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Dynamics of Ukraine’s attitude toward Russia and Russian population’s attitude toward Ukraine

Following the schedule of joint project of the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) and the Levada Center (Russia), KIIS has conducted a nationwide opinion poll regarding attitude of Ukrainians towards Russia and attitude of Russia towards Ukrainian population, which was held during the period of May 21–30, 2013. 2030 respondents were interviewed; the investigation covered all regions of Ukraine, including Kiev and Crimea Region; the sample was random and is deemed to be representative for population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

Statistical sample deviation (with probability of 0.95 and design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed:
3.3% for index close to 50%,
2,8% — for index close to 25%,
2,0% — for index close to 10%,
1,4% — for index close to 5%.

Investigation, held by the Levada-Center, is representative for adult population and was conducted during the period of May 23–27, 2013. Sample counts 1601 respondents aged 18 years and covers 127 settlements.


Dynamics of Ukrainians’ answers to the following question: "What is your general attitude to Russia?"; and dynamics of Russians’ answers to the following question: "What is your general attitude to Ukraine?"

  • As before, the Ukrainian attitude toward Russia is better than attitude of Russians toward Ukraine. In comparison with February, 2013, the prevalence of good attitude toward Russia decreased slightly — from 85% to 81%. The share of Ukrainians with negative attitude toward Russia is 10%; 9% of respondents could not answer the question.
  • In terms of regional distribution the situation remains the same as before. Positively oriented population toward Russia lives in the Eastern (93%) and Southern regions (85%) of Ukraine; the smallest share of people, who positively perceive Russia, inhabits Western region (66%). Central Region population has positive attitude toward Russia in 80% of respondents. In comparison with February, the number of positively oriented toward Russia has decreased in the Southern region (was 92%) and Central (was 86%) area.
  • Attitude toward Ukraine in Russia has not been statistically changed during this period; and the number of positive minded is 72%, negative — 18%; could not answer the question 9% of respondents.

 

However, as the deputy director of the Levada Center Mr. Alexei Grazhdankin noted, "generally, during the last year, Russians’ attitude toward Ukraine has further improved (although the last six months does not show any clear dynamics of index). However, as before, while positive attitude toward the United States and the European Union are more characteristic of young people with high levels of wealth and education, attitude toward Ukraine, as well as toward Belarus, is more homogeneous for all social groups; and desire to separate from Ukraine, on the contrary, has increased (again, as before, supporters of integration are usually people of older age groups, with lower education, villagers; and opponents of this idea are people with a low standard of living and residents of Moscow). The only hypothesis I propose is decline of interest in the events taking place in Ukraine."


Dynamics answers of Russians and Ukrainians to the following question: "What relations would you like to see between Ukraine and Russia?"

  • The majority of respondents both from Russia and Ukraine would like to see both countries independent but friendly states with open borders without visas and customs (in Ukraine — 72%, in Russia — 58%). In Ukraine, the number of the supporters of the idea above has decreased from February by 4%, in Russia – by 6%.
  • The quantity of those who desire to have more isolated relations between Ukraine and Russia, has slightly increased in Russia and decreased in Ukraine: these people who prefer to have closed borders, visas and customs between the countries, constitute 19% of respondents and in Ukraine — 11% of respondents (in February, the number was 13% for both countries).
  • Creation of the united state is desired by 15% of Russians and 14% of Ukrainians.

In the opinion of Alexei Grazhdankin, "attitude of Russia toward Ukraine, with all its positivity, is still worse than the attitude of Ukraine toward Russia, and the desire of Russia to separate from Ukraine is more pronounced than the desire of Ukraine to separate from Russia; thus, it seems no fundamental changes have happened in the recent years."

 

Figure 1. Dynamics of relationships between Ukraine and Russia

 

Ukraine’s Attitude Toward Russia, % Russia’s Attitude Toward Ukraine, %
Date Very Good Very Bad Difficult to Say TOTAL Date Very Good Very Bad Difficult to Say TOTAL
Apr,08 88 7 5 100 Mar,08 55 33 12 100
Sep,08 88 9 3 100 Sep,08 38 53 10 100
Feb,09 91 5 4 100 Jan,09 29 62 10 100
May,09 93 4 3 100 May,09 33 56 11 100
Oct,09 92 6 3 100 Sep,09 46 44 10 100
Mar,10 90 6 4 100 Mar,10 59 29 12 100
Jun,10 92 6 3 100 Jul,10 70 22 9 100
Oct,10 93 4 3 100 Oct,10 67 21 12 100
Nov,11 80 13 7 100 Sep,11 68 23 9 100
Feb,12 85 9 6 100 Jan,12 64 25 12 100
Sep,12 83 11 6 100 Sep,12 74 17 10 100
Feb,13 85 8 7 100 Feb,13 69 21 9 100
May,13 81 10 9 100 May,13 72 18 9 100

 

Attitude toward Russia in Ukraine (by region):

  Macroregions
  West Central Area South East
Very Good 9.6 13.3 38.9 51.4
Almost Good 55.9 66.5 45.9 41.2
Almost Bad 16.0 7.7 6.6 3.0
Very Bad 4.5 1.5 0.9 1.4
Difficult to Say 14.0 11.0 7.7 3.0
TOTAL 100 100 100 100

 

"What would you like to see Ukraine's relations with Russia?"

  UKRAINE
Date Relation should be the same we have with other countries with closed borders, visas and customs Ukraine and Russia should be independent, but friendly states with open borders without visas and customs Ukraine and Russia should unite Difficult to Say TOTAL
Apr,2008 10 67 20 3 100
Sep,2008 17 66 16 2 100
Feb,2009 8 68 23 1 100
May,2009 10 65 23 2 100
Oct,2009 11 67 19 3 100
Mar,2010 11 67 19 3 100
Jun,2010 12 70 16 2 100
Oct,2010 10 67 20 2 100
Nov,2011 13 67 16 1 100
Feb,2012 13 69 16 2 100
Sep,2012 11 72 14 3 100
Feb,2013 13 68 16 3 100
May,2013 11 69 14 5 100
  RUSSIA
  Relation should be the same we have with other countries with closed borders, visas and customs Ukraine and Russia should be independent, but friendly states with open borders without visas and customs Ukraine and Russia should unite Difficult to Say TOTAL
Mar,2008  19 56  19  100
Sep,2008  24 52  13  11  100
Jan,2009  29 51  12  100
May,2009  25 55  14  100
Sep,2009  25 55  13  100
Mar,2010  25 55  14  100
Jul,2010  17 64  13  100
Oct,2010  16 60  18  100
Sep,2011 16 63 14 6 100
Jan,2012 16 61 16 8 100
Sep,2012 14 60 20 6 100
Feb,2013 13 64 18 6 100
May,2013 19 58 15 8 100

27.6.2013
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