The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

From December 2 to 17, 2024, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus", to which, on its own initiative, added a question about the perception of D. Trump's victory. By the method of telephone interviews (computer-assistedtelephoneinterviews, CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting) in all regions of Ukraine (the territory controlled by the Government of Ukraine), 985 respondents were interviewed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived in the territory of Ukraine controlled by the Government of Ukraine. The sample did not include residents of territories temporarily not controlled by the Ukrainian authorities (at the same time, some of the respondents are IDPs who moved from the occupied territories), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who left abroad after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) did not exceed 4.1% for indicators close to 50%, 3.5% for indicators close to 25%, 2.5% for indicators close to 10%, 1.8% for indicators close to 5%.

In wartime, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. Factors that may affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions were previously cited by KIIS.

In general, we believe that the results obtained still retain a high level of representativeness and allow for a fairly reliable analysis of public moods of the population.

D. Trump won the USA presidential election. Despite the rather restrained public messages from the Ukrainian authorities during the election campaign (which largely focused on the bipartisan support for Ukraine from both major parties in the USA and the readiness to cooperate with any government), the Ukrainian media were filled with truly turbulent emotions, often including concerns that if D. Trump wins, the situation with support for Ukraine could significantly deteriorate.

By early December 2024, D. Trump and those close to him had made a number of statements about future policy towards Ukraine, in particular, about the intention to end the war as soon as possible. Therefore, in our survey, we decided to ask how Ukrainians themselves perceive D. Trump's victory in terms of the prospects for ending the war.

First, we asked whether D. Trump's victory brings peace in Ukraine closer or further away. Ukrainians' assessments – quite noticeable confidence that peace has become closer. So, almost half – 45% – believe that D. Trump’s victory brings peace closer. However, of those who believe that peace is getting much closer – 15%, and the remaining 30% say that peace is getting only a little closer.

On the contrary, 14% say that the peace is becoming more distant (5% say it is becoming significantly distant, 9% say it is somewhat distant). The remaining 40% either believe that nothing will change or are undecided.

Graph  1. Donald Trump won the USA election and will become President of the USA in January. In your opinion, is the election of Donald Trump approaching  or distancing the end of hostilities in Ukraine?

In the graph below, the data are shown in a regional dimension[1]. In general, one can see a trend towards restraint in assessments, albeit with some slight optimism.

Graph 2. Is D. Trump's victory approaching peace in Ukraine in the regional dimension

The approach of peace does not mean that it can be fair for Ukraine. Therefore, we asked a second question - whether under President D. Trump Ukraine can count on a fair peace. As can be seen in the graph below, a minority of Ukrainians have categorical views on this issue. Thus, only 7% are convinced that peace can be completely fair for Ukraine. And only 11% believe that peace will be completely unfair for Ukraine. The majority of Ukrainians are between these extreme opinions and the question is more in proportion - whether there will be more fulfillment of Ukraine's demands or, conversely, more fulfillment of Russia's demands.

Overall, 23% of Ukrainians believe that under D. Trump, peace will be mostly or completely fair for Ukraine. 31% believe that it will be mostly or completely unfair. Another 29% believe that there will be both fulfillment of Ukraine's demands and concessions from Russia, and it is difficult to say which will be more. The remaining 18% could not decide on their opinion.

Graph 3. And how do you feel that under USA President Trump, Ukraine can count on …?

The graph below shows the data in regional dimesion. In general, in all regions, one can see rather high uncertainty.

Graph 4. Can Ukraine count on fair peace in the regional dimension

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

D. Trump's victory does not cause euphoria or depression among Ukrainians. Rather, expectations are cautious and expectant, with perhaps some restrained optimism or at least a sense of bringing "freshness" to the situation with the prospects of war.

Ukrainians are grateful for the assistance provided by the current USA administration and realize its importance. At the same time, a significant part of Ukrainians (if not the majority) is not left with a feeling of bitterness about the missed opportunities in previous periods due to excessive caution and the notorious “escalation management”. Even now, about 80% of Ukrainians believe in the possibility of success in the war with proper support from Western allies, but there is an acute feeling of untimely and insufficient sending of weapons. Against this background, a number of statements by senior USA officials that Ukraine supposedly does not need weapons so much are at best surprising, although in reality they are irritating.

That is why this background creates an atmosphere in which the election of D. Trump does not cause unambiguously pessimistic assessments, but instead we see cautious forecasts and expectations for January, when D. Trump will receive presidential powers.  

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from questionnaire

Donald Trump won the USA election and will become President of the USA in January. In your opinion, is the election of Donald Trump approaching or distancing the end of hostilities in Ukraine?

And how do you feel that under USAPresident Trump, Ukraine can count on …