

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

Ukrainians have well-founded reasons to be upset by the volume and pace of the supply of weapons and other support from the West. However, at the same time, most Ukrainians are aware of the existential nature of the war and that Russia and the Russians seek the destruction of Ukraine and Ukrainians[7]. Accordingly, we do not have a large selection of possible partners if we want to survive. The West remains the only option for Ukraine to achieve acceptable success and create a foundation for the further development of a protected, economically prosperous, democratic Ukraine.

It is critically important that despite the complexity of the war and objective fatigue, the absolute majority of Ukrainians believe in the possibility of achieving success together with our Western allies. We call on Western government officials and Western leaders of public opinion to hear the voice of the Ukrainian people and to continue and strengthen support for Ukraine and Ukrainians. Ukrainians retain the will to fight.

Separately, we call on the Ukrainian authorities, Ukrainian civil society, journalists, and ordinary citizens to act as a consolidated team in promoting Ukraine's interests abroad. Satisfying one's own selfish interests, built on constant criticism of Ukraine's diplomatic actions (and not on constructive interaction as a single team), is irresponsible and greatly harms Ukraine.

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

And what is your opinion about Ukraine's ability to succeed in the war, provided that it has the proper support from the West? RANDOMIZATION OF THE ORDER

RANDOMIZATION OF FOLLOWING QUESTIONS (ONLY ONE QUESTION IS READ TO THE RESPONDENT)

And with which statement regarding the West's support for Ukraine do you agree to a greater extent? RANDOMIZATION OF THE ORDER

OR:

And with which statement regarding the West's support for Ukraine do you agree to a greater extent? RANDOMIZATION OF READING ORDER: 1-2-3 OR 3-2-1