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Dynamics of the attitudes of the Ukrainians towards public opinion polls, December 2016

Prepared by Vladimir Paniotto

In a period of December 3-12 of 2016, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) has conducted its own public opinion poll. Data were collected from 2040 respondents living in 110 settlements (PSU) in all regions of Ukraine (except for AR of Crimea) with the method of personal interviewing. The sample was stochastic and 4-staged with quota selection on the last stage, the sample is representative of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

In Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (regions) survey was conducted only in the territories that are controlled by the Ukrainian government. In this survey, the sample covered only the controlled part of Donbas in the same proportion as it was registered for Donbas voters in the last parliamentary elections (October 2014) according to the data of CEC.

The statistical sample error (with a probability of 0.95 and design–effect of 1.5) does not exceed 3.3% for indicators close to 50%, 2.8% – for indicators close to 25%, 2.0% – for indicators close to 10%, 1.4% – for indicators close to 5%.


December poll showed that half of the population of Ukraine (50%) trust data of the sociological organizations that have been operating for a long time already, 14% - do not trust, others do not have an opinion on this matter. The rate of trust toward sociological surveys has not changed over the past year, the rate of mistrust slightly increased that is why trust-mistrust balance (percentage of those who trust minus percentage of those who mistrust) slightly decreased (from 40% to 36%) comparing to the analogical data of December 2015

 

In particular, the survey showed that:

During the past 11 years the level of trust to the results of sociological polls, conducted by organizations, that have been operating for a long time and publish results of their surveys, among population of Ukraine increased significantly from 36% in 2002 to 47% in 2004, and after that remained more or less the same with only few changes. The trust-mistrust balance for sociological centers (percentage of those, who trust, minus the percentage of those, who mistrust) grew since 2013: +31% in November of 2013, then +39% in 2014, a +40% in 2015 and +36% in 2016 (see graph 1).

 

Graph 1. Trust-mistrust balance for sociological centers (percentage of those, who trust, minus percentage of those, who mistrust) from 2002 to 2016


 

* No significant differences in trust to sociological data by gender, age, education, and regions detected.

 

Commentary of VolodymyrPaniotto, CEO of KIIS, professor of NaUKMA:

«The situation with trust to data of sociological surveys seems to be stable over the past 10 years: half of the population trust sociologists. We would like a better off; we have little chance to persuade that 14% who do not trust sociologists, but we can concentrate on persuading that 35% who have not decided with their opinion yet. However, considering the low rate of trust to most social institutions, our percentage is not that bad. Of course, we can not accurately compare the survey data on trust to sociologists and the data on trust to social institutionsthat we released yesterday.

First of all, data on trust to sociologists might be somewhat inflated, because it can be assumed, that people who do not trust sociological research often refuse to participate in surveys. Second, the question in that another poll was formulated differently, and we do not know for sure how nuances of formulation influence the results. Nonetheless, it can be said, that rate of trust to sociologists is lower than the trust rate for the church, volunteers and the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but higher than to other social institutions and groups (mass media and governmental structures, in particular)».

 

Addition

 

Do you trust the results of sociological surveys conducted by organizations, that have been operating and publishing results of their surveys foralong time already?, % of respondents

By years:


  2002 2004 2009 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Yes 36 47 45 51 46 48 50 50
Difficult to answer 32 37 35 34 37 40 36 35
No 29 13 14 13 15 9 10 14
Refusal from reply 3 3 6 2 2 3 4 2
Trust-mistrust balance (% of those, who trust, minus % of those, who mistrust) 7 34 31 38 31 39 40 36

 

For comments please contact Vladimir Paniotto v.paniotto@gmail.com


2.2.2017
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