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Social and political attitudes of the residents of Ukraine: April 2018

On April 5-19, 2018, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion poll by the client`s request. Data were collected from 2004 respondents living in 110 settlements in all oblasts of Ukraine (except for the AR of Crimea) with the method of personal interviewing. The sample was stochastic, 4-staged, and it is representative of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

In Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts survey was conducted only in the territories that are controlled by the Ukrainian government.

The statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and for a design effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 3.3% — for indexes close to 50%, 2.8% — for indexes close to 25%, 2.0% — for indexes close to 10%, 1.4% — for indexes close to 5%.

           

Major results:

  • 45.9% of the Ukrainians believe that Ukraine should go in the integrational direction of joining the European Union. It is believed that Ukraine should choose the direction of joining the Customs Union - 8.9%. Another 31.6% of the Ukrainians believe that Ukraine should focus on joining neither the EU nor the Customs Union.

  • 41.4% of the population support the accession to NATO, and 37.8% do not support it.

  • 75.3% of the Ukrainians believe that Ukraine's leadership is taking the country in the wrong direction, 10.4% believe that the country is moving in the right direction.

  • Among 27 public and political figures who were present in the questionnaire, V. Zelenskyi received the best attitude from the Ukrainian population (40% are positively disposed to him, 41% has neutral attitude, 11% - negative) and S. Vakarchuk (positive 38% , neutral - 42%, negative - 12%). Also A. Hrytsenko has positive attitude (positive - 24%, neutral - 37%, negatively - 21%). The other figures in the list have a positive attitude from no more than 17% of the respondents and the balance ratio (in most cases) is negative.

  •  If the election of the President of Ukraine took place in mid-April 2018, and S. Vakarchuk and V. Zelensky were on the list of candidates, then in the first round more votes than the other candidates (among the candidates on the list that was sent to the respondent) would receive Yulia Tymoshenko (16.1% among those who are going to vote and determined). Next in the rating are: A. Gritsenko (12.7%), O. Lyashko (12.2%), P. Poroshenko (12.2%), V. Zelensky (10.8%) and S. Vakarchuk (9.6 %) The difference in the support of these (except for Y. Tymoshenko) candidates is almost within the limits of error, that is, they rather "share" the second place. Also, Y. Boyko would receive 8.8%, V. Rabinovich - 8.6%.

  • If the parliamentary elections were held in mid-April 2018, with the participation of the parties "Block of S. Vakarchuk" and "Sluga narodu", then representatives of eight political forces would enter the Verkhovna Rada. Greater support than other parties would receive All-Ukrainian union “Batkivshchyna” (14.4% among those who are going to vote and determined). The next in the rating are parties "Hromadianska pozytsiia" (11.5%), the Radical Party (11.4%), the “Block of Petra Poroshenka” (9.9%), "Za jyttia" (9.3%), “Oppozytsiynyi block” (9.3%), "Block of S. Vakarchuk" (8.6%), and "Sluga narodu" (8.4%). The difference in the support of these (except for the "Batkivshchyna") parties are practically within the limits of error, that is, they would rather "share" the second place.

 

Foreign policy orientations of the population of Ukraine

  • The answers to the question "What kind of integrational direction should Ukraine take?" respondents answered as follows:
  • 45.9% chose the option “Accession the European Union”,
  • 8.9% – “Accession the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan”,
  • 31.6% – “Joining neither the European Union nor the Customs Union”,
  • 12.9% – undetermined yet,
  • 0.7% – denial from answering.
  • 41.4% of the Ukrainians rather support or fully support joining NATO. Then 37.8% rather or fully do not support, 20% are undecided, 0.9% refused from answering the question. 

Assessment of the actions of the country's leadership and top issues

  • 75.3% of the Ukrainians believe that Ukraine`s government leads the country in rather a wrong direction. Then 10.4% believe that things a going in rather a right direction, 14% are undecided on this matter, 0.3% refused to answer the question.
  • According to Ukrainians, the top priority problems from the proposed list are:
  • Ending the war in the East – 61.7% consider this problem to be in the top 3,
  • Creating job places – 33.5%,
  • Raising salaries and pensions – 31.9%,
  • Overcoming the corruption – 29%,
  • Reduced tariffs for the utilities – 19.1%.

 

Attitude to public and political figures

In the course of the interview, respondents were provided with a list of 27 public-political leaders. Respondents answered, whether they know/do not know this person and if they know the person, how they relate to him/her: positively, neutrally, negatively. Below there are the results sorted by the proportion of those who are positively disposed towards the figure among all respondents.

 

100% in a row Positive Neutral Negative Denial Do not know him/her Balance*
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 40.0 41.3 11.0 1.8 5.8 29.0
Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 37.6 41.5 12.3 2.1 6.5 25.4
Anatolii Hrytsenko 24.0 37.0 20.6 1.8 16.6 3.4
Yulia Tymoshenko 16.7 23.8 55.9 2.3 1.3 -39.2
Oleh Liashko 16.1 20.3 59.7 1.8 2.1 -43.7
Yurii Boiko 14.7 23.0 44.4 1.4 16.5 -29.6
Vadym Rabinovych 13.6 24.5 47.2 1.9 12.8 -33.6
Andrii Sadovyi 13.3 37.3 31.8 1.8 15.8 -18.5
Volodymyr Hroisman 12.7 25.4 56.2 3.2 2.5 -43.5
Valentyn Nalyvaichenko 11.5 23.5 17.6 1.4 46.0 -6.1
Dmetro Yarosh 10.9 25.2 34.9 2.6 26.4 -24.0
Iegor Sobolev 10.7 17.9 10.8 0.6 60.0 -0.2
Petro Poroshenko 10.3 13.7 70.8 3.8 1.3 -60.5
Mustafa Naiem 9.0 25.0 16.3 2.2 47.5 -7.3
Yurii Lutsenko 6.1 20.8 61.9 2.3 8.9 -55.8
Andrii Biletskyi 6.0 15.1 10.6 1.0 67.3 -4.6
Victor Chumak 5.2 12.5 4.9 0.4 76.9 0.3
Oleksandr Turchynov 4.9 21.9 63.0 2.6 7.6 -58.1
Serhii Leshchenko 4.9 12.6 11.9 1.2 69.4 -7.0
Nazar Kholodnytskyi 4.5 12.0 9.0 1.5 73.0 -4.5
Serhii Taruta 4.1 23.0 17.2 1.1 54.7 -13.1
Artem Sytnyk 2.8 12.7 6.7 1.1 76.8 -3.9
Svitlana Zalishchuk 2.2 7.5 4.8 0.3 85.3 -2.6
Vitalii Skotsyk 1.9 7.6 3.9 0.8 85.9 -2.0
Andrii Koboliev 1.7 5.3 5.4 0.2 87.3 -3.7
Volodymyr Omelian 1.3 4.9 2.9 0.1 90.8 -1.6
Maksym Nefiodov 0.9 4.3 2.5 0.1 92.2 -1.5

* The difference between the proportion of those who have a positive attitude and the proportion of those have a negative attitude.

 

Electoral moods of the population on the election of the President of Ukraine in the first round

Preliminary comments: Until the registration of parties and candidates is over, any list of applicants has the right to exist; very often political forces check the electoral capabilities of certain candidates, even if they have not expressed their plans for participation in elections yet. Meanwhile, the rating of one or another candidate depends on how many candidates from the same electoral field are on the list, the more they are, the less is the rating of each of the candidates. The following ratings (both presidential and party) include, inter alia, V. Zelensky, S. Vakarchuk and their possible political forces. Therefore, now, before the registration of candidates/party lists, all received rating data are conditional and depends on the list that is proposed to the respondents.

Also, when interpreting the results, it is necessary to take into account the statistical error of the sample. If the difference between the candidates/parties is less than the statistical error, then it is not possible to give a statistically substantiated answer who of them has the highest support.

Another important aspect for the correct interpretation is the fact that all parties/candidates currently have a rather low level of support. The rating of individual parties/politicians does not exceed 8-8.5% of the total adult population of Ukraine, and at the same time, the separation from the leading party/candidate to the second place is less than 2%. Therefore, in case of activation of the election campaign and taking into account the high dynamism of the situation in the country, the electoral mood may change significantly.

If the elections of the President of Ukraine had been held in mid-April, then out of all citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and above:

  •  8% would have voted for Yulia Tymoshenko,
  •  6.3% – for Anatolii Hrytsenko,
  •  6.1% – for Oleh Liashko,
  •  6% – for Petro Poroshenko,
  •  5.4% – for Volodymyr Zelenskyi,
  •  4.8% – for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk,
  •  4.4% – for Vadym Rabinovych,
  •  4.3% – for Yurii Boiko,
  •  1.7% – for Andrii Sadovyi,
  •  1.4% – for Dmytro Yarosh,
  •  0.9% – for Victor Chumak,
  •  0.4% – for Andrii Biletskyi,
  •  5.7% – would have crossed out all the candidates, spoilt the ballot,
  • 14% – decided not to participate in the voting,
  • 29.3% – have not decided whom to vote for,
  • 1.4% – refused from answering the question.

Out of these candidates, considering the statistical error, Yulia Tymoshenko has more than any other. The next five candidates (from A. Hrytsenko to S. Vakarchuk) have the support that differs practically within the limits of error, that is, these candidates rather "share" the second place and they can all qualify for the second round.

Calculating the percentages in relation to those who decided with the choice (actually these are the closest indexes to the possible outcomes of the elections if it had been held in mid-April), there will be the following results:

  • 16.1% would have voted for Yulia Tymoshenko,
  • 12.7% – for Anatolii Hrytsenko,
  • 12.2% – for Oleh Liashko,
  • 12.2% – for Petro Poroshenko,
  • 10.8% – for Volodymyr Zelenskyi,
  •  9.6% – for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk,
  •  8.8% – for Vadym Rabinovych,
  •  8.6% – for Yurii Boiko,
  •  3.3% – for Andrii Sadovyi,
  •  2.9% – for Dmytro Yarosh,
  •  1.9% – for Victor Chumak,
  •  0.9% – for Andrii Biletskyi.

Respondents were also asked the following questions: "Imagine, please, that you can vote for several candidates. Please tell me which candidates, other than ... [FIRST CHOICE], could you also vote for?" About those candidates who were not the first or additional (second) option the question "Do you, in general, consider for yourself a possibility to vote for ... or you will not vote for him/her in any case ...?" was asked. Combining the results of all three questions, one can estimate the electoral potential of the candidates (table below).

When assessing the potential as a total support for the first/second choice, Yulia Tymoshenko (11.2%) and A. Hrytsenko (10.3%) have the most significant potential. If we compare the maximum potential (the sum of the first/second choice and those who can possibly vote for him/her), then the greatest potential will belong to S.Vakarchuk (26%), V.Zelenskyi (25%), and A.Hrytsenko (24.8%).

 

100% in a row First choice Second choice Not considered as the first/second choice, but is a possible option Strongly reject the opportunity to vote for him/her Difficult to say Denial
Yulia Tymoshenko 8 3.2 10.4 60.9 16.1 1.4
Anatolii Hrytsenko 6.3 4 14.6 46.1 27.4 1.6
Oleh Liashko 6.1 3 8.6 67.3 13.5 1.5
Petro Poroshenko 6 2 4 74.3 12 1.7
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 5.4 3.5 16.1 51.8 21.9 1.3
Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 4.8 3.8 17.3 49 23.7 1.5
Vadym Rabinovych 4.4 3.2 7.7 63.9 19.3 1.5
Yurii Boiko 4.3 2.4 9.7 60.1 21.9 1.6
Andrii Sadovyi 1.7 3.4 10.3 57.2 25.2 2.2
Dmytro Yarosh 1.4 2 5.8 69.8 19.4 1.5
Vcitor Chumak 0.9 1 5.1 54.1 36.8 2.1
Andrii Biletskyi 0.4 0.7 7.3 52.7 37.2 1.6

 

Electoral moods of the population on the elections of the President of Ukraine in the second round

During the poll, respondents were offered 22 pairs of the possible participants in the second round of the presidential elections. There are the results in the table below. For each pair, the candidate with the support that is above the statistical error is marked (if none of the candidates is marked, then the difference in their support is within the statistical error). That is, in this pair, the marked candidate would have won more votes as of mid-April.

 

Candidate 1 % % Candidate 2 Will spoil the ballot Undecided Denial Not going to vote
Petro Poroshenko 11.8 22.9 Yulia Tymoshenko 25.4 16.0 2.0 21.9
Oleh Liashko 17.0 12.9 Petro Poroshenko 27.6 17.0 2.4 23.2
Anatolii Hrytsenko 27.5 11.3 Petro Poroshenko 19.7 18.8 2.5 20.3
Yurii Boiko 19.2 14.7 Petro Poroshenko 22.3 19.5 2.8 21.4
Petro Poroshenko 14.6 19.5 Vadym Rabinovych 23.6 18.1 2.6 21.6
Oleh Liashko 11.9 21.3 Yulia Tymoshenko 24.0 18.4 2.2 22.1
Anatolii Hrytsenko 22.0 18.5 Yulia Tymoshenko 18.6 19.4 2.1 19.4
Yurii Boiko 13.6 22.1 Yulia Tymoshenko 20.6 20.1 2.7 20.8
Yulia Tymoshenko 22.1 15.1 Vadym Rabinovych 21.8 18.6 2.1 20.3
Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 28.6 10.9 Petro Poroshenko 21.9 17.5 2.3 18.8
Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 23.5 19.8 Yulia Tymoshenko 18.1 18.5 2.1 17.9
Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 27.1 13.7 Oleh Liashko 20.0 18.4 2.0 18.9
Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 20.8 22.5 Anatolii Hrytsenko 17.2 20.1 2.3 17.2
Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 29.0 14.8 Yurii Boiko 16.5 19.9 2.4 17.4
Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 28.6 15.2 Vadym Rabinovych 17.1 19.9 2.1 17.0
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 27.9 13.0 Petro Poroshenko 19.8 18.1 2.4 18.8
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 24.0 20.3 Yulia Tymoshenko 17.7 18.6 2.4 17.0
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 26.5 13.5 Oleh Liashko 19.8 19.0 2.7 18.5
Anatolii Hrytsenko 24.2 20.6 Volodymyr Zelenskyi 15.2 20.4 2.3 17.3
Yurii Boiko 14.7 26.1 Volodymyr Zelenskyi 17.7 21.2 2.1 18.0
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 26.4 15.3 Vadym Rabinovych 18.1 20.7 1.9 17.6
Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 20.8 17.5 Volodymyr Zelenskyi 18.1 22.8 2.0 18.7

 

Electoral moods of the population on the elections to the Verkhovna Rada

If the elections to the Verkhovna Rada had been held in mid-April, then out of all citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and above:

  •  8.5%  would have voted for the “All-Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna”,
  •  6.8% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsiia”,
  •  6.7% – for the Radical party of Oleh Liashko,
  •  5.8% – for the party “Block Petra Poroshenka”,
  •  5.5% – for the party “Za jyttia”,
  •  5.5% – for the party “Opozytsiynyi block”,
  •  5.1% – for the party “Block Sviatoslava Vakarchuka”,
  •  5% – for the party “Sluga narodu”,
  •  2.1% – for the party “Obiednannia Samopomich”,
  •  1.4% – for the party “All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda”,
  •  1.4% – for the Agrarian party,
  •  1% – for the party “Rukh novykh syl”,
  • for other parties in total -  4.3%,
  •  4.1% – would have crossed out all the parties, spoilt the ballot,
  • 12.3% – had decided not to vote,
  • 23.1% – have not decided whom to vote for,
  • 1.3% – refused to answer the question.

Of these parties, taking into account the statistical error, all-Ukrainian union “Batkivshchyna” has more than any other. The following seven parties have the support that differs practically within the limits of the error, that is, these political parties are more likely to "share" the second place. 

Calculating the percentages in relation to those who decided with the choice (actually these are the closest indexes to the possible outcomes of the elections if it had been held in mid-April), there will be the following results:

  • 14.4% would have voted for the “All-Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna”,
  • 11.5% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsiia”,
  • 11.4% – for the Radical party of Oleh Liashko,
  •  9.9% – for the party “Block Petra Poroshenka”,
  •  9.3% – for the party “Za jyttia”,
  •  9.3% – for the party “Opozytsiynyi block”,
  •  8.6% – for the party “Block Sviatoslava Vakarchuka”,
  •  8.4% – for the party “Sluga narodu”,
  •  3.6% – for the party “Obiednannia Samopomich”,
  •  2.4% – for the party “All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda”,
  •  2.4% – for the Agrarian party,
  •  1.7% – for the party “Rukh novykh syl”,
  •  for other in total - 7.3%.

Respondents were also asked the following questions: "Imagine, please, that you can vote for several parties. Please tell me which parties, other than ... [FIRST CHOICE], could you also vote for?" About those parties which were not the first or additional (second) option the question "Do you, in general, consider for yourself a possibility to vote for ... or you will not vote for it in any case ...?" was asked. Combining the results of all three questions, one can estimate the electoral potential of the candidates (table below).

When assessing the potential as a total support for the first/second choice, all-Ukrainian union “Batkivshchyna” (12.7%) and “Hromadianska pozytsiia” (11.3%) have the most significant potential. If we compare the maximum potential (the sum of the first/second choice and those who can possibly vote for it), then the greatest potential will belong to “Block Sviatoslava Vakarchuka” (27.6%), “Hromadianska pozytsiia” (27.4%), and “Sluga narodu” (26.5%).

 

100% in a row First choice Second choice Not considered as the first/second choice, but is a possible option Strongly reject the opportunity to vote for it Difficult to say Denial
Party AU “Batkivshchyna” (Y.Tymoshenko) 8.5 4.2 11.6 58.7 15.5 1.4
Party “Hromadianska pozytsia” (A.Hrytsenko) 6.8 4.4 16.2 50.1 20.5 2
Radical party of Oleh Liashko 6.7 3.2 8.2 65.6 14.5 1.9
Part “Block Petra Poroshenka “Solidarnist” 5.8 1.9 5.4 73.6 11.7 1.5
Party “Za jyttia” (V.Rabinovych, Y.Muraiev) 5.5 4.1 9.9 58.9 19.8 1.8
Party “Opozytsiinyi block” (Y.Boiko, B.Kolesnikov, Y.Vilkul) 5.5 3.7 9.9 61.9 17.3 1.7
Party “Block Sviatoslava Vakarchuka” 5.1 5.4 17.1 48.8 22.2 1.4
Party “Sluha narodu” (V.Zelenskyi) 5 5 16.5 50.5 21.2 1.8
Party “Obiednannia “Samopomich” (A.Sadovyi) 2.1 3.5 12.8 57.2 22.2 2.2
Agrarian party of Ukraine (V.Skotsyk) 1.4 1 12.1 53.9 30.3 1.2
Party AU “Svoboda” (O.Tiahnybok) 1.4 2.5 9.8 69 15.6 1.7
Party “Rukh novykh syl” (M.Saakashvili) 1 1.5 6.3 72.6 16.9 1.7
Party “Narodnyi front” (A.Yatseniuk, O.Turchynov, A.Parubii) 0.8 1 5.8 78.3 12.4 1.6
Party “Ukrainske obiednannia patriotiv “UKROP” (T.Batenko, I.Palytsia, B.Filatov) 0.8 1 10.1 64.5 22.2 1.4
Party “NASH KRAI” (O.Mazurchak, A.Kisse, S.Kaltsev, Y.Hranaturov) 0.7 0.4 6.3 64.7 26.1 1.9
Party “Natsionalnyi korpus” (A.Biletskyi) 0.5 0.6 6.5 63.2 27.1 2
Party “Vidrodxhennia” (V.Bondar, G.Kernes, V.Khomutynnik) 0.4 1.2 6.4 68.3 22.1 1.5
Socialist party (S.Kaplin) 0.4 1.1 9.2 61.1 26.4 1.7
Party “Osnova” (S.Taruta) 0 0.4 5.5 63.2 29 2

 

Separately, you can download a full report, which, among other things, contains a complete questionnaire (a complete list, the order, and the formulations of all questions), along with the distribution of answers to all questions at the level of Ukraine as a whole and at the level 5 macroregions.

Full report (In Ukrainian)

Presentation (In Ukrainian)


7.5.2018
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