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The views and opinions of the population of Ukraine concerning the methods of resistance to the invaders / occupants: September 2015

This year, from 31 of August to 13 of September Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) has conducted a nationwide opinion poll on request the government organization "Center for Strategic Research" and International Center on Nonviolent Conflict. 1000 respondents above 18 years old all over Ukraine (except Crimea), selected by stochastic sample were interviewed by the method of computer assistant telephone interview (CATI).
In Lugansk and Donetsk region the research was conducted only on territories which are under control of Ukrainian government, it was conducted in Donetsk too, which is not under Ukrainian control.
Statistical sampling error of our study with probability 0.95 does not exceed 3.4% (theoretical error is 3.1%, design effect - 1.1). Apart from statistical error there is also a systematic error due to the use landline phones for the survey, which has less than half of the population that could add to uncertainty about 2%. The total error of the survey with probability 0.95 does not exceed 5.4%.
 
The perception of the accession of Crimea to Russia and events in Donbass

To the question "Do you agree or disagree with the fact that the accession of Crimea to Russia in 2014 is its occupation?" 77.5% of respondents agreed with the statement, 10.8% - disagreed, and 11.7% undecided with their opinion or refused to answer.
Also on the question "Which of these views is closer to you?" about the events in Donbass 79.8% of respondents chose the option that "Russia's actions in the Donbas are actually a military intervention – an armed intervention in the internal affairs of Ukraine", 7% chose the option "Russia's actions in the Donbas are help to  people of Donbass in its struggle for independence”. "Another 13.2% of respondents were undecided with their opinion or refused to answer.

 

Which actions are preferred by residents of Ukraine in case of a foreign armed intervention/occupation

On the question "Which actions would you have preferred under foreign armed intervention in your town or village?" answers of respondents were distributed as follows:

  • 23,8% chose the option to commit armed resistance,

  • 28,6% - to resist by taking part in civil resistance actions - such as demonstrations, protests, marches, boycotts, strikes, civil disobedience,

  • 11% - go to a safer region Ukraine,

  • 3,2% - to go abroad

  • 13,1% - do nothing

  • 18,4% - undecided with their opinion,

  • 1,9% - refused to answer.

 

On the question "Which actions would you have preferred in terms of foreign military occupation of your town or village?" answers of respondents were as follows:

  • 25,2% chose the option to commit armed resistance,

  • 26% - oppose by participating in actions of civil resistance - such as demonstrations, protests, marches, boycotts, strikes, civil disobedience,

  • 11,9% - to go to a safer region Ukraine,

  • 3,4% - to go abroad

  • 13,1% - do nothing

  • 18,5% - undecided with their opinion,

  • 1,9% - refused to answer.

What methods residents of Ukraine consider more effective to deal with the enemy who is superior in strength

To the question "Which method of combating armed invasion, carried out by the superior power of foreign enemy, do you consider more effective?" answers of respondents were as follows:

  • 34,4% chose the option armed struggle

  • 34,7% - non-violent struggle (such as demonstrations, protests, marches, boycotts, strikes, civil disobedience, refusal to cooperate with the intervener), headed by civilians,

  • 28,5% - undecided with their opinion,

  • 2,4% - refused to answer.

The perception of the efficacy of nonviolent resistance

To the question "Do you agree or disagree with the following statement:" Demonstrations, protests, marches, boycotts, strikes, civil disobedience or refusal to cooperate with the invaders would be more effective means of struggle against foreign military invasion than military resistance"?" answers of respondents were as follows:

  • 11% completely agree with this statement,

  • 27,8% - rather agree with this statement,

  • 16,6% - rather disagree with this statement,

  • 21% - completely disagree with this statement,

  • 21,9% - undecided with their opinion,

  • 1,7% - refused to answer.

To the question "Do you agree or disagree with the following statement:" Demonstrations, protests, marches, boycotts, strikes, civil disobedience or refusal to cooperate with the invaders would be more effective means of struggle against foreign military occupation than military resistance"?" answers of respondents were as follows:

  • 11,5% strongly agree with this statement,

  • 23,9% - rather agree with this statement,

  • 19,2% - rather disagree with this statement,

  • 21,1% - completely disagree with this statement,

  • 22,3% - undecided with their opinion,

  • 2% - refused to answer.

 

Methods of return of the Crimea and some regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions under the control of Ukrainian government

 

Respondents who believe the accession of the Crimea was its occupation, raised the question "How can Ukraine get back the occupied Crimea?". Answers of the respondents were divided as follows:

  • 14,3% chose the option weapons

  • 43,2% - negotiations,

  • 12,9% - non-military actions of non-violent resistance, which create barriers to invaders and which can get support of the local population,

  • 8,8% - there is no way,

  • 20,3% - undecided with their opinion,

  • 0,5% - refused to answer.


Respondents, who believe the events on the Donbas are intervention of Russia, raised the question "How can Ukraine get back the occupied Donbass?" Answers of the respondents were divided as follows:

  • 25,3% chose the option weapons

  • 41,1% - negotiations,

  • 9,1% - non-military actions of non-violent resistance, which create barriers to invaders and which can get support the local population,

  • 3,5% - there is no way,

  • 20,4% - undecided with their opinion,

  • 0,5% - refused to answer.

 

Which promotions of resistance the invaders / occupiers are willing to participate residents of Ukraine

During the survey, respondents who believe the accession of the Crimea was its occupation or find events in Donbass are intervention of Russia were asked which shares of resistance invaders or occupiers they are ready to join. Based on security reasons, respondents who are living in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, which temporarily are not under control of Ukraine, were not asked these questions.

The distributions of responses are below.

The answers to the question: "In which of the ongoing large-scale operations against foreign armed invasion would you take part?"

  Yes No Hard to say Refuse to answer
Military action consisting guerrilla forces or the army 25.9 58.4 13.4 2.3
Attempts on certain officials of occupier 9.2 72.7 15.7 2.5
Blocking roads to slow the advancement of the enemy 42.3 38.1 17.0 2.7
The boycott of businesses that support the occupier 54.7 25.8 17.1 2.4
Participation in peaceful actions and demonstrations 56.6 26.6 14.6 2.2
The general strike against the occupier 47.6 31.1 18.8 2.5
Using Ukrainian symbols on the workplace and at home 60.6 21.3 16.0 2.0
Joining human shields, covering public institutions 25.1 53.5 18.8 2.7
Trying to talk with the soldiers invaders to demonstrate peaceful intentions, reduce willingness of soldiers to obey orders or awakening in them a sense of guilt for committed actions 33.1 45.7 18.7 2.5

 

The answers to the question: "Which actions against a foreign occupier in your city, you are ready to join or start on your own?"

  Yes No Hard to say Refuse to answer
Armed attacks against occupier soldiers and local collaborators 20.5 63.5 11.9 4.1
Armed attacks or undermining premises of occupier and local collaborators 18.2 65.7 11.8 4.3
Intentional elimination occupation leaders or local collaborators 8.3 74.5 13.0 4.2
Boycott of invader’s political institutions and organizations 50.2 30.0 15.1 4.7
Boycott of organized social and cultural activities 52.8 29.2 14.1 4.0
Boycott of those who cooperates with the occupier (refusal to speak, provide information or providing incorrect information) 53.6 27.1 14.7 4.6
Refusal to pay taxes to occupation administration 56.0 23.4 16.5 4.1
Cover anti occupation activists nonviolent movement 38.0 33.7 23.4 4.9
Strike 43.3 37.7 14.6 4.5
Damage factory property or equipment produced for military purposes 22.9 52.2 20.6 4.3
The spread of anti-occupation information, leaflets, graffiti 39.8 39.8 15.9 4.6
Organisation of local committees of resistance that would plan the action of nonviolent resistance to invaders by place of residence and workplace 31.3 41.1 22.9 4.7
Work in the underground anti occupation edition 26.7 50.2 18.8 4.2

 

The answers to the question: "Are you ready to take part in such actions if you are living under repressive foreign occupation in which people die, they are arrested and intimidated for independent activities?"

  Yes No Hard to say Refuse to answer
Armed struggle 24.8 58.4 12.4 4.3
Strike 41.4 40.1 14.0 4.5
Starvation 12.8 64.7 17.7 4.8
Slowing down the work 42.0 34.6 18.4 4.9
Deliberate inefficiency (slapdash) at work, if it can be important for occupiers 38.9 35.7 20.4 5.1
Distribution of leaflets and graffiti 36.9 40.6 18.0 4.6
Wearing national clothing and demonstrations flags that are banned by the occupier. 47.7 26.6 21.0 4.7
Blocking roads to create traffic jams at strategic locations 40.5 38.2 16.3 5.1
Participation in ostracism of invaders and their collaborators 24.5 36.1 33.3 6.1
Documenting the violations of human rights and transfer of information 37.2 34.8 22.8 5.2

 

The answers to the question: "In terms of repressive foreign occupation and persecution and arrests of people for their independent actions, would you resist occupation involving in ...?"

  Yes No Hard to say Refuse to answer
Armed struggle 24.5 56.3 13.9 5.4
Refusal to work in invader’s police 51.9 26.6 15.1 6.4
Eventually work in the police but work ineffective 16.5 57.2 19.9 6.4
Disinformation of the occupier 44.2 29.4 19.9 6.5
Joining the underground nonviolent organization 33.3 41.4 19.4 5.9
Starvation 11.3 64.9 18.3 5.4
Participation in creative actions (such as creating a satirical puppet theater that makes fun of leaders of Russia / LNR / DNR / Crimea etc.) 17.6 53.3 23.3 5.9
Hanging from your window the  flag  of Ukraine / Crimean Tatars, etc. 30.0 37.3 26.7 5.9
Writing on banknotes the motto "Glory to Ukraine!" 31.0 36.3 27.5 5.3
Drawing on the walls of your city graffiti against LNR,DNR, Kremlin 17.6 56.0 21.1 5.3

 

Familiarity with the miners' protests in Donbass years 1989-1991

To the question "Do you know that in 1989-1991 Donbas miners have organized strikes, demonstrations and marches demanding the release Ukraine from the USSR, and their actions played a significant role in attaining Ukraine's independence?" answers of respondents were as follows:

  • 4,7% answered that they were very well aware of this,

  • 8,3% - enough is known about it,

  • 21,1% - slightly aware of it,

  • 46,5% - do not know anything about it,

  • 18,2% - could not answer the question,

  • 1,2% - refused to answer.

If respondents reported that they have little, enough or very well aware of the miners' protests while they consider the actions of Russia in the Donbass are intervention and supported its release, they also was asked question “In your opinion, to change the political situation in the occupied territories of Donbass, it would be helpful to take steps used by miners of Donbass in 1989-1991?” Answers of the respondents were distributed as follows:

  • 12,4% believe that it would be very useful,

  • 27% - a little bit helpful

  • 21,6% - would not be useful,

  • 39,6% - undecided with their opinion.

If respondents reported that they have little, enough or very well aware of the miners' protests while they considered the annexation of Crimea is its occupation and supported its release, they also was asked question “In your opinion, to change the political situation in the occupied territories of Crimea, it would be helpful to take steps used by miners of Donbass in 1989-1991?”. Answers of the respondents were distributed as follows:

  • 8,4% believe that it would be very useful,

  • 31,1% - a little bit helpful

  • 20,9% - would not be useful,

  • 39% - undecided with their opinion.


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28.9.2015
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