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Dynamics of Ukraine’s attitude toward Russia and Russian population’s attitude toward Ukraine
Following the schedule of joint project of the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) and the Levada Center (Russia), KIIS has conducted a nationwide opinion poll regarding attitude of Ukrainians towards Russia and attitude of Russia towards Ukrainian population, which was held during the period of May 21–30, 2013. 2030 respondents were interviewed; the investigation covered all regions of Ukraine, including Kiev and Crimea Region; the sample was random and is deemed to be representative for population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.
Statistical sample deviation (with probability of 0.95 and design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 3.3% for index close to 50%, 2,8% — for index close to 25%, 2,0% — for index close to 10%, 1,4% — for index close to 5%.
Investigation, held by the Levada-Center, is representative for adult population and was conducted during the period of May 23–27, 2013. Sample counts 1601 respondents aged 18 years and covers 127 settlements.
Dynamics of Ukrainians’ answers to the following question: "What is your general attitude to Russia?"; and dynamics of Russians’ answers to the following question: "What is your general attitude to Ukraine?"
- As before, the Ukrainian attitude toward Russia is better than attitude of Russians toward Ukraine. In comparison with February, 2013, the prevalence of good attitude toward Russia decreased slightly — from 85% to 81%. The share of Ukrainians with negative attitude toward Russia is 10%; 9% of respondents could not answer the question.
- In terms of regional distribution the situation remains the same as before. Positively oriented population toward Russia lives in the Eastern (93%) and Southern regions (85%) of Ukraine; the smallest share of people, who positively perceive Russia, inhabits Western region (66%). Central Region population has positive attitude toward Russia in 80% of respondents. In comparison with February, the number of positively oriented toward Russia has decreased in the Southern region (was 92%) and Central (was 86%) area.
- Attitude toward Ukraine in Russia has not been statistically changed during this period; and the number of positive minded is 72%, negative — 18%; could not answer the question 9% of respondents.
However, as the deputy director of the Levada Center Mr. Alexei Grazhdankin noted, "generally, during the last year, Russians’ attitude toward Ukraine has further improved (although the last six months does not show any clear dynamics of index). However, as before, while positive attitude toward the United States and the European Union are more characteristic of young people with high levels of wealth and education, attitude toward Ukraine, as well as toward Belarus, is more homogeneous for all social groups; and desire to separate from Ukraine, on the contrary, has increased (again, as before, supporters of integration are usually people of older age groups, with lower education, villagers; and opponents of this idea are people with a low standard of living and residents of Moscow). The only hypothesis I propose is decline of interest in the events taking place in Ukraine."
Dynamics answers of Russians and Ukrainians to the following question: "What relations would you like to see between Ukraine and Russia?"
- The majority of respondents both from Russia and Ukraine would like to see both countries independent but friendly states with open borders without visas and customs (in Ukraine — 72%, in Russia — 58%). In Ukraine, the number of the supporters of the idea above has decreased from February by 4%, in Russia – by 6%.
- The quantity of those who desire to have more isolated relations between Ukraine and Russia, has slightly increased in Russia and decreased in Ukraine: these people who prefer to have closed borders, visas and customs between the countries, constitute 19% of respondents and in Ukraine — 11% of respondents (in February, the number was 13% for both countries).
- Creation of the united state is desired by 15% of Russians and 14% of Ukrainians.
In the opinion of Alexei Grazhdankin, "attitude of Russia toward Ukraine, with all its positivity, is still worse than the attitude of Ukraine toward Russia, and the desire of Russia to separate from Ukraine is more pronounced than the desire of Ukraine to separate from Russia; thus, it seems no fundamental changes have happened in the recent years."
Figure 1. Dynamics of relationships between Ukraine and Russia
Ukraine’s Attitude Toward Russia, % |
Russia’s Attitude Toward Ukraine, % |
Date |
Very Good |
Very Bad |
Difficult to Say |
TOTAL |
Date |
Very Good |
Very Bad |
Difficult to Say |
TOTAL |
Apr,08 |
88 |
7 |
5 |
100 |
Mar,08 |
55 |
33 |
12 |
100 |
Sep,08 |
88 |
9 |
3 |
100 |
Sep,08 |
38 |
53 |
10 |
100 |
Feb,09 |
91 |
5 |
4 |
100 |
Jan,09 |
29 |
62 |
10 |
100 |
May,09 |
93 |
4 |
3 |
100 |
May,09 |
33 |
56 |
11 |
100 |
Oct,09 |
92 |
6 |
3 |
100 |
Sep,09 |
46 |
44 |
10 |
100 |
Mar,10 |
90 |
6 |
4 |
100 |
Mar,10 |
59 |
29 |
12 |
100 |
Jun,10 |
92 |
6 |
3 |
100 |
Jul,10 |
70 |
22 |
9 |
100 |
Oct,10 |
93 |
4 |
3 |
100 |
Oct,10 |
67 |
21 |
12 |
100 |
Nov,11 |
80 |
13 |
7 |
100 |
Sep,11 |
68 |
23 |
9 |
100 |
Feb,12 |
85 |
9 |
6 |
100 |
Jan,12 |
64 |
25 |
12 |
100 |
Sep,12 |
83 |
11 |
6 |
100 |
Sep,12 |
74 |
17 |
10 |
100 |
Feb,13 |
85 |
8 |
7 |
100 |
Feb,13 |
69 |
21 |
9 |
100 |
May,13 |
81 |
10 |
9 |
100 |
May,13 |
72 |
18 |
9 |
100 |
Attitude toward Russia in Ukraine (by region):
|
Macroregions |
|
West |
Central Area |
South |
East |
Very Good |
9.6 |
13.3 |
38.9 |
51.4 |
Almost Good |
55.9 |
66.5 |
45.9 |
41.2 |
Almost Bad |
16.0 |
7.7 |
6.6 |
3.0 |
Very Bad |
4.5 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
Difficult to Say |
14.0 |
11.0 |
7.7 |
3.0 |
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
"What would you like to see Ukraine's relations with Russia?"
|
UKRAINE |
Date |
Relation should be the same we have with other countries with closed borders, visas and customs |
Ukraine and Russia should be independent, but friendly states with open borders without visas and customs |
Ukraine and Russia should unite |
Difficult to Say |
TOTAL |
Apr,2008 |
10 |
67 |
20 |
3 |
100 |
Sep,2008 |
17 |
66 |
16 |
2 |
100 |
Feb,2009 |
8 |
68 |
23 |
1 |
100 |
May,2009 |
10 |
65 |
23 |
2 |
100 |
Oct,2009 |
11 |
67 |
19 |
3 |
100 |
Mar,2010 |
11 |
67 |
19 |
3 |
100 |
Jun,2010 |
12 |
70 |
16 |
2 |
100 |
Oct,2010 |
10 |
67 |
20 |
2 |
100 |
Nov,2011 |
13 |
67 |
16 |
1 |
100 |
Feb,2012 |
13 |
69 |
16 |
2 |
100 |
Sep,2012 |
11 |
72 |
14 |
3 |
100 |
Feb,2013 |
13 |
68 |
16 |
3 |
100 |
May,2013 |
11 |
69 |
14 |
5 |
100 |
|
RUSSIA |
|
Relation should be the same we have with other countries with closed borders, visas and customs |
Ukraine and Russia should be independent, but friendly states with open borders without visas and customs |
Ukraine and Russia should unite |
Difficult to Say |
TOTAL |
Mar,2008 |
19 |
56 |
19 |
6 |
100 |
Sep,2008 |
24 |
52 |
13 |
11 |
100 |
Jan,2009 |
29 |
51 |
12 |
8 |
100 |
May,2009 |
25 |
55 |
14 |
6 |
100 |
Sep,2009 |
25 |
55 |
13 |
7 |
100 |
Mar,2010 |
25 |
55 |
14 |
6 |
100 |
Jul,2010 |
17 |
64 |
13 |
6 |
100 |
Oct,2010 |
16 |
60 |
18 |
6 |
100 |
Sep,2011 |
16 |
63 |
14 |
6 |
100 |
Jan,2012 |
16 |
61 |
16 |
8 |
100 |
Sep,2012 |
14 |
60 |
20 |
6 |
100 |
Feb,2013 |
13 |
64 |
18 |
6 |
100 |
May,2013 |
19 |
58 |
15 |
8 |
100 |
27.6.2013
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