Dynamics of the Ukrainians attitudes towards sociological opinion polls, November 2013
On November 9 – 20, 2013 Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own public opinion survey. Data was collected from 2011 respondents, living in all regions of Ukraine (including Kyiv) and Crimea, through the method of personal interview. Sample was random and representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.
Statistical sample error (with probability of 0.95 and design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed:
3.3% — for indicators close to 50%;
2,8% — for indicators close to 25%;
2,0% — for indicators close to 10%;
1,4% — for indicators close to 5%.
Questions about the attitude of the population of Ukraine to the results of opinion polls was asked in 2002, 2004, 2009 and 2012. In the survey in November 2013, respondents also expressed their views about the opinion polls.
The survey showed that:
- Level of confidence in the results of opinion polls held by organizations, which conduct surveys and publish their results for a long time already, among the population of Ukraine for 11 years first significantly increased from 36% in 2002 to 47% in 2004, and then remained stable at approximately the same level of fluctuations in within sampling error (a slight increase to 51% was only in 2012, probably, because the study was conducted immediately after the parliamentary election in which the data of all exit polls and of elections were close to each other). Now (November 2013) the credibility of opinion polls is about 46%.
- This year trust level is not statistically different from the trust levels in 2004 and 2009, but it has gone down a little comparing to 2012: from 51% to 46% (difference is statistically significant). Amount of those, who doubt and do not trust sociological opinion polls has increased instead: from 34% to 37% and from 13% to 15% respectively (difference is insignificant).
-
BY GENDER: women (48%) trust sociological surveys more than men (43%); 18% of men and 13% of women do not trust the results of polls.
-
BY AGE: the highest trust rate was found among the youngest age group (50%), and the oldest age group – 60-69 years (49%). The lowest trust rate is amongst the age group of 50-59 (41%).
-
BY REGIONS: all four regions have closely the same trust rate – 45-47% (there are no significant differences between the regions), but the amount of those, who does not trust, is bigger in Eastern region – 21% (comparing to 12-14% in other regions).
-
The balance of trust and mistrust to sociological centers (the percentage of those, who trust, minus the percentage of those, who do not) is +31% (46% minus 15%).
Comment of Daryna Pirohova, project coordinator in KIIS
Despite the fact, that the level of confidence in sociological polls decreased a little during the year, the Ukrainians still trust sociologists more, than mistrust. It means that the balance of trust and mistrust is positive. Let`s remind the balances of trust and mistrust in some institutions, calculated by KIIS in 2012.
|
Trust |
Do not trust |
Balance of trust-mistrust |
Church |
61.7 |
17.0 |
44.7 |
Media |
40.5 |
28.3 |
12.2 |
Non-governmental organizations |
27.1 |
29.4 |
-2.4 |
Armed Forces of Ukraine |
34.3 |
36.6 |
-2.4 |
Opposition |
24.0 |
52.6 |
-28.6 |
President of Ukraine |
21.9 |
65.9 |
-44.0 |
Police |
15.5 |
62.9 |
-47.4 |
Government of Ukraine |
16.1 |
68.8 |
-52.7 |
Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine |
12.0 |
73.4 |
-61.4 |
In 2013, we did not measure the level of trust in social institutions, but the data of our colleagues suggest that the situation has not changed. Thus, we can conclude that sociologists are trusted less than the church, but more than the media and all other social institutions.
Addition
By years:
Doyoutrusttheresultsofsociologicalpolls, heldbyorganizationswhichconductsurveysandpublishresultsforalongtimealready? % ofrespondents |
|
2002 |
2004 |
2009 |
2012 |
2013 |
Yes |
36 |
47 |
45 |
51 |
46 |
Difficult to say |
32 |
37 |
35 |
34 |
37 |
No |
29 |
13 |
14 |
13 |
15 |
Refusal from responding |
3 |
3 |
6 |
2 |
2 |
By gender:
Doyoutrusttheresultsofsociologicalpolls, heldbyorganizationswhichconductsurveysandpublishresultsforalongtimealready? % ofrespondents |
|
Men |
Women |
|
Yes |
43 |
48 |
|
Difficult to say |
37 |
37 |
|
No |
18 |
13 |
|
Refusal from responding |
2 |
2 |
|
By age:
Doyoutrusttheresultsofsociologicalpolls, heldbyorganizationswhichconductsurveysandpublishresultsforalongtimealready? % ofrespondents |
|
18-29 |
30-39 |
40-49 |
50-59 |
60-69 |
70 + |
Yes |
50 |
44 |
45 |
41 |
49 |
44 |
Difficult to say |
35 |
35 |
39 |
39 |
36 |
40 |
No |
14 |
17 |
14 |
17 |
14 |
16 |
Refusal from responding |
1 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
By regions:
Doyoutrusttheresultsofsociologicalpolls, heldbyorganizationswhichconductsurveysandpublishresultsforalongtimealready? % ofrespondents |
|
Western |
Central |
Southern |
Eastern |
Yes |
45 |
45 |
47 |
46 |
Difficult to say |
37 |
39 |
40 |
31 |
No |
14 |
14 |
12 |
21 |
Refusal from responding |
3 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
23.12.2013