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Electoral intentions of voters: Elections to Verkhovna Rada

In a period of July 16 - 23, 2014 Kiev International Institute of Sociology conducted the nationwide public opinion survey by the customer order. Data was collected from 2040respondents,living in 110 settlements in all regions of Ukraine (except Crimea) through the method of personal interview.The sample was random with quota selection at the last stage and is representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

Because of the military operations, in Luhansk the survey was conducted using the method of computer assisted personal interviews (CATI).

Statistical sample error (with probability of 0.95 and design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed:

3.3% — for indicators close to 50%;
2,8% — for indicators close to 25%;
2,0% — for indicators close to 10%;
1,4% — for indicators close to 5%.

 

If the elections to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place in the end of July and Y. Lutsenko was stated as the leader of the party “Solidarnist”, the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above would vote for the following parties:

  • 12,3%  - for the Radical party of O. Lyashko;

  • 9,7% - for the Ukrainian union "Batkivshchyna";

  • 6,4% - for “UDAR of Vitaliy Klychko”;

  • 6,4% - for “Gromadyanska pozitsiya” ;

  • 6,2% - for “Solidarnist”;

  • 3,9% - for the Ukrainian union “Svoboda”;

  • 3,0%  - for “Sylna Ukraina”;

  • 2,2%  - for the Communist party of Ukraine;

  • 1,9% - for “Samopomich”;

  • 1,5% - for Partiya regioniv;

  • 2,3%  - for all other parties in total;

  • 2,3% would spoil the ballot;

  • 16,7% decided not to participate;

  • 25,5% have not decided yet whom to vote for.

 

Therefore, ifthe parliamentary elections took place in in the end of July and those, who has not decided yet, did not come to the elections, about 56% of  voters would participate and their votes would be distributed in the following way:

  • 22,2%  - for the Radical party of O. Lyashko;

  • 17,4% - for the Ukrainian union "Batkivshchyna";

  • 11,5% - for “UDAR of Vitaliy Klychko”;

  • 11,5% - for “Gromadyanska pozitsiya” ;

  • 11,1% - for “Solidarnist”;

  • 6,9% - for the Ukrainian union “Svoboda”;

  • 5,3%  - for “Sylna Ukraina”;

  • 3,9%  - for the Communist party of Ukraine;

  • 3,3% - for “Samopomich”;

  • 2,7% - for Partiya regioniv;

  • 4,2%  - for all other parties in total.

 

If P. Poroshenko was stated as a leader of the party “Solidarnist”, the votes of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above would be distributed in the following way:

  • 12,4%  - for the Radical party of O. Lyashko;

  • 12,3% - for “Solidarnist”;

  • 9,3% - for the Ukrainian union "Batkivshchyna";

  • 6,4% - for “Gromadyanska pozitsiya” ;

  • 5,6% - for “UDAR of Vitaliy Klychko”;

  • 3,5% - for the Ukrainian union “Svoboda”;

  • 3,1%  - for “Sylna Ukraina”;

  • 1,9% - for “Samopomich”;

  • 1,8%  - for the Communist party of Ukraine;

  • 1,6% - for Partiya regioniv;

  • 2,5%  - for all other parties in total;

  • 2,0% would spoil the ballot;

  • 14,5% decided not to participate;

  • 23,1% have not decided yet whom to vote for.

 

Therefore, ifthe party “Solidarnist” was headed by P. Poroshenko, about 60% of  voters would participate and their votes would be distributed in the following way:

  • 20,5%  - for the Radical party of O. Lyashko;

  • 20,3% - for “Solidarnist”;

  • 15,3% - for the Ukrainian union "Batkivshchyna";

  • 10,6% - for “Gromadyanska pozitsiya” ;

  • 9,3% - for “UDAR of Vitaliy Klychko”;

  • 5,7% - for the Ukrainian union “Svoboda”;

  • 5,1%  - for “Sylna Ukraina”;

  • 3,2% - for “Samopomich”;

  • 3,0%  - for the Communist party of Ukraine;

  • 2,6% - for Partiya regioniv;

  • 4,2%  - for all other parties in total.

 

If the block of P. Poroshenko, consisted of the parties “UDAR”, “Solidarnist” and “Tretya Ukrainska respublica”, was also allowed to participate, the votes of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above would be distributed in the following way: 

  • 19,0% - for the Block of P. Poroshenko;

  • 12,6%  - for the Radical party of O. Lyashko;

  • 9,0% - for the Ukrainian union "Batkivshchyna";

  • 6,6% - for “Gromadyanska pozitsiya”;

  • 3,5% - for the Ukrainian union “Svoboda”;

  • 3,1%  - for “Sylna Ukraina”;

  • 2,1%  - for the Communist party of Ukraine;

  • 1,6% - for “Samopomich”;

  • 1,4% - for Partiya regioniv;

  • 1,5%  - for all other parties in total;

  • 1,8% would spoil the ballot;

  • 15,2% decided not to participate;

  • 22,5% have not decided yet whom to vote for.

Thus, if the block of P. Poroshenko participated in the elections, about 60% of voters would come and their votes would be distributed in the following way: 

  • 31,4% - for the Block of P. Poroshenko;

  • 20,9%  - for the Radical party of O. Lyashko;

  • 14,9% - for the Ukrainian union "Batkivshchyna";

  • 10,9% - for “Gromadyanska pozitsiya”;

  • 5,8% - for the Ukrainian union “Svoboda”;

  • 5,1%  - for “Sylna Ukraina”;

  • 3,4%  - for the Communist party of Ukraine;

  • 2,7% - for “Samopomich”;

  • 2,4% - for Partiya regioniv;

  • 2,5%  - for all other parties in total.

 

Addition

Question about the nominal parliamentary elections, where the party “Solidarnist” was headed by Y. Lutsenko, was stated as the following:

Would you participate in the elections to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, if they took place the next Sunday? IF “YES”Whom would you vote for, if there were the following parties in the ballot?

  % of the whole population aged 18 and above % of those, who wants to participate and has decided whom to vote for
Political party UU “Batkivshchyna” (Yuliya Tymoshenko, Arseniyi Yatseniuk) 1.5 2.7
Political party UU “Svoboda” (Oled Tyagnybok) 6.2 11.1
Political party «Gromadyanska pozytsiya» (Anatoliyi Grytsenko) 0.6 1.0
Political party “Democratychnyi alians” (Vasyl Gatsko) 12.3 22.2
Communist party of Ukraine (Petro Symonenko) 3.0 5.3
Political party «Obiyednannya Samopomich» (Andriyi Sadovyi) 0.2 0.3
Political party «Nove jyttya» (Lesya Orobets) 6.4 11.5
Partiya regioniv (Mykhailo Dobkin) 0.1 0.2
Political party «Solidarnist» (Yurii Lutsenko) 1.0 1.6
Political party «Pravyi sektor» (Dmytro Yarosh) 2.3 ---
Radical party of O. Lyashko 16.7 ---
Political party «Sylna Ukraina» (Sergii Tigipko) 25.5 ---
Socialist party of Ukraine (Oleksandr Moroz) 1.5 2.7
Political party «UDAR of Vitaliy Klychko» 6.2 11.1
Ukrainian public movement “Ukrainskiy vybir” (Victor Medvedchuk) 0.6 1.0
Another party 12.3 22.2
WILL SPOIL THE BALLOT 3.0 5.3
WILL NOT PARTICIPATE 0.2 0.3
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 6.4 11.5

 

Differentiation by regions

(%of the whole population of region aged 18 and above)

  West Centr South East
Political party UU “Batkivshchyna” (Yuliya Tymoshenko, Arseniyi Yatseniuk) 15.4 13.1 6.6 2.0
Political party UU “Svoboda” (Oled Tyagnybok) 6.5 6.0 2.0 0.0
Political party «Gromadyanska pozytsiya» (Anatoliyi Grytsenko) 9.5 7.3 6.6 1.6
Political party “Democratychnyi alians” (Vasyl Gatsko) 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.4
Communist party of Ukraine (Petro Symonenko) 0.6 0.8 4.4 3.4
Political party «Obiyednannya Samopomich» (Andriyi Sadovyi) 4.5 1.7 1.1 0.0
Political party «Nove jyttya» (Lesya Orobets) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4
Partiya regioniv (Mykhailo Dobkin) 0.0 0.8 2.6 2.9
Political party «Solidarnist» (Yurii Lutsenko) 6.1 6.9 7.9 3.4
Political party «Pravyi sektor» (Dmytro Yarosh) 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2
Radical party of O. Lyashko 27.1 15.3 4.6 0.7
Political party «Sylna Ukraina» (Sergii Tigipko) 1.9 0.9 6.4 3.4
Socialist party of Ukraine (Oleksandr Moroz) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
Political party «UDAR of Vitaliy Klychko» 7.4 7.1 5.7 4.9
Ukrainian public movement “Ukrainskiy vybir” (Victor Medvedchuk) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
Another party 0.2 0.5 1.8 1.3
WILL SPOIL THE BALLOT 1.3 1.4 2.4 4.5
WILL NOT PARTICIPATE 3.5 7.7 18.2 41.8
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 14.5 29.2 28.8 28.1

 

Question about the nominal parliamentary elections, where the party “Solidarnist” was headed by P.Poroshenko, was stated as the following:

Whom would you vote for, if there were the following parties in the ballot?

  % of the whole population aged 18 and above % of those, who wants to participate and has decided whom to vote for
Political party UU “Batkivshchyna” (Yuliya Tymoshenko, Arseniyi Yatseniuk) 9.3 15.3
Political party UU “Svoboda” (Oled Tyagnybok) 3.5 5.7
Political party «Gromadyanska pozytsiya» (Anatoliyi Grytsenko) 6.4 10.6
Political party “Democratychnyi alians” (Vasyl Gatsko) 0.3 0.5
Communist party of Ukraine (Petro Symonenko) 1.8 3.0
Political party «Obiyednannya Samopomich» (Andriyi Sadovyi) 1.9 3.2
Political party «Nove jyttya» (Lesya Orobets) 0.3 0.4
Partiya regioniv (Mykhailo Dobkin) 1.6 2.6
Political party «Solidarnist» (Petro Poroshenko) 12.3 20.3
Political party «Pravyi sektor» (Dmytro Yarosh) 0.6 1.0
Radical party of O. Lyashko 12.4 20.5
Political party «Sylna Ukraina» (Sergii Tigipko) 3.1 5.1
Socialist party of Ukraine (Oleksandr Moroz) 0.2 0.3
Political party «UDAR of Vitaliy Klychko» 5.6 9.3
Ukrainian public movement “Ukrainskiy vybir” (Victor Medvedchuk) 0.1 0.1
Political party “Tretya Ukrainska respublica” (Yuriy Lutsenko) 0.7 1.2
Another party 0.4 0.6
WILL SPOIL THE BALLOT 2.0 ---
WILL NOT PARTICIPATE 14.5 ---
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 23.1 ---

 

Differentiation by regions

(%of the whole population of the region aged 18 and above)

  West Centr South East
Political party UU “Batkivshchyna” (Yuliya Tymoshenko, Arseniyi Yatseniuk) 13.5 12.3 6.1 2.5
Political party UU “Svoboda” (Oled Tyagnybok) 5.9 4.7 2.0 0.0
Political party «Gromadyanska pozytsiya» (Anatoliyi Grytsenko) 9.1 6.2 7.2 2.5
Political party “Democratychnyi alians” (Vasyl Gatsko) 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.8
Communist party of Ukraine (Petro Symonenko) 0.2 0.6 4.0 3.3
Political party «Obiyednannya Samopomich» (Andriyi Sadovyi) 4.3 1.9 1.1 0.0
Political party «Nove jyttya» (Lesya Orobets) 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
Partiya regioniv (Mykhailo Dobkin) 0.0 1.1 2.7 3.0
Political party «Solidarnist» (Petro Poroshenko) 10.7 14.1 14.6 8.2
Political party «Pravyi sektor» (Dmytro Yarosh) 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.3
Radical party of O. Lyashko 25.9 14.2 5.2 0.8
Political party «Sylna Ukraina» (Sergii Tigipko) 2.0 1.1 6.5 3.8
Socialist party of Ukraine (Oleksandr Moroz) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
Political party «UDAR of Vitaliy Klychko» 6.7 6.2 5.4 3.6
Ukrainian public movement “Ukrainskiy vybir” (Victor Medvedchuk) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Political party “Tretya Ukrainska respublica” (Yuriy Lutsenko) 1.1 0.5 1.1 0.3
Another party 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8
WILL SPOIL THE BALLOT 0.9 1.9 2.2 3.3
WILL NOT PARTICIPATE 3.7 6.5 18.0 37.9
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 14.3 27.2 22.9 27.5

 

Question about the nominal parliamentary elections, where the block of P. Poroshenko, consisted of the parties “UDAR”, “Solidarnist” and “Tretya Ukrainska respublica” was in the list of parties, was stated as the following:

Whom would you vote for, if there were the following parties in the ballot?

  % of the whole population aged 18 and above % of those, who wants to participate and has decided whom to vote for
Political party UU “Batkivshchyna” (Yuliya Tymoshenko, Arseniyi Yatseniuk) 9.0 14.9
Political party UU “Svoboda” (Oled Tyagnybok) 3.5 5.8
Political party «Gromadyanska pozytsiya» (Anatoliyi Grytsenko) 6.6 10.9
Political party “Democratychnyi alians” (Vasyl Gatsko) 0.1 0.2
Communist party of Ukraine (Petro Symonenko) 2.1 3.4
Political party «Obiyednannya Samopomich» (Andriyi Sadovyi) 1.6 2.7
Political party «Nove jyttya» (Lesya Orobets) 0.3 0.4
Partiya regioniv (Mykhailo Dobkin) 1.4 2.4
Block of P. Porodhenko (Political party «Solidarnist», Political party «UDAR of Vitaliy Klychko», Political party “Tretya Ukrainska respublica” (Yuriy Lutsenko)) 19.0 31.4
Political party «Pravyi sektor» (Dmytro Yarosh) 0.6 1.0
Radical party of O. Lyashko 12.6 20.9
Political party «Sylna Ukraina» (Sergii Tigipko) 3.1 5.1
Socialist party of Ukraine (Oleksandr Moroz) 0.2 0.3
Ukrainian public movement “Ukrainskiy vybir” (Victor Medvedchuk) 0.1 0.2
Another party 0.3 0.5
WILL SPOIL THE BALLOT 1.8 ---
WILL NOT PARTICIPATE 15.2 ---
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 22.5 ---

 

Differentiation by regions

(% of the whole population of region aged 18 and above)

  West Centr South East
Political party UU “Batkivshchyna” (Yuliya Tymoshenko, Arseniyi Yatseniuk) 13.0 12.2 5.5 2.6
Political party UU “Svoboda” (Oled Tyagnybok) 6.1 4.9 1.8 0.0
Political party «Gromadyanska pozytsiya» (Anatoliyi Grytsenko) 9.1 6.5 7.3 2.6
Political party “Democratychnyi alians” (Vasyl Gatsko) 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Communist party of Ukraine (Petro Symonenko) 0.0 0.8 4.6 3.7
Political party «Obiyednannya Samopomich» (Andriyi Sadovyi) 3.5 1.6 1.1 0.0
Political party «Nove jyttya» (Lesya Orobets) 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.9
Partiya regioniv (Mykhailo Dobkin) 0.0 0.9 2.4 2.9
Block of P. Porodhenko (Political party «Solidarnist», Political party «UDAR of Vitaliy Klychko», Political party “Tretya Ukrainska respublica” (Yuriy Lutsenko)) 18.9 22.2 19.8 12.3
Political party «Pravyi sektor» (Dmytro Yarosh) 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.3
Radical party of O. Lyashko 28.2 13.8 4.4 0.6
Political party «Sylna Ukraina» (Sergii Tigipko) 2.0 1.1 6.2 4.0
Socialist party of Ukraine (Oleksandr Moroz) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
Ukrainian public movement “Ukrainskiy vybir” (Victor Medvedchuk) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
Another party 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6
WILL SPOIL THE BALLOT 0.9 1.6 2.0 3.4
WILL NOT PARTICIPATE 3.7 6.6 19.8 39.8
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 13.7 26.6 23.8 25.2

 

Western macroregion: Volynska, Rivnenska, Lvivska, Ivano-Frankivska, Ternopilska, Zakarpatska, Khmelnytska, Chernivetska oblasts (24% of voters);

 Central macroregion: Vinnytska, Zhytomyrska, Sumska, Chernihivska, Poltavska, Kirovohradska, Cherkaska, Kyivska oblasts, Kyiv (32% of voters);

 Southern macroregion: Dnipropetrovska, Zaporizhska, Mykolaivska, Khersonska, Odesska oblasts (23% of voters);

 Eastern macroregion: Donetska, Luhanska, Kharkivska oblasts (22% of voters).


25.7.2014
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