The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

During February 2-6, 2025, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus", to which, at the request of the public organization Center for Strategic Communications "Forum", a question was added regarding the direction of affairs in Ukraine. By the method of telephone interviews (computer-assistedtelephoneinterviews, CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting) in all regions of Ukraine (the territory controlled by the Government of Ukraine), 1,000 respondents were interviewed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived in the territory of Ukraine controlled by the Government of Ukraine. The sample did not include residents of territories temporarily not controlled by the Ukrainian authorities (at the same time, some of the respondents are IDPs who moved from the occupied territories), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who left abroad after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) did not exceed 4.1% for indicators close to 50%, 3.5% for indicators close to 25%, 2.5% for indicators close to 10%, 1.8% for indicators close to 5%.

Under the conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. Factors that may affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions were previously cited by KIIS.

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of the public moods of the population.

Sociologists often ask the question in which direction affairs are generally going in the country. Indeed, the situation in society can be described by a number of different indicators, which can often be opposite (i.e. Ukrainians can be satisfied with something and at the same time dissatisfied with something else). However, people often have an integrated perception / feeling / observation of what the current state of affairs is.

The graph below shows the results starting from May 2022. As can be seen, at the start of the full-scale invasion, 68% believed that affairs were generally going in the right direction, while 16% believed that affairs were going in the wrong direction.

Then the share of those who spoke about the right direction gradually decreased, while the share of those who spoke about the wrong direction increased (some increase in April 2024 may be due to the fact that the survey was conducted after the US approved aid to Ukraine after a long delay). As of early February 2025, 38% believed that affairs were going in the right direction, while 46% believed that affairs were going in the wrong direction.

Graph 1. In your opinion, are affairs in Ukraine developing in the wrong or right direction?

The graph below shows the situation in terms of regions[1]. As can be seen, the situation is quite similar in all regions.

Graph2. Perception of the direction of affairs in the regional dimension

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

KIIS surveys at the end of 2024 showed that despite all the difficult circumstances and uncertainty, the majority of Ukrainians maintained an optimistic view of the future. At the same time, there is indeed a tendency towards increasing pessimism, and the results of the current survey on the direction of affairs additionally show that there are many issues that concern Ukrainians.

Ukraine has been living in a full-scale war for almost three years, and the challenges of early 2025 – war with Russia, cooperation with international partners, internal issues – seem to only intensify. Given the existential nature of the threats, we – all Ukrainians, regardless of our professional activities or party colors – must maintain solidarity and mutual support. Only together will we be able to get through this difficult period.

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

НIn your opinion, are affairs in Ukraine developing in the wrong or right direction?