Press releases and reports
How relations between Ukraine and Russia should look like? Public opinion polls’ results
Public opinion poll was conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation together with Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in the period between February, 8-18 2014. 2032 respondents were interviewed in all the districts of Ukraine (including Kyiv) and in Crimea according to the random sample, which was representative for all the population of Ukraine older than 18 years. Statistical error doesn’t exceed 2,2% (without design -effect). Question included by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation were financed in the framework of the project “Public sociological consortium” by the European union, MATRA programme of the Kingdom of Netherlands, International Renaissance Foundation, and also in the framework of the project “Stimulating dialog on transition processes” by the National Endowment for Democracy (USA).
Data from public opinion poll, conducted by Russian research organization Levada Centre is provided for comparison. Levada Centre conducted representative for Russia public opinion poll on February, 21-25 2014 and interviewed 1603 respo
ndents older than 18 years in 130 settlements in 45 districts of the country. Statistical error doesn’t exceed 3,4%.
Ukrainians don’t want visas and borders with Russia, but at the same time don’t want to be united with Russia in a single state
- In Ukraine, as well as in Russia majority of respondents wants both countries to be independent, but friendly - with open borders, without visas and customs houses (in Ukraine – 68%, in Russia – 59%). In Ukraine with numbers have decreased since November, 2013 by 5%, in Russia – increased by 4%.
- Integration with Russia into a single state is supported by 12% of respondents in Ukraine, and during recent years this number has decreased from 20% to 9%, but after Maidan – increased by 3%. The main part of supporters of this idea of unification with Russia is in the East (26%) and South (19%), while the smallest part is in the Center (5%) and West (1%) of Ukraine. By regions majority of integration with Russia in one state is in Crimea (41%), Donetsk district (33%), Lugansk district (24%), Odessa district (24%), Zaporizhzhya (17%) and Kharkiv (15%) districts, but even there support to the current status of relations with Russia - as two independent and friendly states – prevails.
- Among Russians desire to have Ukraine and Russia as two independent and friendly states (with open borders, without visas and customs houses) prevails as well as among Ukrainians (68% and 63% respectively). Integration into one state is supported by 9% of Ukrainians and 32% of Russians. There is direct dependence between desire to unite with Russia into a single state and age of respondents: among youth up to 30 years old 5% want this unification to be realized, among people of 30-54 years old – 11% support that, and among people older than 55 years – 17%.
- It is obvious, that among supporters of joining the Custom Union, there is more people supporting unification with Russia (26,5%), than among those, oriented on joining the EU (1%). However, even among supporters of entering the Custom Union majority wants to preserve the status-quo in relations with Russia (69%). Among people, having negative attitude towards Maidan, only 21% wants to unite with Russia into a single state.
- Among supporters of political parties the highest percentage of people, who wants join Ukraine to join Russia, is among communists’ electorate (35,5%), but even in this case majority consider that Ukraine and Russia should be friendly independent states (63%). Among Party of Regions voters 28% support unification with Russia.
- In Russia 16% of population support unification with Ukraine into one state.
ТАБЛИЦІ
What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like? (region-specific results)2
|
West |
Centre |
South |
East |
Ukraine in general |
Relations should be the same as with other states – with closed borders, visas and customs houses. |
24.0 |
20.9 |
10.5 |
2.0 |
14.7 |
Ukraine and Russia must be independent, but friendly states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses. |
66.7 |
69.7 |
63.8 |
72.2 |
68.0 |
Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state |
0.7 |
5.4 |
19.4 |
25.8 |
12.5 |
Difficult to say/No answer |
8.6 |
3.9 |
6.3 |
0.0 |
4.7 |
What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like? (by nationality)
|
Ukrainians |
Russians |
Ukraine in general |
Relations should be the same as with other states – with closed borders, visas and customs houses. |
17.4 |
4.6 |
14.7 |
Ukraine and Russia must be independent, but friendly states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses. |
68.4 |
62.9 |
68.0 |
Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state |
8.7 |
31.8 |
12.5 |
Difficult to say/No answer |
5.5 |
0.7 |
4.7 |
What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like? (by age)
|
18–29 |
30–54 |
55 and older |
Ukraine in general |
Relations should be the same as with other states – with closed borders, visas and customs houses. |
20.1 |
15.6 |
11.7 |
14.7 |
Ukraine and Russia must be independent, but friendly states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses. |
66.9 |
68.3 |
67.3 |
68.0 |
Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state |
5.4 |
11.2 |
17.2 |
12.5 |
Difficult to say/No answer |
7.6 |
4.9 |
3.8 |
4.7 |
What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like? (depending on orientation on joining the EU or the Customs Union)
|
EU |
Customs Union |
Difficult to say |
Ukraine in general |
Relations should be the same as with other states – with closed borders, visas and customs houses. |
29.2 |
2.8 |
11.2 |
14.7 |
Ukraine and Russia must be independent, but friendly states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses. |
63.0 |
69.5 |
71.2 |
68.0 |
Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state |
1.1 |
26.5 |
6.4 |
12.5 |
Difficult to say/No answer |
5.8 |
1.1 |
11.1 |
4.7 |
What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like? (depending on attitude towards Maidan)
|
Support Maidan |
Don’t support |
Difficult to say |
Ukraine in general |
Relations should be the same as with other states – with closed borders, visas and customs houses. |
26.0 |
6.6 |
7.6 |
14.7 |
Ukraine and Russia must be independent, but friendly states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses. |
66.9 |
69.2 |
62.1 |
68.0 |
Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state |
2.3 |
21.4 |
8.6 |
12.5 |
Difficult to say/No answer |
4.7 |
3.1 |
22.7 |
4.7 |
What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like? (depending on support to political parties)
|
Batkivshchyna |
Svoboda |
Communist party of Ukraine |
Party of Regions |
UDAR |
Ukraine in general |
Relations should be the same as with other states – with closed borders, visas and customs houses. |
24.8 |
38.6 |
1.4 |
2.7 |
25.5 |
14.7 |
Ukraine and Russia must be independent, but friendly states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses. |
68.9 |
58.4 |
63.1 |
67.9 |
67.9 |
68.0 |
Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state |
0.1 |
0.0 |
35.5 |
28.3 |
2.1 |
12.5 |
Difficult to say/No answer |
5.3 |
2.9 |
0.0 |
1.1 |
5.9 |
4.7 |
Dynamic of public opinion regarding relations between Ukraine and Russia
Ukraine-Russia comparative data (Ukraine - Russia)
Percentage of those, who want Ukraine to join Russia1
|
Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state 2013, % |
Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state February, 8-18 2014, % |
AR Crimea |
35.9 |
41.0 |
Donetsk |
29.8 |
33.2 |
Lugansk |
29.4 |
24.1 |
Оdessa |
22.8 |
24.0 |
Dnipropetrovsk |
14.7 |
13.8 |
Kharkiv |
13.9 |
15.1 |
Zaporizhzhya |
8.9 |
16.7 |
Vinnytsya |
8.6 |
2.7 |
Kyiv (city) |
3.7 |
5.3 |
Poltava |
3.3 |
4.3 |
Kyiv (region) |
3.0 |
6.4 |
Lviv |
0.3 |
0.0 |
What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like?
|
UKRAINE |
Дата |
Relations should be the same as with other states – with closed borders, visas and customs houses |
Ukraine and Russia must be independent, but friendly states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses. |
Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state |
Difficult to say/No answer |
TOTAL |
apr.2008 |
10 |
67 |
20 |
3 |
100 |
sept.2008 |
17 |
66 |
16 |
2 |
100 |
feb.2009 |
8 |
68 |
23 |
1 |
100 |
may.2009 |
10 |
65 |
23 |
2 |
100 |
oct.2009 |
11 |
67 |
19 |
3 |
100 |
mar.2010 |
11 |
67 |
19 |
3 |
100 |
june.2010 |
12 |
70 |
16 |
2 |
100 |
oct.2010 |
10 |
67 |
20 |
2 |
100 |
nov.2011 |
13 |
67 |
16 |
1 |
100 |
feb. 2012 |
13 |
69 |
16 |
2 |
100 |
вер. 2012 |
11 |
72 |
14 |
3 |
100 |
feb.2013 |
13 |
68 |
16 |
3 |
100 |
may.2013 |
11 |
69 |
14 |
5 |
100 |
nov.2013 |
12 |
73 |
9 |
6 |
100 |
feb.2014 |
15 |
68 |
12 |
5 |
100 |
|
RUSSIA |
|
Relations should be the same as with other states – with closed borders, visas and customs houses |
Ukraine and Russia must be independent, but friendly states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses. |
Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state |
Difficult to say/No answer |
TOTAL |
mar.2008 |
19 |
56 |
19 |
6 |
100 |
sept.2008 |
24 |
52 |
13 |
11 |
100 |
jan.2009 |
29 |
51 |
12 |
8 |
100 |
june.2009 |
25 |
55 |
14 |
6 |
100 |
sept.2009 |
25 |
55 |
13 |
7 |
100 |
jan.2010 |
25 |
55 |
14 |
6 |
100 |
may.2010 |
17 |
64 |
13 |
6 |
100 |
sept.2010 |
16 |
60 |
18 |
6 |
100 |
sept.2011 |
16 |
63 |
14 |
6 |
100 |
jan.2012 |
16 |
61 |
16 |
8 |
100 |
sept.2012 |
14 |
60 |
20 |
6 |
100 |
feb.2013 |
13 |
64 |
18 |
6 |
100 |
may.2013 |
19 |
58 |
15 |
8 |
100 |
sept.2013 |
23 |
55 |
16 |
6 |
100 |
jan.2014 |
19 |
59 |
16 |
6 |
100 |
Якими загалом Ви зараз ставитеся до України (до Росії)?
В УКРАЇНІ ДО РОСІЇ ставляться, % |
В РОСІЇ ДО УКРАЇНИ ставляться, % |
Дата |
дуже добре/ в основ- ному добре |
в основному погано/ дуже погано |
ВАЖКО СКАЗАТИ |
РАЗОМ |
Дата |
дуже добре/ в основ- ному добре |
в основному погано/ дуже погано |
ВАЖКО СКАЗАТИ |
РАЗОМ |
квіт.08 |
88 |
7 |
5 |
100 |
бер.08 |
55 |
33 |
12 |
100 |
вер.08 |
88 |
9 |
3 |
100 |
вер.08 |
38 |
53 |
10 |
100 |
лют.09 |
91 |
5 |
4 |
100 |
січ.09 |
29 |
62 |
10 |
100 |
трав.09 |
93 |
4 |
3 |
100 |
трав.09 |
33 |
56 |
11 |
100 |
жовт.09 |
92 |
6 |
3 |
100 |
вер.09 |
46 |
44 |
10 |
100 |
бер.10 |
90 |
6 |
4 |
100 |
бер.10 |
59 |
29 |
12 |
100 |
черв.10 |
92 |
6 |
3 |
100 |
лип.10 |
70 |
22 |
9 |
100 |
жовт.10 |
93 |
4 |
3 |
100 |
жовт.10 |
67 |
21 |
12 |
100 |
лист.11 |
80 |
13 |
7 |
100 |
вер.11 |
68 |
23 |
9 |
100 |
лют.12 |
85 |
9 |
6 |
100 |
січ.12 |
64 |
25 |
12 |
100 |
вер.12 |
83 |
11 |
6 |
100 |
вер.12 |
74 |
17 |
10 |
100 |
лют.13 |
85 |
8 |
7 |
100 |
лют.13 |
69 |
21 |
9 |
100 |
трав.13 |
81 |
10 |
9 |
100 |
трав.13 |
72 |
18 |
9 |
100 |
лист.13 |
82 |
10 |
8 |
100 |
вер.13 |
69 |
22 |
8 |
100 |
лют.14 |
78 |
13 |
9 |
100 |
січ.14 |
66 |
26 |
9 |
100 |
ГРАФІКИ
Графік 1. Ставлення населення України до Росії і населенні Росії до України, % тих, хто ставиться позитивно
Графік 2. Яких відносин з Росією хочуть в Україні?
1 Західний макрорегіон — Волинська, Рівненська. Львівська, Івано-Франківська, Тернопільська, Закарпатська, Хмельницька, Чернівецька області; Центральний макрорегіон — Вінницька, Житомирська, Сумська, Чернігівська, Полтавська, Кіровоградська, Черкаська, Київська області, м. Київ, Південний макрорегіон — Дніпропетровська, Запорізька, Миколаївська, Херсонська, Одеська області, АР Крим (включно з м. Севастополем), Східний макрорегіон — Донецька, Луганська, Харківська області
2 Наводяться дані лише по тих областях, де кількість респондентів достатня для статистичної репрезентативності
4.3.2014
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