The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

During September 19-28, 2025, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus", to which, at the request of the public organization Center for Strategic Communications "Forum", questions were added regarding the perception of how ready Ukraine was for the invasion. By the method of telephone interviews (computer-assistedtelephoneinterviews, CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting) in all regions of Ukraine (the territory controlled by the Government of Ukraine), 1,029 respondents were surveyed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived in the territory of Ukraine controlled by the Government of Ukraine. The sample did not include residents of territories temporarily not controlled by the Ukrainian authorities (at the same time, some of the respondents are IDPs who moved from the occupied territories), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who left abroad after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) did not exceed 4.1% for indicators close to 50%, 3.5% for indicators close to 25%, 2.5% for indicators close to 10%, 1.8% for indicators close to 5%.

Under conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. Factors that may affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions were previously cited by KIIS.

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of the public moods of the population.

Graph 1 below shows the results of a survey on whether Ukrainians believe that Ukraine has done enough to prepare for a full-scale invasion in February 2022. Before this, we last asked this question in February 2025 and can track the dynamics of moods over the past six months.

As can be seen, compared to the results of the last survey, citizens' assessments have hardly changed. So, the vast majority of Ukrainians continue to believe that Ukraine did not do enough to prepare for the invasion – 81% (six months ago it was the same). Of these, 37% believe that Ukraine has rather made insufficient efforts, although it has done something. And the remaining 44% believe that Ukraine's efforts in preparation were completely insufficient.

The share of respondents who believe that Ukraine has done rather or completely enough to prepare is 16%. Of these, 14% believe that Ukraine has rather done enough, although there were some miscalculations. And those who believe that Ukraine has done everything completely enough are 2%.

Graph 1. Western intelligence agencies have been publicly warning since early November 2021 that Russia was preparing an attack. About 4 months passed from the first warnings to the start of the invasion in February 2022. In your opinion, did Ukraine do enough or not enough to prepare for the attack during this time?

In all regions of Ukraine[1] the majority of the population believes that Ukraine's efforts were insufficient.

Graph2. Assessment of the adequacy of preparation for an attack in the regional dimension

Respondents who said that Ukraine had done rather or not enough to prepare were asked an additional question about possible reasons in their opinion.

The survey results show that there is no clear consensus and vision among the population about the reasons for the lack of preparation for the invasion. Thus, relatively most respondents said that the political authorities failed to make the necessary efforts (46% among those who believe that Ukraine was not ready; in February 2025 it was 41%).

In addition, quite a few respondents said that the population itself did not believe and was not prepared (35%, in February 2025 – 32%), that Russia had too many resources (21%, previously – 15%), about the influence of pro-Russian forces and agents (17%, previously – 21%), that the military command was unable to make due efforts (15%, previously – 13%), about insufficient support from the West (15%, previously – 16%), that it is objectively impossible to prepare and take everything into account during this period (14%, previously – 10%).

Graph 3. For what reasons, in your opinion, was Ukraine initially unprepared for the invasion? Choose up to 2 answers.

% among respondents who consider preparation rather or completely insufficient

In all regions, respondents most often spoke about efforts by political authorities (with more people talking about this from East to West) and about the fact that the population itself did not believe.

Table 1. Reasons for insufficient readiness for invasion in the regional dimension

% among respondents who consider preparation rather or completely insufficient

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

Critical reflection on past experience is very important to understand which steps were right and which were wrong (and also who is responsible and should be fairly punished). Learning from one’s own mistakes comes at a very high price for Ukraine, but the conclusions drawn should become an important component of the strategy for further actions.

At the same time, it should be borne in mind that there can be no simple answers to such complex issues as preparing for a full-scale war. If historians are still discussing strategy and tactics, successful and false steps, for example, during the First World War, which has been going on for over 100 years and is well documented, then one should not expect simple explanations about our war. And at the same time, public opinion cannot be used to assess the objective level of (un)readiness for war. People do not have enough information for this, and their answers rather show the degree of trust in the authorities and the result of the information war and political struggle in the information space.

Discussions about preparing for an invasion should be constructive and calm. And it is important to focus on the future, not drown in the past. Currently, as a recent KIIS survey showed, 76% of Ukrainians believe in the possibility of Victory, and 62% are ready to endure as long as necessary[2]. Ukrainians retain the will to fight. Therefore, analyzing the past should help pave the way for future successes, and not be another attempt to settle political scores.

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

Western intelligence agencies have been publicly warning since early November 2021 that Russia was preparing an attack. About 4 months passed from the first warnings to the start of the invasion in February 2022. In your opinion, did Ukraine do enough or not enough to prepare for the attack during this time?

 [IF IN THE PREVIOUS 3 OR 4] For what reasons, in your opinion, was Ukraine initially unprepared for the invasion? Choose up to 2 answers. DIFFERENT ORDER