The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

From May 28 to June 3, 2025, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus", to which, on its own initiative, it added a question about the direction of Ukraine's movement - towards the development of democracy or towards the development of authoritarianism. By the method of telephone interviews (computer-assistedtelephoneinterviews, CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting) in all regions of Ukraine (the territory controlled by the Government of Ukraine), 1,092 respondents were surveyed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived in the territory of Ukraine controlled by the Government of Ukraine. The sample did not include residents of territories temporarily not controlled by the Ukrainian authorities (at the same time, some of the respondents are IDPs who moved from the occupied territories), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who left abroad after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) did not exceed 3.9% for indicators close to 50%, 3.4% for indicators close to 25%, 2.4% for indicators close to 10%, 1.7% for indicators close to 5%.

Under conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. Factors that may affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions were previously cited by KIIS.

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of the public moods of the population.

Ukraine has been living in a full-scale war for over 3 years and, in particular, has not had the opportunity to hold elections. According to the latest KIIS data (May 2025), 71% were categorically against elections until the war is completely over[1]. Along with this, we can often hear about the alleged movement of Ukraine towards authoritarianism. Therefore, we asked respondents whether Ukraine is moving more towards the development of democracy and greater democracy or towards the reduction of democracy and the development of authoritarianism.

Opinions of Ukrainians are divided – 50% believe that Ukraine is moving more towards democracy. At the same time, 41% feel that the country is moving more towards authoritarianism.

Graph 1. In your opinion, Ukraine is rather moving in its development...?

Unfortunately, we do not have data for other periods (in particular, until 2022), that is, we cannot say whether more/fewer people now see a movement towards democracy/authoritarianism than before. However, according to our observations and experience, it is unlikely that fewer people previously spoke about a movement towards authoritarianism (in particular, due to the correlation with attitudes towards government – see graph 2 in the press release below). Most likely, the situation was either similar to the current one, or even worse (given the correlation of this view with attitudes towards government).

It is also necessary to take into account what exactly Ukrainians see as manifestations of the development of authoritarianism. If the respondent chose the option that Ukraine is moving towards authoritarianism, we clarified in an open form what exactly this manifests itself in. The corresponding results are presented on graph 3 below in the press release.

The graph below shows how those who do not trust/trust President V. Zelenskyy assess the direction of the country's development. As can be seen, there is a very close connection. Among those who do not trust the President, the absolute majority (82% in the case of those who completely do not trust, and 84% in the case of those who rather do not trust) believe that the country is moving towards authoritarianism.

At the same time, those who trust the President are more optimistic about the development of the situation, but there is differentiation among them. Thus, among those who fully trust the President, 76% speak of a movement towards greater democracy and only 7% see the development of authoritarianism. At the same time, among those who rather trust the President, 50% already see a movement towards democracy, and the share of those who see a movement towards authoritarianism reaches 41%.

Graph 2. Ukraine is rather moving towards greater democracy / the development of authoritarianism in terms of trust in the President

Such results suggest that the feeling of a move towards authoritarianism largely reflects dissatisfaction with the actions of the authorities. That is, a respondent's answer about the "development of authoritarianism" does not always mean that he sees a decrease in democracy. It is often a way to express his criticism and disagreement with the actions of the country's Government.

As we noted earlier, we asked respondents who believe that the country is moving towards authoritarianism an additional open question about why they think so. Relatively often, respondents spoke about restrictions on freedom of speech and pressure on the media (18% among those who believe that the country is moving towards authoritarianism), concentration of power (14%), general dissatisfaction with events and decisions in the country (13%), corruption (12%), activities of the TCR/mobilization (12%), restrictions on rights and freedoms (unspecified) (12%).

Among other things, we note that only 4% of such respondents spoke about the lack of elections. And only 4% about the persecution of the opposition (there was also 1% who specifically spoke about sanctions and persecution of P. Poroshenko - see the Annex with a full list of all answers).

Graph 3. Why exactly do you think that Ukraine is moving towards authoritarianism, and how is this manifested? (open question, top answers)

% among those who believe the country is moving towards authoritarianism

As can be seen, firstly, there is no consensus among the respondents and a very diverse set of “claims” is mentioned (and often quite abstract, without specifics). Secondly, even a cursory analysis shows that a significant part of the answers really concern dissatisfaction with the actions of the authorities, rather than, in fact, the emergence of authoritarianism.

Illustrative is the perception of the concentration of power and the lack of elections. One of these answers was chosen by 18% of respondents who believe that the country is moving towards authoritarianism. However, in terms of the entire population, this will be only 7%. That is, in general, among the population of Ukraine there are 7% who see authoritarian tendencies and associate them with the lack of elections and / or the concentration of power.

Previously, we published results on the population's readiness for territorial losses[2], and also showed that the issue of territorial concessions is dependent on trust in the President[3]. The table below shows how those who believe the country is moving towards greater democracy and those who believe the country is moving towards authoritarianism view territorial concessions.

As can be seen, those who believe that the country is moving towards authoritarianism are more ready to accept territorial losses, even in harsher forms. Thus, among those who see a movement towards authoritarianism, 32% are ready to officially recognize certain occupied territories as part of Russia. And also 32% are ready even to transfer territories that are not currently controlled by Russia under its control (such as the cities of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, etc.). For comparison, among those who see a movement towards democracy, similar indicators are, respectively, 15% and 9%.

Table 1. Readiness for territorial concessions among those who believe that the country is moving towards democracy / authoritarianism

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

There is a broad consensus in Ukraine that Ukraine should be a fully functioning democracy. In KIIS surveys for NDIs after 2022, consistently over 90% support this (and according to 2024 data, the indicator was 93%)[4]. Therefore, it is important to monitor whether citizens experience the development and strengthening of democracy.

Together with this, we see the problem of ambiguous interpretation of how Ukrainians understand “democracy”. Since to a large extent this reflects (dis)approval of the activities of the authorities, then the public voice is unlikely to be a reliable measure of objective trends towards democratization / development of authoritarianism. That is, the public can see a movement towards democracy if it is pleased with the actions of the authorities, but at the same time ignoring objective alarming trends. At the same time, the opposite may be true, when the public critically assesses the authorities and sounds the alarm due to alleged authoritarian tendencies when there are no objective grounds for this. However, the voice of the people still needs to be heard, it is necessary to understand the motivations of their assessments and take them into account in further activities and communication.

We are already seeing the use by individual subjects of the topic of “the development of authoritarianism” as an element of a political campaign. And although 41% who see the development of authoritarianism can inspire media activity, it must be taken into account that not all of these people strive for the best for Ukraine. Thus, at least a third of those who talk about the development of authoritarianism are ready to actually surrender to Russia. That is, not all “fighters against authoritarianism” are patriotic citizens who are aware of the need to continue to repel aggression.

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

In your opinion, Ukraine is rather moving in its development...?

IF CHOSE THE OPTION “TOWARDS THE DECLINE OF DEMOCRACY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AUTHORITARIANISM”:

Why exactly do you think that Ukraine is moving towards authoritarianism, and how does this manifest itself? OPEN QUESTION. RESPONDENTS' ANSWERS WERE RECORDED AND THEN CODED