* Before September 2015, the question was formulated as follows: “Which direction of foreign policy should Ukraine take? – Joining the European Union, joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, or joining neither the EU nor the Customs Union”.

** For September 2013 and the time before it, data are presented for Ukraine with AR of Crimea. Surveys have not been conducted in Crimea since March 2014, data are presented for Ukraine without AR of Crimea. In September and December of 2015 in Luhansk region surveys were conducted only in the territories that are controlled by Ukraine. In February 2016 survey was conducted in Luhansk region only in the territories that are controlled by Ukraine, in Donetsk region – mostly only in the territories that are controlled by Ukraine. In September 2016 in Luhansk region surveys were conducted only in the territories that are controlled by Ukraine.

Data in the dynamics without data for the population of AR of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

As to the regional distribution, in September 2016 pro-European sentiments prevail in the West and the Centre of the country: a course of joining the European Union is supported by 72% of residents of the Western regions and by 46% of the residents of the Central region. Almost a third (29%) of the population of the Central region selects independent course for Ukraine, that is without joining neither the EU nor the Customs Union. Only 4% of the inhabitants of the western oblasts and 8% of the population of the Central region support the accession to the Customs Union. In the East and the South of the country, most of the population (43% and 40% respectively) would prefer Ukraine to remain neutral, without joining neither the EU nor the Customs Union. The course of European integration supports 28% of the population in the South region and 23% of the residents of the Eastern region, while a pro-Russian course is supported by 28% in the East and 22% in the South.

Western macroregion:  Volynska, Zakarpatska, Ivano-Frankivska, Lvivska, Rivnenska, Ternopilska, Khmelnytska, Chernivets`ka oblasts (regions); Central macroregion: Kyiv city, Kyivs`ka, Vinnytska, Zhytomyrska, Kirovohradska, Poltavska, Sumska, Cherkaska, Chernihivska oblasts; South macroregion : Dnipropetrovska, Zaporizka, Mykolaivska, Odeska, Khersonska oblasts; Eastern macroregion:  Kharkivska, Donetska and Luhanska oblasts (only regions that are controlled by Ukraine).

Commentary by Volodymyr Panioto, CEO of KIIS:

The changes that are taking place in Ukraine after the annexation of the Crimea and the beginning of the war in Donbas, may be associated with a change in the views of the population of Ukraine, and with the change of the territories in which social scientists can conduct surveys (these changes are reflected in the graph 1 and table 1). So that to see what is going on exactly "in the heads" of people, what changes occur  in the opinion of the population (and not because of the territorial changes), we examined the dynamics of the foreign policy orientation from February 2013 to September 2016 only in the areas that have not changed - in all regions of Ukraine except for Crimea and Donbas (graph 2 and table 2 in the addition). As you can see, the dynamics of change is the same, what means that an increase of pro-European sentiment is happening not only because we do not consider the opinion of residents of the occupied Crimea and Donbas but because changes took place "in the heads" of people.

Data on the possible outcomes of a referendum on joining the EU was published by KIIS previously at http://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=650&page=1, they show what would be a result of the support for the EU, if ballots had only a question about the EU with only two response options - "for" and "against."

ADDITION. Questions in the questionnaire and the table

Table 1. «In your opinion, which direction of the foreign policy should Ukraine take», %, February 2013 – September 2016*

* Before September 2015, the question was formulated as follows: “Which direction of foreign policy should Ukraine take? – Joining the European Union, joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, or joining neither the EU nor the Customs Union”. Surveys have not been conducted in AR of Crimea since March 2014, data are presented for Ukraine without AR of Crimea.

** For September 2013 and the time  before it, data are presented for Ukraine with AR of Crimea. Surveys have not been conducted in Crimea since March 2014, data are presented for Ukraine without AR of Crimea. In September and December of 2015 in Luhansk region surveys were conducted only in the territories that are controlled by Ukraine. In February 2016 survey was conducted in Luhansk region only in the territories that are controlled by Ukraine, in Donetsk region – mostly only in the territories that are controlled by Ukraine. In September 2016 in Luhansk region surveys were conducted only in the territories that are controlled by Ukraine.

Table 2. «In your opinion, which direction of the foreign policy should Ukraine take», %, data for Ukraine without including AR of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk regions, February 2013 – September 2016.

Table 3. «In your opinion, which direction of the foreign policy should Ukraine take», by macro-regions, September 2016.

Westernregion: Volyns`ka, Zakarpats`ka, Ivano-Frankivs`ka, Lvivs`ka, Rivnens`ka, Ternopils`ka, Khmel`nytska, Chernivets`ka oblast`; Centralregion: Kyiv city, Kyivs`ka, Vynnyts`ka, Zhytomyrs`ka, Kirovograds`ka, Poltavs`ka, Sums`ka, Cherkas`ka, Chernihivs`ka oblast`; Southregion: Dnipropetrovs`ka, Zaporiz`ka, Mykolaivs`ka, Odes`ka, Khersons`ka oblast`; Easternregion: Kharkivs`ka, Donets`ka, Luhans`ka oblast`.