The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

From February 14 to March 4, 2025, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus", to which, on its own initiative, added a question about the perception of Russia's goal in the war against Ukraine. By the method of telephone interviews (computer-assistedtelephoneinterviews, CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting) in all regions of Ukraine (the territory controlled by the Government of Ukraine), 1,029 respondents were surveyed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived in the territory of Ukraine controlled by the Government of Ukraine. The sample did not include residents of territories temporarily not controlled by the Ukrainian authorities (at the same time, some of the respondents are IDPs who moved from the occupied territories), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who left abroad after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) did not exceed 4.1% for indicators close to 50%, 3.5% for indicators close to 25%, 2.5% for indicators close to 10%, 1.8% for indicators close to 5%.

Under the conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. Factors that may affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions were previously cited by KIIS.

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of the public moods of the population.

In May 2024, KIIS asked how Ukrainians in general assess Russia's goal in the war against Ukraine[1]. Since it is increasingly common to hear opinions (especially from Western partners) that Russia will only need to maintain control over the already occupied territories, in February-March 2025 we asked a similar question, but asked about Russia’s current goal (which is the goal for now), and slightly updated the list of answer options. Now respondents had to choose one of the options – from the option that Russia simply wants to “denazify” and demilitarize Ukraine without encroaching on sovereignty (an option that corresponds to pro-Russian narratives), to the option that Russia wants to commit physical genocide of Ukrainians.

Our surveys show that the higher threat Ukrainians perceive, the more they are willing to continue the resistance and reject unacceptable demands. Accordingly, spreading the narrative and persuasion that Russia has “limited” its goals and/or is ready for peace on “compromise” terms may undermine internal readiness to continue the struggle.

So, the vast majority of Ukrainians – 66% – believe that Russia’s current goal is to destroy Ukraine and Ukrainians: Russia wants to either commit physical genocide against Ukrainians (28%), or seize all/most of Ukraine’s territory and destroy Ukrainian statehood and the nation (38%).

In addition, another 14% believe that Russia wants to seize all or most of the territory and establish a puppet government. 7% believe that Russia wants to seize all of Donbas and Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Thus, 87% of Ukrainians believe that Russia does not want to stop at already occupied territories.

Graph 1. In your opinion, what goal is Russia currently setting for itself in the war against Ukraine?

Only 4% believe that Russia only wants to preserve the already occupied territories. And only 3% chose the option that Russia only wants to “denazify” and demilitarize Ukraine. The remaining 7% could not answer the question.

In all regions of Ukraine[2] the absolute majority (from 80% in the East and South to 89-90% in the West and Center) believe that Russia will not stop at the already occupied territories. Also, 70% in the West, 68% in the Center, 62% in the South believe that Russia wants to commit physical genocide or destroy Ukrainian statehood and the nation. In the East, the indicator is also high - 46%.

Table 1. Perception of Russia's goal in the war against Ukraine in the regional dimension

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

From our Western partners (officials, experts, journalists), as well as from individual Ukrainian subjects, one can often hear that Ukrainians are “very tired”. And “between the lines” one can understand the following thought – Ukrainians are striving for peace at all costs. Ukrainians are indeed tired, but in all our surveys we see that Ukrainians are still categorically against peace “under any conditions”. That is, despite fatigue, the will to fight remains undeniable and the majority of Ukrainians are ready to endure war for as long as necessary.

One explanation for such amazing resilience is a sense of existential threat. Nowadays, one can often hear the statement of G. Meir, “You cannot negotiate with someone who has come to kill you.” For the average Ukrainian, these words fully reflect the realities of the brutal war that Russia has been waging against Ukraine for many years under false pretenses.

Ukrainians are quite flexible and ready to discuss even painful options for ending the war. At the same time, Ukrainians are ready to continue to defend their “red lines” (which consist in the survival of the Ukrainian nation, preservation of sovereignty and guarantees of security) and are definitely not going to simply lay down their arms and surrender to the mercy of the enemy.

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from questionnaire

In your opinion, what goal is Russia currently setting for itself in the war against Ukraine?