The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

During February 2-6, 2025, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus", to which, at the request of the public organization Center for Strategic Communications "Forum", questions were added regarding the perception of how ready Ukraine was for the invasion. By the method of telephone interviews (computer-assistedtelephoneinterviews, CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting) in all regions of Ukraine (the territory controlled by the Government of Ukraine), 1,000 respondents were interviewed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived in the territory of Ukraine controlled by the Government of Ukraine. The sample did not include residents of territories temporarily not controlled by the Ukrainian authorities (at the same time, some of the respondents are IDPs who moved from the occupied territories), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who left abroad after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) did not exceed 4.1% for indicators close to 50%, 3.5% for indicators close to 25%, 2.5% for indicators close to 10%, 1.8% for indicators close to 5%.

Under the conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. Factors that may affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions were previously cited by KIIS.

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of the public moods of the population.

On the eve of a large-scale invasion, KIIS asked respondents how real they thought an invasion was – then 49% considered the possibility of an invasion to be real, and 39% answered that there would be no invasion (with residents of the South and East believing more in the impossibility of an invasion). Another question is how Ukrainians perceive Ukraine’s preparations for an invasion. KIIS in May 2022 and in February 2025 (on the eve of the third anniversary of the invasion) asked respondents how much Ukraine had done enough or not enough to prepare for the attack.

As can be seen, both in May 2022 and in February 2025, Ukrainians mostly believed that Ukraine had done more or less than enough to prepare. Moreover, critical assessments even increased – from 52% in May 2022 to 81% in February 2025, there were more people who believed that the efforts made were insufficient (of these 81%, 43% believe that the efforts were completely insufficient, and the remaining 38% believe that the efforts were rather insufficient, although they admit that something was done). They believe that Ukraine has made enough efforts – 13% (in May 2022, there were 43%).

Graph 1. Western intelligence agencies have been publicly warning since early November 2021 that Russia was preparing an attack. About 4 months passed from the first warnings to the start of the invasion in February 2022. In your opinion, did Ukraine do enough or not enough to prepare for the attack during this time?

In all regions of Ukraine[1] the majority of the population believes that Ukraine's efforts were insufficient.

Graph2. Assessment of the adequacy of preparation for an attack in the regional dimension

Respondents who answered that Ukraine was rather or completely unprepared for the invasion were asked an additional question about possible reasons, in their opinion.

The survey results show that there is no clear consensus and vision among the population about the reasons for the insufficient readiness for the invasion. Thus, relatively most respondents said that the political authorities failed to make the necessary efforts (41% among those who believe that Ukraine was not ready), and that the population itself did not believe and did not prepare (32%).

In addition, quite a few respondents spoke about the influence of pro-Russian forces and agents (21%), insufficient support from the West (16%), and the fact that Russia had too many resources (15%). Relatively least often, respondents chose such answers as the fact that the military command was unable to make the necessary efforts (13%), and that it was objectively impossible to prepare and take everything into account during this period (10%).

Graph 3. For what reasons, in your opinion, was Ukraine initially unprepared for the invasion? Choose up to 2 answers.

% among respondents who consider preparation to be rather or completely insufficient

In all regions, there is a lack of clear consensus and respondents gave a motley palette of answers and explanations.

Table 1. Reasons for insufficient readiness for invasion in the regional dimension

% among respondents who consider training to be rather or completely insufficient

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

As of the beginning of the summer of 2023, 78% of KIIS respondents said that they had relatives or friends who were injured or killed as a result of the invasion. This is a colossal tragedy for society as a whole and for each family separately, and this tragedy, unfortunately, continues. Therefore, the demand of Ukrainians for the “truth” and “punishment of the guilty” is quite natural. Achieving justice on this issue will be an unconditional requirement for the period after the end of the war, acceptable to Ukraine (especially since we now see the lack of a unified understanding among Ukrainians of the complex of real reasons for insufficient readiness, which, apparently, is a consequence of the fact that while the war is going on, a significant part of the information for security reasons and for reasons of “do no harm” must be temporarily hidden from the public).

At the same time, we call on the public to always remember that, regardless of the possible miscalculations of Ukraine and its Western friends during the preparation for the invasion, we must categorically reject victim-blaming, that is, when the victim is accused of being guilty of something. The only culprit of the invasion and hundreds of thousands of broken destinies is Russia and the imperial-minded Russians. They are the enemy and every Ukrainian must remember this.

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

Western intelligence agencies have been publicly warning since early November 2021 that Russia was preparing an attack. About 4 months passed from the first warnings to the start of the invasion in February 2022. In your opinion, did Ukraine do enough or not enough to prepare for the attack during this time?

 [IF IN THE PREVIOUS 3 OR 4] For what reasons, in your opinion, was Ukraine initially unprepared for the invasion? Choose up to 2 answers. DIFFERENT ORDER