The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

From May 2 to 12, 2025, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus", to which, on its own initiative, added questions about the perception of individual peace plans to end the war. By the method of telephone interviews (computer-assistedtelephoneinterviews, CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting) in all regions of Ukraine (the territory controlled by the Government of Ukraine), 1,010 respondents were surveyed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived in the territory of Ukraine controlled by the Government of Ukraine. The sample did not include residents of territories temporarily not controlled by the Ukrainian authorities (at the same time, some of the respondents are IDPs who moved from the occupied territories), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who left abroad after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) did not exceed 4.1% for indicators close to 50%, 3.5% for indicators close to 25%, 2.5% for indicators close to 10%, 1.8% for indicators close to 5%.

Under the conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. Factors that may affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions were previously cited by KIIS.

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of the public moods of the population.

In April 2025, information about the details of the USA peace plan appeared in the media and from public figures[1], as well as the details of another plan that represented a common position between Europe and Ukraine[2] (which was formed in response to USA proposals). In addition, Russia continues to reiterate its demands for peace.

In a typical survey (especially a telephone survey), we cannot discuss the plans in detail with respondents, as each plan includes many components. Therefore, we have prepared three shortened versions with, in our opinion, particularly important (from the point of view of public perception) elements. We are aware that the shortened versions cannot claim to be a complete reproduction of the proposed plans, but we believe that in our research version we have covered the important components and were able (as will be shown below) to clarify the differences in perception.

Only one of the three plan options was randomly selected and read to the respondent (to avoid the effect of the order of the questions). At the same time, we did not say that this plan was from the USA / from Europe with Ukraine / from Russia, since the “authorship” of the plan in the text of the question can significantly affect the perception by the respondents. That is, we only read the conditions (which were also read in different orders to different respondents) and asked to answer how acceptable this plan was overall. Below is what we read to the respondents.

Conditional plan of the USA:

• A group of European states, but without the USA, give Ukraine security guarantees
• Russia retains control over occupied territories
• USA officially recognizes Crimea as part of Russia
• Ukraine moves towards joining the EU
• USA and Europe lift all sanctions against Russia

Conditional plan of Europe and Ukraine:

• Ukraine receives reliable security guarantees from Europe and the USA
• Russia retains control over the occupied territories, but Ukraine and the world do not officially recognize this
• Ukraine moves towards joining the EU
• After establishing a sustainable peace, the USA gradually eases its sanctions against Russia

Conditional plan of Russia:

• Ukraine must significantly reduce its army and limit its armaments
• Ukraine permanently renounces NATO membership
• The cities of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and the entire territory of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts come under Russian control
• Ukraine officially recognizes all occupied territories as part of Russia and renounces them permanently
• Ukraine moves towards joining the EU
• The USA and Europe lift all sanctions against Russia

So, the following conclusions can be drawn. First, the absolute majority of Ukrainians – 82% – categorically reject Russia’s plan to establish peace. Only 10% of respondents can agree to Russia's demands.

Secondly, 29% of respondents may accept the USA conditional plan (moreover, mostly the respondents emphasize that this option is difficult for them), but the majority – 61% – consider it categorically unacceptable.

At the same time, thirdly, a joint plan between Europe and Ukraine is much more popular. In this case, 51% of Ukrainians, although without enthusiasm, can support it. Consider the joint plan between Europe and Ukraine completely unacceptable – 40%.

Graph 1. There are different options for ending the war. Now I will read you one option, and you tell how you would feel about it. Use the scale “I easily agree with this option”, “this will be a difficult option, but generally acceptable” or “this option is completely unacceptable”.

Below in the table, the data are also given in the regional dimension[3]. Since the survey sample was small, there are few respondents in each region (especially in the East), so the data is indicative for understanding trends.

In all regions, the population is categorically against Russia's demands and only a small part is ready to accept its demands for peace. Also, in all regions, the majority of the population does not support the USA conditional plan.

At the same time, the perception of the joint plan of Europe and Ukraine has a noticeable regional differentiation. Thus, in the West and the South, opinions are divided almost equally. In the Center and the East, the majority is ready to accept the plan. However, we remind you that the samples for each region are small, so the data should be interpreted with caution.

Table 1. Attitude towards conditional peace plans in the regional dimension

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

Over the past few days, the path of diplomatic negotiations has significantly intensified and we see proposals and counter-proposals from various sides. At the time of preparation of the publication, possible direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia on May 15 in Istanbul, in particular between V. Zelensky and V. Putin, are being hotly discussed.

Since May 2022, KIIS has been asking the question “In your opinion, should Ukraine enter into negotiations with Russia in order to try to achieve peace?” in a survey for the USA National Democratic Institute. In May 2022, 59% supported negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, but this indicator then decreased to 29% in January 2023. Then support for negotiations began to grow and reached 57% in May 2024[4]. Now, most likely, the indicator is even higher, that is, in general, the majority of Ukrainians are ready to accept the fact of negotiations with Russia.

Along with this fundamental point is that readiness for negotiations is not the same as readiness for capitulation or unacceptable concessions. As shown in this press release, the absolute majority of Ukrainians categorically reject Russia's demands, that is, Ukrainians want peace, but not peace on any terms. At the same time, Ukrainians remain flexible and are ready to make even difficult compromises, but again - only with respect for the "red lines".

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

There are different options for ending the war. Now I will read you one option, and you tell how you would feel about it. Use the scale “I easily agree with this option”, “This will be a difficult option, but generally acceptable” or “This option is completely unacceptable”.

ONE OF THE FOLLOWING OPTIONS IS RANDOMLY READ TO THE RESPONDENT. WITHIN EACH OPTION, THE POINTS ARE READ IN A DIFFERENT ORDER

А:

• Ukraine receives reliable security guarantees from Europe and the USA
• Russia retains control over the occupied territories, but Ukraine and the world do not officially recognize this
• Ukraine moves towards joining the EU
• After establishing a sustainable peace, the USA gradually eases its sanctions against Russia

Б:

• A group of European states, but without the USA, give Ukraine security guarantees
• Russia retains control over occupied territories
• USA officially recognizes Crimea as part of Russia
• Ukraine moves towards joining the EU
• USA and Europe lift all sanctions against Russia

В:

• Ukraine must significantly reduce its army and limit its armaments
• Ukraine permanently renounces NATO membership
• The cities of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and the entire territory of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts come under Russian control
• Ukraine officially recognizes all occupied territories as part of Russia and renounces them permanently
• Ukraine moves towards joining the EU
• The USA and Europe lift all sanctions against Russia

Scale for responses: