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Electoral mood of the population of Ukraine in March 2013
Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted a nationwide opinion poll following the request of the fund "Democratic Initiatives" during the period of March 6–12, 2013. The survey was held in 109 locations (PSU) in all regions of Ukraine and Crimea. 2037 respondents were interviewed; sample was random with quota selection at the last stage$ sample was representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 years and older. Error calculations for quota sampling are irrelevant; but if we had a completely random sample of the same size, the statistical error (with a probability of 0.95 and a design-effect of 1.5) would not exceed:
Below you can see the distribution of the answers to the following question: "If pre-scheduled elections of the President of Ukraine were assigned, for whom would you vote?", provided that the list of candidates include the name of Yulia Tymoshenko:
That is, if there were scheduled early elections with the defined above conditions at the beginning of March 2013, 67% of population would participate in the first stage of the elections (the same we had in the first stage of the previous presidential elections). And the leaders with quantity of votes enough to continue to the second stage of the elections would be:
Distribution of answers to the question "If the second stage of presidential elections contained Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych, for whom would you vote?" is as follows:
That is, the second stage of voting for the candidates Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych would be attended by about 58% of voters and elections results would be as follows:
Distribution of answers to the question “And if it happens that Yulia Tymoshenko would not participate in the elections whom would you vote for then?” is as follows:
That is, if there were scheduled early elections with the defined above conditions at the beginning of March 2013, 65% of population would participate in the first stage of the elections. And the leaders with quantity of votes enough to continue to the second stage of the elections would be: Viktor Yanukovych (with 33% of votes) and Vitaliy Klytschko — from 24% votes. Distribution of answers to the question "If the second stage of presidential elections contained Viktor Yanukovych and Vitaliy Klychko, for whom would you vote?" is as follows:
That is, the second stage of voting for the candidates Viktor Yanukovych and Vitaliy Klychko would be attended by about 65% of voters and elections results would be as follows:
Distribution of answers to the question "If the second stage of presidential elections contained Viktor Yanukovych and Arseniy Yatseniuk, for whom would you vote?" is as follows:
Distribution of answers to the question "If the second stage of presidential elections contained Viktor Yanukovych and Oleg Tyagnybok, for whom would you vote?" is as follows:
Regional distribution of supporters of these four candidates among population of Ukraine aged 18 and older looks as follows1:
If the second stage of presidential elections contained Viktor Yanukovych and Vitaliy Klychko, for whom would you vote?
If the second stage of presidential elections contained Viktor Yanukovych and Arseniy Yatseniuk, for whom would you vote?
If the second stage of presidential elections contained Viktor Yanukovych and Oleg Tyagnybok, for whom would you vote?"
Percent distribution of votes of population of Ukraine aged 18 and older between the beforementioned four candidates looks as follows:
If the second stage of presidential elections contained Viktor Yanukovych and Vitaliy Klychko, for whom would you vote?
If the second stage of presidential elections contained Viktor Yanukovych and Arseniy Yatseniuk, for whom would you vote?
If the second stage of presidential elections contained Viktor Yanukovych and Oleg Tyagnybok, for whom would you vote?"
1 West: Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky, Transcarpathian and Chernivtsi (22% of voters); Central Region: Zhitomir, Vinnitsa, Kirovograd, Cherkassy, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv region and the city of Kyiv (30% of voters); South: Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhya and Crimea (26% of voters); East: Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk (22% of voters).
15.3.2013
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