The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

From July 23 to August 4, 2025, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus", to which, on its own initiative, added a question on how likely it is that Ukrainians think that Ukraine will be a prosperous EU member state in 10 years. By the method of telephone interviews (computer-assistedtelephoneinterviews, CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting) in all regions of Ukraine (the territory controlled by the Government of Ukraine), 1,022 respondents were surveyed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived in the territory of Ukraine controlled by the Government of Ukraine. The sample did not include residents of territories temporarily not controlled by the Ukrainian authorities (at the same time, some of the respondents are IDPs who moved from the occupied territories), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who left abroad after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of a sample of 1022 respondents (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) does not exceed 4.1%. At the same time, an experiment was implemented during the survey: respondents were randomly distributed into three subsamples and a different accompanying text on security issues for Ukraine in the future was read to each subsample. There were 335-347 respondents in each subsample, which gives an error (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) of no more than 7.2%.

Under conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. Factors that may affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions were previously cited by KIIS.

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of the public moods of the population.

A KIIS survey conducted in May-June 2025 showed a significant increase in pessimism regarding the assessment of Ukraine's future[1]. This time we conducted an experiment where respondents were read different scenarios and then asked their opinion on how likely it was that Ukraine would become a prosperous country within the European Union in 10 years[2]. These conditions-scenarios were:

• “Europe cannot provide reliable, stable security guarantees, so Ukraine must rely on its own military and economic power” – this is a scenario where Ukraine does not have reliable external security guarantees and must rely only on its own forces;
• “Although Europe does not send peacekeepers, Ukraine receives stable military and economic support from Europe” – this is a scenario where Europe provides stable support to Ukraine;
• Control group – no additional text-clarification was read.

As can be seen, Overall, 53% believe it is rather or very likely that Ukraine will be a prosperous EU member state in 10 years. 40% consider it rather or very unlikely.

At the same time, as it turned out, additional information about the need to rely on one's own strength or about stable support from Europe had practically no impact on the assessment of the likelihood of a prosperous future in 10 years. Regardless of the conditions-scenario, half (51-55%) consider a successful future likely, and 39-49%, on the contrary, have pessimistic expectations. Perhaps Ukrainians already have a fairly crystallized idea of Europe's role and potential as a reliable ally, so the additional information we read no longer had an impact on the respondent's assessment of the probability.

Graph 1. In your opinion, how likely is it that in 10 years Ukraine will become a prosperous country within the European Union?

Below in the graph, the data are shown in the regional dimension[3]. Since additional conditions-scenario had practically no impact, the data below are presented as a whole for the entire sample.

So, as can be seen, from West to East, the share of those who are optimistic about Ukraine's future in 10 years decreases - from 57% to 44%. Moreover, this is due to the increase in uncertainty - from 5% to 16%. At the same time, the share of pessimists is almost the same in all regions - 38-40%.

Graph 2. Is it likely that in 10 years Ukraine will be a prosperous EU member state in the regional dimension

In the same survey, we asked how Ukrainians perceive Europe's policy regarding Ukraine. For example, 63% continue to consider Europe a reliable ally, while 27%, on the contrary, believe that Europe is tired and is pushing for an unacceptable peace[4]. The graph below shows how these segments of Ukraine's population assess the likelihood of being a prosperous country in 10 years.

So, among Ukrainians, who still feel reliable support from Europe, the level of optimism is higher – among them, 58% believe that Ukraine will be a prosperous country in 10 years, while 35% do not. Among those who are disappointed with Europe's support, only 43% are optimistic, compared to 49% who are pessimistic about the country's future.

Graph 3. Is it likely that in 10 years Ukraine will be a prosperous EU member state in terms of the perception of Europe's policy regarding Ukraine

Among those who trust President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the majority – 64% – are optimistic about the future of Ukraine. The share of those who are pessimistic is 31%.

At the same time, among those who do not trust, the majority (54%) consider it unlikely that Ukraine will be a prosperous EU member state. Optimistic – 39%.

Graph 4. Is it likely that in 10 years Ukraine will be a prosperous EU member state in terms of trust in President V. Zelenskyy

It is also important to consider the data in terms of age. As can be seen in the graph below, relatively more optimistic are young Ukrainians under 30, as well as Ukrainians aged 60 and older.

The relatively higher optimism among young people is a positive trend, although it should still be noted that 38% of Ukrainians under 30 consider Ukraine’s success unlikely in 10 years. Since people under 30 are often less dependent on careers and family obligations, they are more mobile and may more easily decide to emigrate.

Graph 5. Is it likely that in 10 years Ukraine will be a prosperous EU member state in terms of age

As part of this survey, respondents also answered questions about their attitudes towards conditional peace plans from the USA, Europe/Ukraine and Russia[5]. The table below shows how these plans are perceived by those who are optimistic/pessimistic about the future of Ukraine.

Those who are pessimistic about the future of the country are more ready to accept peace plans from the USA and Russia. However, it is important to note that in the case of the Russian plan of de facto surrender, the vast majority of those who are pessimistic about the future still reject it. That is, despite skepticism about what Ukraine will be like in 10 years, the vast majority is categorically against Ukraine's surrender.

Table 1. Attitudes towards conditional peace plans in terms of assessing the likelihood of Ukraine being a prosperous EU member state in 10 years

Also, respondents who considered it unlikely or doubted a happy future in 10 years were asked an additional open-ended question - why exactly they think so. The main answers are shown in the graph below (and the full list of answers can be found in the Annex).

So, most often, respondents explained this by the prevalence of corruption in Ukraine, inefficiency/dissatisfaction with the Ukrainian authorities, the reluctance of the EU itself to accept Ukraine, the fact that reconstruction will take more than 10 years, and in general, the significant destruction of the country due to the war.

Graph 6. Why exactly do you think this is unlikely / Why exactly do you doubt? (open question)

% among those who consider it rather or completely unlikely or doubt that Ukraine will be a prosperous EU member state in 10 years, top answers

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

Currently, in Ukraine, the defining context that influences various public moods is the full-scale war and expectations about when and how it will end. Unfortunately, Ukrainians currently have no clear reason to be confident that the war will not last long and will end on terms acceptable to Ukraine, which reinforces the feeling of uncertainty and anxiety.

At the same time, it is worth noting that there are two important factors that influence the perception of Ukraine's future - trust in the Ukrainian authorities and the perception of Europe's commitment to Ukraine's success. When Ukrainians feel that the decisions made by the authorities are aimed at reforming and developing the country, at achieving justice - Ukrainians are more optimistic about what the country will be like in 10 years. Therefore, the harm from unsuccessful decisions (in particular, those we saw in July, but which, fortunately, were overturned) is not limited to the level of trust in the authorities and the reduction of their prospects for re-election in the next elections. The harm has a broader and more destructive impact, as it sows deep despair in society and leads many to believe that nothing can be changed in Ukraine and that there are no prospects.

The perception of European policy is also important. When Ukrainians see the firm commitment of European allies to Ukraine, it gives them confidence that Ukraine is indeed expected in the European family and will be provided with all the necessary support. However, it is important that this support has a practical dimension and that Ukrainians, in addition to strong words, can use European (or European-funded) weapons in their hands to repel the Russian enemy. The practical dimension also concerns specific steps that would lead Ukraine to full membership in the EU in the not-so-long term.

Ukrainians continue to demonstrate amazing resilience and the will to continue the fight. And they will continue to resist in any case, because the war remains an existential challenge. Ukrainians deserve hope - hope that in the future, after all the sacrifices and destruction, a dreamy flourishing country awaits us at last. Ukrainian society must do its "homework", but our friends in Europe must also have the courage and determination in Ukraine's European integration.

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

Please imagine that the war is over. … [SPLIT-SAMPLE – OPTION А, Б or В].

А – [WITHOUT ADDITIONAL INFORMATION]

Б – Europe cannot provide reliable, stable security guarantees, so Ukraine must rely on its own military and economic power.

В – Although Europe does not send peacekeepers, Ukraine receives stable military and economic support from Europe.

In your opinion, how likely is it that in 10 years Ukraine will become a prosperous country within the European Union?

[IF 3-4] Why exactly do you think this is unlikely? [IF 5] Why exactly do you doubt?

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FULL LIST OF RESPONSES TO THE OPEN QUESTION AND % AMONG THOSE WHO RESPONDED TO THE QUESTION: