The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi,executive director of KIIS

From November 26 to December 13, 2025, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus", to which, at the request of the public organization Center for Strategic Communications "Forum", a question was added regarding the perception of how ready Ukraine was for the invasion. By the method oftelephone interviews (computer-assistedtelephoneinterviews, CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting) in all regions of Ukraine (the territory controlled by the Government of Ukraine), 1,000 respondents were surveyed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived in the territory of Ukraine controlled by the Government of Ukraine. The sample did not include residents of territories temporarily not controlled by the Ukrainian authorities (at the same time, some of the respondents are IDPs who moved from the occupied territories), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who left abroad after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) did not exceed 4.1% for indicators close to 50%, 3.5% for indicators close to 25%, 2.5% for indicators close to 10%, 1.8% for indicators close to 5%.

Under conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. Factors that may affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions were previously cited by KIIS.

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of the public moods of the population.

Graph 1 below shows the results of a survey on whether Ukrainians believe that Ukraine has done enough to prepare for a full-scale invasion in February 2022. We have asked this question several times before and can track the dynamics of moods over last time.

As can be seen, compared to the results of the last survey in September 2025, citizens' assessments have almost not changed. So, the vast majority of Ukrainians continue to believe that Ukraine did not do enough to prepare for the invasion – 78% (in September it was 81%, formally the difference is within the margin of error). Of these, 28% believe that Ukraine has rather made insufficient efforts, although it has done something. And the remaining 50% believe that Ukraine's efforts in preparation were completely insufficient (the share of those who think so has increased from 44% in September to 50% in December).

The share of respondents who believe that Ukraine has done more or less enough to prepare is 15% (in September it was almost the same – 16%). Of these, 10% believe that Ukraine has done more or less enough, although there were some miscalculations. And 5% believe that Ukraine has done everything completely enough.

Graph 1. Western intelligence agencies have been publicly warning since early November 2021 that Russia was preparing an attack. About 4 months passed from the first warnings to the start of the invasion in February 2022. In your opinion, did Ukraine do enough or not enough to prepare for the attack during this time?

In all regions of Ukraine[1] the majority of the population believes that Ukraine's efforts were insufficient.

Graph2. Assessment of the adequacy of preparation for an attack in the regional dimension

Respondents who said that Ukraine had done rather or not enough to prepare were asked an additional question about possible reasons in their opinion.

The survey results show that there is no clear consensus and vision among the population of the reasons for the lack of preparation for the invasion. Thus, relatively most respondents said that the political authorities failed to make the necessary efforts (49% among those who believe that Ukraine was not ready; in September 2025 it was 46%, in February – 41%, that is, there is a tendency to increase during the year).

In addition, quite a few respondents said that the population itself did not believe and was not prepared (29%, in September – 35%), about the influence of pro-Russian forces and agents (18%, previously – 17%), that the military command was unable to make due efforts (15%, previously – the same number), that Russia had too many resources (13%, previously – 21%), about insufficient support from the West (11%, previously – 15%), that it is objectively impossible to prepare and take everything into account during this period (10%, previously – 14%).

Graph 3. For what reasons, in your opinion, was Ukraine initially unprepared for the invasion? Choose up to 2 answers.

% among respondents who consider preparation to be rather or completely insufficient

In all regions, respondents most often spoke about efforts by political authorities (slightly more in the West and Center, slightly less in the South and East) and that the population itself did not believe.

Table 1. Reasons for insufficient readiness for invasion in the regional dimension

% among respondents who consider preparation to be rather or completely insufficient

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

There is a strong demand among Ukrainians for justice in the aftermath of the great war, which includes, in particular, punishment of those responsible for the possible lack of preparation for the invasion. At the same time, in addition to the punishment function, it is important to identify miscalculations and take them into account for the future. Especially if at some point a “peace agreement” is indeed reached with such a configuration that will mean that Russia will continue to pose a threat to Ukraine. In a KIIS survey in September 2025, only 10% of Ukrainians believed that if a peace plan from Europe and Ukraine was implemented (which was generally perceived then and now as difficult, but acceptable, and which includes security guarantees), Russia would not attack Ukraine again (instead, 56% rather or completely believed that Russia would try to attack again)[2]. Тому безумовно важливим є врахування досвіду підготовки до подій лютого 2022 року.

It should be borne in mind that ordinary citizens are not experts and do not have all the information about the progress of preparations for 2022, that is, the public cannot act as the final reliable judge. This means that there is a need for professional discussion that would be calm and constructive. Critical reflection on past experience should not become a hostage to political games and be used by political opponents to settle scores.

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

Western intelligence agencies have been publicly warning since early November 2021 that Russia was preparing an attack. About 4 months passed from the first warnings to the start of the invasion in February 2022. In your opinion, did Ukraine do enough or not enough to prepare for the attack during this time?

 [IF IN THE PREVIOUS 3 OR 4] For what reasons, in your opinion, was Ukraine initially unprepared for the invasion? Choose up to 2 answers. DIFFERENT ORDER