Press releases and reports - The readiness of the Ukrainians to participate in social protest actions

ESC or click to close

Press releases and reports

The readiness of the Ukrainians to participate in social protest actions

Prepared by Myroslava Obodovska

In a period of December 2-12 of 2016, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) has conducted a public opinion poll “Omnibus”. Data were collected from 2040 respondents living in 110 settlements (PSU) in all regions of Ukraine (except for AR of Crimea) with the method of personal interviewing. The sample was stochastic and is representative of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

In Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (regions) survey was conducted only in the territories that are controlled by the Ukrainian government. In this survey, the sample covered only the controlled part of Donbas in the same proportion as it was registered for Donbas voters in the last parliamentary elections (October 2014) according to the data of CEC.

Within the recent public opinion research "Omnibus" the issue that concerned the protest intentions of the Ukrainians. According to the survey, 45.6% of the respondents are not willing to participate in any mass protest actions, 5.9% - could not give a definite answer, 48.5% are ready to take part in some protests.

Pic.1

Among those willing to participate in certain protests, most of the respondents are ready to participate in the election campaign[1] (35.4%), collecting signatures under the collective appeals (claims, appeals) and in sanctioned rallies and demonstrations (11.9%). The least popular forms of protest are the creation of armed groups that are independent of the government (0.7%), seizure of buildings (0.9%). This indicates that when the Ukrainians are ready to take part in the protest, they prefer to do it peacefully.

Graph 1

[1] Whether the participation in the elections is a form of social protest is a debatable question: no doubts, some of those who chose this answer consider the elections as an opportunity to express their protest power, but some of those who vote are loyal to the government.

The Ukrainians` willingness to participate in social protests increased comparing to the previous year. While in December 2014 about 43% of citizens expressed their willingness to participate in the protests, in December 2016 this percentage was about 49%.

Graph 2

But this growth is due, above all, to a decrease in the number of people who are not willing to participate in any events (in December 2015 there were 49% of such people, in December 2016 there were 46%) and the increase in the number of those who are going to participate in the election campaign (was 29%, became 35%). As for the main form of protest, the Diagram 4 (and Table 1 in the appendix) shows that the number of those ready to participate declined slightly (the largest decrease occurred for sanctioned rallies and demonstrations - from 16% to 12%).

People of all ages (people older than 70 years – to a lesser extent) both men and women are highly ready to participate in protests. According to the data, we can assume that the willingness to participate in the protests actually increases with the increase of the level of education. The most active expression of oneself in protests refers to people with incomplete higher education.

By region, the highest willingness to participate in the protests show the residents of Eastern Ukraine (57.2%). They are followed by residents of Southern Ukraine (50%), Western Ukraine (49.2%) and the lowest percentage of readiness to participate in the protests show the residents of the Central region of Ukraine (43.5%).

Graph 4

* Western macroregion: Volynska, Zakarpatska, Ivano-Frankivska, Lvivska, Rivnenska, Ternopilska, Khmelnytska, Chernivets`ka oblasts (regions); Central macroregion:Kyivcity, Kyivs`ka, Vinnytska, Zhytomyrska, Kirovohradska, Poltavska, Sumska, Cherkaska, Chernihivska oblasts; South macroregion:Dnipropetrovska, Zaporizka, Mykolaivska, Odeska, Khersonskaoblasts; Eastern macroregion: Kharkivska oblast, only regions controlled by Ukraine in Donetska and Luhanska oblasts.

Addition

Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question “In which of the social protest actions would you personally participate? Mark, please, all options that suit you”

(alternatives are situated in decreasing order of mention frequency,2016)

	2015, December	2016, December
Participation in the election campaign	29.0%	35.4%
Collecting signatures under the collective appeals (claims, appeals)	16.5%	15.5%
Sanctioned rallies and demonstrations	15.8%	11.9%
Participation in strikes	5.8%	3.4%
Picketing of state institutions	4.0%	2.3%
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations	3.0%	2.4%
Boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administration authorities)	2.6%	2.9%
Strike threat	2.3%	2.8%
Creation of armed forces that are independent of the government	1.2%	0.7%
Hunger strikes	0.9%	1.2%
Seizure of buildings	0.7%	0.9%
Other	0.4%	0.4%

Table2. Willingness to participate in social protest, distribution by gender

	male	female
Participation in the election campaign	36.5%	34.5%
Collecting signatures under the collective appeals (claims, appeals)	16.1%	15.0%
Sanctioned rallies and demonstrations	14.4%	9.8%
Strike threat	3.9%	1.8%
Boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administration authorities)	4.0%	2.0%
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations	3.1%	1.8%
Participation in strikes	3.5%	3.3%
Hunger strikes	1.7%	,8%
Picketing of state institutions	3.4%	1.5%
Seizure of buildings	1.5%	,4%
Creation of armed forces that are independent of the government	1.2%	,3%
Other	,5%	,2%
I am not ready to participate in any mass protest actions	41.2%	49.3%
Difficult to say	4.8%	4.1%
Denial from response	2.0%	1.0%

Table 3. Willingness to participate in social protest, distribution by age

	18-29	30-39	40-49	50-59	60-69	70 +
Participation in the election campaign	34.9%	33.4%	35.6%	36.3%	40.3%	33.0%
Collecting signatures under the collective appeals (claims, appeals)	15.2%	15.6%	17.8%	16.0%	17.6%	10.3%
Sanctioned rallies and demonstrations	13.9%	9.5%	14.4%	14.7%	11.0%	6.0%
Strike threat	3.0%	2.9%	3.7%	3.1%	2.0%	1.3%
Boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administration authorities)	5.0%	3.5%	3.0%	1.4%	3.1%	,3%
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations	2.5%	2.1%	3.2%	2.9%	1.3%	1.7%
Participation in strikes	3.3%	2.0%	6.2%	4.8%	2.9%	,7%
Hunger strikes	,9%	3.0%	,7%	,9%	,9%	,7%
Picketing of state institutions	4.2%	3.0%	2.0%	1.9%	1.3%	,7%
Seizure of buildings	,6%	2.1%	,4%	1.2%	,2%	,3%
Creation of armed forces that are independent of the government	,0%	1.0%	,9%	1.4%	,2%	,7%
Other	,6%	,0%	,5%	,2%	,7%	,3%
I am not ready to participate in any mass protest actions	42.1%	45.6%	43.2%	44.2%	45.1%	56.2%
Diffcult to say	5.3%	5.1%	2.9%	4.8%	3.7%	4.4%
Denial from response	1.6%	2.0%	1.5%	1.6%	1.0%	1.1%

Table 4. Willingness to participate in social protest, distribution by level of education

	Elementary (less than 7 grades)	Unfinished secondary (up to 10 grades)	Trade schools, vocational schools after 7-8 grades	Finished secondary(10-11 grades)	Vocational school after classes 10-11	Specialized secondary education (college, etc.)	Unfinished higher (3 courses or more)	Higher
Participation in the election campaign	29.0%	16.5%	20.2%	33.5%	30.6%	39.8%	37.0%	35.9%
Collecting signatures under the collective appeals (claims, appeals)	4.7%	2.9%	6.8%	13.6%	16.2%	17.0%	19.6%	16.3%
Sanctioned rallies and demonstrations	7.3%	2.9%	13.1%	9.8%	13.5%	12.2%	16.2%	12.5%
Strike threat	,0%	2.8%	,0%	2.4%	4.3%	2.6%	6.1%	2.4%
Boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administration authorities)	,0%	,0%	9.6%	2.4%	4.8%	2.3%	4.3%	2.9%
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations	2.5%	,0%	,0%	1.0%	5.1%	2.6%	,0%	2.7%
Participation in strikes	2.5%	2.8%	2.5%	2.8%	5.6%	4.3%	2.4%	2.2%
Hunger strikes	2.5%	,0%	,0%	,5%	,0%	1.3%	2.5%	2.0%
Picketing of state institutions	2.5%	1.0%	,0%	1.9%	2.6%	1.9%	3.3%	3.2%
Seizure of buildings	2.5%	1.0%	,0%	,3%	,0%	,4%	2.0%	1.8%
Creation of armed forces that are independent of the government	2.5%	1.0%	,0%	,4%	1.5%	,1%	,8%	1.3%
Other	,0%	,0%	,0%	,0%	1.4%	,1%	,0%	,7%
I am not ready to participate in any mass protest actions	65.9%	76.5%	55.1%	51.9%	43.8%	41.8%	34.6%	44.4%
Diffcult to say	,0%	,0%	11.4%	2.6%	5.7%	4.9%	4.4%	4.7%
Denial from response	,0%	3.2%	,0%	1.2%	1.4%	1.6%	2.2%	1.5%

Table5. Willingness to participate in social protest, distribution by macro-regions

	Western	Central	South	Eastern
Participation in the election campaign	27.2%	29.4%	44.2%	51.4%
Collecting signatures under the collective appeals (claims, appeals)	19.2%	17.3%	6.3%	20.6%
Sanctioned rallies and demonstrations	21.0%	10.1%	5.7%	9.5%
Strike threat	5.7%	2.8%	,0%	1.8%
Boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administration authorities)	6.2%	2.7%	,3%	1.6%
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations	3.5%	3.8%	,2%	,3%
Participation in strikes	7.2%	3.0%	1.2%	,8%
Hunger strikes	1.2%	2.4%	,2%	,2%
Picketing of state institutions	5.6%	2.2%	,1%	,3%
Seizure of buildings	,9%	1.8%	,0%	,0%
Creation of armed forces that are independent of the government	1.8%	,7%	,0%	,0%
Other	,8%	,3%	,1%	,0%
I am not ready to participate in any mass protest actions	45.3%	49.2%	46.,4%	35.2%
DIFFICULT TO SAY	3.1%	5.9%	3.4%	5.4%
DENIAL FROM RESPONSE	2.4%	1.4%	,2%	2.2%