The press release was prepared by Anton Grushetskyi,executive director of KIIS

During July 16-31, 2026, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion survey. The survey was conducted using a mixed-mode method: half of the respondents were interviewed using computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI), and half were interviewed using face-to-face interviews using tablets.

Telephone interviews were conducted using a database of randomly generated mobile numbers. Interviewers then called the mobile numbers and invited citizens to participate in the survey (if they were living in the territory controlled by Ukraine at the time of the interview and were 18 years old). No additional quotas were applied, and the final array was statistically weighted.

Personal interviews were conducted on the basis of a stratified three-stage random sample with quota selection at the last stage. The sample was developed only for the territories controlled by the Government of Ukraine. Initially, the sample was stratified by oblast and urban/rural area (the division into urban/rural area was carried out on the basis of the averaged share of citizens who reported living in a village based on the results of telephone surveys by KIIS in 2026 (based on a random sample). Then, at the first stage, polling stations were randomly selected within the stratum (a total of 90 polling stations in 54 different settlements were selected). In the second stage, the starting address was selected within the station, and in the third stage, citizens were selected according to the gender-age task. The final array was also weighted to be fully equivalent in these dimensions to the array of telephone interviews.

In both surveys, the planned sample size was 900 respondents, of which 300 were from Kyiv city. For the analysis, the “weight” of Kyiv city was adjusted to the statistics during the statistical weighting of each of the arrays.

In total, 1,808 interviews were conducted within the framework of the research, of which 905 were telephone interviews (including 305 with those currently living in Kyiv city), 903 were personal interviews (including 302 with those currently living in Kyiv city).

Formally, for normal circumstances, the statistical error of the sample (with a probability of 0.95 and a design effect of 1.3 and taking into account the sample structure with additional interviews in Kyiv city) does not exceed 3.5% for a sample of 1,808 respondents (full sample) and 4.9% for a sample of about 900 respondents (separate telephone interviews and individual personal interviews).

Under conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. Factors that may affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions were previously cited by KIIS.

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of the public moods of the population.

In the appendix you can find the results separately for telephone interviews and for personal interviews.

We also note that the calculations in the press release are rounded to integer values. In some cases, the sum of % may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding (the same applies to the calculation of the balance of trust-distrust).

Who will win the war

 The absolute majority of Ukrainians – 82% – believe that Ukraine will ultimately win the war, but of those who are completely convinced of this – 59% (the remaining 23% rather think that Ukraine will win.) Only 3% think that Russia will win, and another 16% could not decide on their opinion.

In February 2024, according to the results of a KIIS survey, 89% believed in victory, and of those, 60% believed completely [1].  

Graph 1. How do you feel, will Ukraine or Russia ultimately win the war?

In whose favour is the situation on the battlefield

 Only 7% believe that the situation on the battlefield is developing in Russia’s favour. Instead, 39% believe that Ukraine has the advantage.

At the same time, more than half of Ukrainians either believe that neither side has an advantage (32%) or could not decide on their answer (22%).

In February 2024, when we asked a similar question, 15% believed that the situation was developing in favour of Russia, 24% in favour of Ukraine. Another 47% said that neither side had an advantage (and 14% were undecided) [2].

Graph 2. And if to evaluate the current situation on the battlefield in these weeks, then in your opinion it is developing in favor of …

Expectations when might the war end

 Only 22% of Ukrainians expect the war to end at least by the end of 2026. Another 13% say about the first half of 2027, and 39% believe the war will end in the second half of 2027 or later. In addition, a significant share (26%) were unable to answer the question (which adds to the fact that only a minority have expectations of the war ending in the near future).

Graph 3. In your opinion, when might the war end?