Press release by Anton Hrushetskyi

On June 7-21, 2018, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion poll. Data were collected from 2005 respondents living in 110 settlements in all oblasts of Ukraine (except for the AR of Crimea) with the method of personal interviewing. The sample was stochastic, 4-staged, and it is representative of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

In Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts survey was conducted only in the territories that are controlled by the Ukrainian government.

The statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and for a design effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 3.3% — for indexes close to 50%, 2.8% — for indexes close to 25%, 2.0% — for indexes close to 10%, 1.4% — for indexes close to 5%.

Major results:

• 83.7% of the Ukrainians do not like the direction in which Ukraine is moving, 11.2% are satisfied with it.

• 47.3% of the Ukrainians believe that Ukraine should go the direction of integration with the European Union. With 11.9% of the population, it is believed that Ukraine should choose the direction of joining the Customs Union. Another 30.1% of the Ukrainians believe that Ukraine should neither focus on joining the EU nor the Customs Union.

• In the referendum on joining NATO, 41.1% of all Ukrainians would vote “for”, 30.7% - "against".

• If the parliamentary elections had been held in mid-June 2018 and the political forces of S. Vakarchuk / V. Zelenskyi were not involved, more support than other parties would have been obtained by the all-Ukrainian union “Batkivshchyna” (21.6% among those who are going to vote and determined). The following parties are “Hromadianska pozytsiia” (15.9%), “Opozytsiynyi block” (11.4%), the Radical Party (11.1%), “Za jyttia” (10.5%), “Block Petra Poroshenka" (7.9%), all-Ukrainian union “Svoboda”(4.6%), “Samopomich” (4.6%).

• If the presidential elections had been held in mid-June 2018 and S. Vakarchuk and V. Zelenskyi had not participated, more support than other candidates (among those who were on the list provided to the respondent) would have been obtained by Yulia Tymoshenko (22.8% among those who are going to vote and determined). She is followed by Anatolii Hrytsenko (16%), Oleh Liashko (13.2%), Yurii Boiko (10.6%), Petro Poroshenko (10.5%), Volodymyr Rabinovych (8.4%).

• If the presidential elections had been held in mid-June 2018 and S. Vakarchuk and V. Zelenskyi had been among the candidates, then in the first tour, more support than other candidates (among those who were on the list provided to the respondent) would have been obtained by Yulia Tymoshenko (19.5% among those who are going to vote and determined). She is followed by Anatolii Hrytsenko (12.6%), Oleh Liashko (10.7%), Yurii Boiko (10.2%), Petro Poroshenko (8.5%), Volodymyr Rabinovych (7.4%), Sviatoslav Vakarchuk (7.4%).

Satisfaction with the direction of the country's development

• 83.7% of the respondents to the questions “Are you personally satisfied or not satisfied with the direction of foreign policy that Ukraine takes?” answered that they were rather or fully dissatisfied, 11.2% answered that they were satisfied. Also, 4.9% of the respondents have not decided with their opinion yet, 0.2% refused to answer.

Foreign policy orientations of the population of Ukraine

• To the question “Which direction of foreign policy should Ukraine take?” the answers of respondents distributed as follows:
  • 47.3% chose the option to “join the European Union”,
  • 11.9% – «join the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia»,
  • 30.1% – «join neither the European Union nor the Customs Union»,
  • 10.1% – are undecided,
  • 0.6% – refused to answer.
• 41.1% of the Ukrainians would vote “for” joining NATO on the referendum, 30.7% would vote “against”, 12.2% would not participate. Also, 15.7% of the respondents are undecided on this matter, 0.3% refused to answer.

Electoral moods of the population regarding the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on party lists and elections of the President of Ukraine in the first round 

Preliminary comments: Commentary of Anton Hrushetskyi, KIIS Deputy Head. 

Until the registration of parties and candidates is over, any list of applicants has the right to exist; very often political forces check the electoral capabilities of certain candidates, even if they have not expressed their plans for participation in elections yet. Meanwhile, the rating of one or another candidate depends on how many candidates from the same electoral field are on the list, the more they are, the less is the rating of each of the candidates. Therefore, now, before the registration of candidates/party lists, all received rating data are conditional and depends on the list that is proposed to the respondents.

In this survey respondents were consistently offered two lists of parties and candidates for the post of the President. Initially, the list was offered to the respondents without S.Vakarchuk/V.Zelenskyi and their political forces (although the respondents had the right to "write down" them in a "different answer" field, which some respondents did), then they were provided with a list that included these candidates. On the one hand, it provides more information for a better understanding of current realities. On the other hand, it should be borne in mind that in the case of a list that is shown to the respondent in the second turn (with the inclusion of S.Vakarchuk / V.Zelenskyi), most likely, there is an "effect of the order". It manifests itself in the attempt of some respondents to look "consistent" in their orientations. Accordingly, in the case of the second list some respondents would have voted for one of the "new" candidates/parties, but in order to appear "consistent", they could have called the same choice as in the case of the first list. It should also be borne in mind that in order to avoid displacement respondents were not informed directly how different the second list was. Therefore, some less attentive respondents simply might not notice that S.Vakarchuk / V.Zelenskyi appeared on the lists (for example, the second party list included as many as 19 political forces). Moreover, the attention decreases when there was already the first list on which the respondent gave the answer. Thus, the following ratings, with the inclusion of S.Vakarchuk / V.Zelenskyi in the lists, most likely, slightly underestimate their support.

Also, when interpreting the results, it is necessary to take into account the statistical error of the sample. If the difference between the candidates/parties is less than the statistical error, then it is not possible to give a statistically substantiated answer who of them has the highest support.

Another important aspect of the correct interpretation is the fact that all parties/candidates currently have a rather low level of support. The rating of individual parties/politicians does not exceed 11.5% of the total adult population of Ukraine, and at the same time, the separation from the leading party/candidate to the second place is less than 3.5%. Therefore, in case of activation of the election campaigns and taking into account the high dynamism of the situation in the country, the electoral moods may change significantly.

Electoral moods of the population on the elections to the Verkhovna Rada

If the elections to the Verkhovna Rada had been held in mid-June and S.Vakarchuk/V.Zelenskyi had not been on the list, then out of all citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and above:

•  11.5%  would have voted for the “All-Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna”,
•  8.4% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsiia”,
•  6% – for the party “Opozytsiynyi block”,
•  5.9% – for the Radical party of Oleh Liashko,
•  5.6% – for the party “Za jyttia”,
•  4.2% – for the party “Block Petra Poroshenka”,
•  2.5% – for the party “All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda”,
•  2.4% – for the party “Obiednannia Samopomich”,
•  1% – for the Agrarian party,
•  for other parties in total -  5.5%,
•  6.6% – would have crossed out all the parties, spoilt the ballot,
• 10.6% – had decided not to vote,
• 28.8% – have not decided whom to vote for,
• 1.2% – refused to answer the question.

Of these parties, taking into account the statistical error, all-Ukrainian union “Batkivshchyna” has more votes than any other party. Party “Hromadianska pozytsiia” is on the second place (that is considering the statistical error, the party scores lower than AU “Batkivshchyna” but higher than other parties). The following three parties (“Opozytsiynyi block”, Radical party, “Za jyttia”) have the support that differs practically within the limits of the error, that is, these political parties are more likely to "share" the third place. The list is closed by “Block Petra Porosenka”.

Calculating the percentages in the relation to those who decided with the choice (actually, these are the closest indexes to the possible outcomes of the elections if it had been held in mid-June), there will be the following results:

• 21.6%  would have voted for the “All-Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna”,
• 15.9% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsiia”,
• 11.4% – for the party “Opozytsiynyi block”,
•  11.1% – for the Radical party of Oleh Liashko,
•  10.5% – for the party “Za jyttia”,
•  7.9% – for the party “Block Petra Poroshenka”,
•  4.6% – for the party “All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda”,
•  4.6% – for the party “Obiednannia Samopomich”,
•  1.9% – for the Agrarian party,
•  for other parties in total -  10.3%. 

Respondents were also asked the following questions: "Imagine, please, that you can vote for several parties. Please tell me which parties, other than ... [FIRST CHOICE], could you also vote for?" and “Which one of them would you never vote for?”. Below is a table where for each party there are following data: % of all respondents for whom the party is the first choice; % of all respondents who consider this party as a possible "second" option; % of all respondents who will not vote for the party under any circumstances (anti-rating).

If the elections to the Verkhovna Rada had been held in mid-June and S.Vakarchuk/V.Zelenskyi had been on the list, then out of all citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and above:

• 10.2%  would have voted for the “All-Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna”,
• 7.5% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsiia”,
• 5.5% – for the party “Opozytsiynyi block”,
• 5.4% - for the party “Za jyttia”,
• 5.1% – for the Radical party of Oleh Liashko,
• 3.8% – for the party “Block Petra Poroshenka”,
• 3.3% – for the party “Block Sviatoslava Vakarchuka”,
• 2.7% – for the party “Sluha narodu”,
• 2% – for the party “All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda”,
• 1.9% – for the party “Obiednannia Samopomich”,
• 1% – for the Agrarian party,
• for other parties in total -  4%,
• 6.2% – would have crossed out all the parties, spoilt the ballot,
• 9.9% – had decided not to vote,
• 29.3% – have not decided whom to vote for,
• 2.1% – refused to answer the question.

Calculating the percentages in the relation to those who decided with the choice (actually, these are the closest indexes to the possible outcomes of the elections if it had been held in mid-June), there will be the following results:

• 19.5%  would have voted for the “All-Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna”,
• 14.4% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsiia”,
• 10.5% – for the party “Opozytsiynyi block”,
• 10.3% – for the party “Za jyttia”,
• 9.7% – for the Radical party of Oleh Liashko,
• 7.3% – for the party “Block Petra Poroshenka”,
• 6.2% – for the party “Block Sviatoslava Vakarchuka”,
• 5.2% – for the party “Sluha narodu”,
• 3.8% – for the party “All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda”,
• 3.5% – for the party “Obiednannia Samopomich”,
• 1.9% – for the Agrarian party,
• for other parties in total -  7.7%,

Electoral moods of the population on the election of the President of Ukraine in the first round

If the elections of the President of Ukraine had been held in mid-June and S.Vakarchuk/V.Zelenskyi had not been on the list, then out of all citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and above:

• 11.2% would have voted for Yulia Tymoshenko,
• 7.9% – for Anatolii Hrytsenko,
• 6.5% – for Oleh Liashko,
• 5.2% – for Yurii Boiko
• 5.2% – for Petro Poroshenko,
• 4.1% – for Vadym Rabinovych,
• 1.9% – for Andrii Sadovyi,
• 1.3% – for Oleh Tiahnybok,
• for other candidates in total – 6%,
• 9.4% – would have crossed out all the candidates, spoilt the ballot,
• 11.9% – decided not to participate in the voting,
• 28.3% – have not decided whom to vote for,
• 1.1% – refused to answer the question.

Out of these candidates, considering the statistical error, Yulia Tymoshenko has more than anyone else. The second place is “shared” by Anatolii Hrytsenko and Oleh Liashko, third – by Yurii Boiko, Petro Poroshenko, Volodymyr Rabinovych.

Calculating the percentages in the relation to those who decided with the choice (actually, these are the closest indexes to the possible outcomes of the elections if it had been held in mid-June), there will be the following results:

• 22.8% would have voted for Yulia Tymoshenko,
• 16% – for Anatolii Hrytsenko,
• 13.2% – for Oleh Liashko,
• 10.6% – for Yurii Boiko
• 10.5% – for Petro Poroshenko,
• 8.4% – for Vadym Rabinovych,
• 3.9% – for Andrii Sadovyi,
• 2.6% – for Oleh Tiahnybok,
• for other candidates in total – 12.1%.

Respondents were also asked the following questions: "Imagine, please, that you can vote for several candidates. Please tell me which candidates, other than ... [FIRST CHOICE], could you also vote for?" and “Whom of the candidates would you never vote for?”. In the table below, for each party, there are following data: % of all respondents for whom the candidate is the first choice; % of all respondents who consider this candidate as a possible "second" option; % of all respondents who will not vote for the candidate under any circumstances (anti-rating).

If the elections of the President of Ukraine had been held in mid-June and S.Vakarchuk/V.Zelenskyi participated, then out of all citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and above:

• 10.5% would have voted for Yulia Tymoshenko,
• 6.8% – for Anatolii Hrytsenko,
• 5.8% – for Oleh Liashko,
• 5.5% – for Yurii Boiko
• 4.6% – for Petro Poroshenko,
• 4.5% – for Volodymyr Zelenskyi,
• 4% – for Vadym Rabinovych,
• 4% – for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk
• 1.5% – for Oleh Tiahnybok,
• 1.3% – for Andrii Sadovyi,
• for other candidates in total – 5.5%,
• 7.9% – would have crossed out all the candidates, spoilt the ballot,
• 9.4% – decided not to participate in the voting,
• 26.9% – have not decided whom to vote for,
• 1.8% – refused to answer the question.

Calculating the percentages in the relation to those who decided with the choice (actually, these are the closest indexes to the possible outcomes of the elections if it had been held in mid-June), there will be the following results:

• 19.5% would have voted for Yulia Tymoshenko,
• 12.6% – for Anatolii Hrytsenko,
• 10.7% – for Oleh Liashko,
• 10.2% – for Yurii Boiko
• 8.5% – for Petro Poroshenko,
• 8.3% – for Volodymyr Zelenskyi,
• 7.5% – for Vadym Rabinovych,
• 7.4% – for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk
• 2.7% – for Oleh Tiahnybok,
• 2.4% – for Andrii Sadovyi,
• for other candidates in total – 10.2%.

Addition

Below is a fragment of the questionnaire with the distribution of the respondents' answers into the questions that are published in the press release.

The questions from the questionnaire are presented in the same order as they were provided to the respondents.

Imagine that the presidential elections are happening now, and you are visited by the representatives of the election commission. Here is the ballot for voting [HAND IN THE CARD]. Will you vote? IF “YES”: What would be your choice if the following candidates participate?

 Imagine, please, that you can vote for several candidates. Please, tell me which candidates, other than ... [FIRST CHOICE], could you also vote for?

Whom of the candidates would you never vote for, under any circumstances?

It is not clear yet which candidates will participate in the presidential elections, and what will be the list for voting. That is why sociologists ask questions about the elections several times with the different lists. What would be your choice if the following candidates participated in the elections?

Imagine that the parliamentary elections are happening now, and you are visited by the representatives of the election commission. Here is the ballot for voting [HAND IN THE CARD]. Will you vote? IF “YES”: What would be your choice if the following parties participate?

Imagine, please, that you can vote for several parties. Please, tell me which party or parties, other than ... [FIRST CHOICE], could you also vote for?

Which party or parties would you never vote for, under any circumstances?

It is not clear yet which parties will participate in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada, and what will be the list for voting. That is why sociologists ask questions about the elections several times with the different lists. What would be your choice if the following parties participated in the elections?

In your opinion, are you generally satisfied or dissatisfied with the direction in which our country is moving? CLARIFY: Are you very or rather satisfied/dissatisfied?

And if the referendum on whether Ukraine should join NATO was happening now, what would be your choice - for joining, against joining or skip the question – not to participate in the poll?

Б9. In your opinion, what direction of foreign policy should Ukraine take –

Regarding the commentary contact, please, Anton Hrushetskyi: a.grushetsky@kiis.com.ua, +38(050)1309989