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A week before elections of the President: ratings of candidates, choice motivation, expectations of citizens

A nationwide survey of the population of Ukraine was conducted by Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation in conjunction with Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. The field study lasted from March 20 to March 26, 2019. In total, 1600 respondents were interviewed in all regions of Ukraine, except for the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. In Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the poll was conducted only in the territories controlled by Ukraine.

The statistical error (with a probability of 0.95 and a design effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 3.7% for indicators close to 50%, 3.2% - for indicators close to 25%, 2.2% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.7% - for indicators close to 5%.

The funding of the survey was carried out within the framework of the MATRA project of the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands.

 

The Round Table "Three Days Before the elections of the President: Challenges, Electoral Trends, Public Control" is being conducted by Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation within the framework of the program for the support of public activity "Doluchaisya (Join Us)!", funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by the Pact in Ukraine. The contents of the event are solely the responsibility of Pact and its partners and they do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) or the US Government.
 

 

  • The overwhelming majority of citizens (85%) intend to vote in the elections of the President of Ukraine: 62% are sure of this, another 23% will "most likely" participate. By age, the smallest willingness to participate in the elections was among young people under 30 years of age (49% are confident in their participation in the elections, 25%  will "most likely" participate), and the highest readiness is observed among citizens over 60 years old (68% and 22%, respectively). Among the regions, the highest readiness to participate is observed among the respondents from the Western region, the lowest - in the East.
  • V.Zelensky is a leader among the candidates for the presidential post - 17.8% of all respondents are ready to vote for him (20.9% of those who intend to participate in the elections and 27.6% of those who have already decided with their choice). Petro Poroshenko is in the second place (respectively, 11.7% of all respondents, 13.7% among those who are ready to vote, 18.2% among those who have already decided with their choice). Yulia Tymoshenko is in the third place (8.3% among all, 9.7% among those who are ready to vote, 12.8% among those determined).
  • Yurii Boiko comes in the fourth place (7.1% among all, 8.4% among those who are ready to vote, 11.1% among those who are determined about the candidate); Anatolii Hrytsenko - 5.4%, 6.3%, 8.4%, respectively; Oleh Lyashko - 3.4%, 4.0% and 5.2%, respectively; Ihor Smeshko - 2.8%, 3.3% and 4.4%, respectively; Oleksandr Vilkul - 2.6%, 3.0% and 4.0%, respectively; Ruslan Koshulynskyi - 1.1%, 1.3% and 1.7, respectively. Each of the remaining candidates gathers less than 1% of the votes.
  • At the same time, it is important to note that one week before the elections a significant part of the voters - 24% of those who intend to participate in the elections - has not determined the chosen candidate, and another 9% of all respondents refused to answer this question. How will these people vote and whether they will go to the elections is an open question for now.

  • The greatest support of Volodymyr Zelenskyi is shown in the Southern region (26% among those who intend to take part in the elections), but the support is significant in other regions a well: 19% in the East, 18% in the Center, and almost 16% in the West. The rating of Petro Poroshenko is better in the Western (17%) and Central (15%) regions but is smaller in the South (10%) and even less in the East (5%). Yulia Tymoshenko has a relatively even support in the West (11%), the South (10%) and the Center (9%) and much less - in the East (3%). Yurii Boiko, on the contrary, has the highest number of supporters in the East (25%), much less in the South (10%) and even less in the Center (5%) and in the West (3%). Anatolii Hrytsenko also has a regional voter: 10% in the West, 5.5% in the Center, 3% in the South and 2% in the East. But the voters of Oleh Lyashko are distributed evenly: 3-4% in each region.
  • Volodymyr Zelenskyi is the absolute leader of young voters: in the age group under 30 years, 45% of young voters are ready to vote for him, further support is gradually decreasing: 26% among voters aged 30-44, 12% among voters aged 45-59, and 6% among those who are 60+ years old. On the contrary, Petro Poroshenko has the lowest support among voters under 30 years old (7%), while in other age groups his support is at the level of 13-15%. Yulia Tymoshenko has even less support among young people under the age of 30 (3%), and the highest support among voters aged 45 and above (12%). The senior voter is dominant for other candidates as well: Anatolii Hrytsenko - 2% of voters under the age of 30, 5% in the age group of 30-44, 6% in the group aged 45-59 and 9% among voters aged 60+. The same is the case with Yurii Boiko, whose electorate is the smallest among young people under 30 years (1%) and the largest among voters older than 60 years (13%).
  • Most adherents of certain candidates (65%) believe that their choice is final and will not change, but each of the popular candidates has 30-40% of those potential voters who can still rethink and support another candidate.
  • The main reasons for the election of a particular candidate were: the proximity of the candidate's ideas and proposals (43%), the attractiveness of the candidate as a person (34%), the candidate's future strategy for the country (27%), the candidate's ability to ensure peace in the Donbass (26%), the candidate's vision of ensuring the economic growth of the country (23%).
  • Among the motives for choosing a particular candidate, the most important were the following: candidate's personal qualities (43%), program and proposals (34%), presence of “dirty” past, compromise (27%) and the previous activity (26%). In comparison with the August poll in 2018, the influence of the presence of compromise on the motivation of choice increased (from 6% to 27%), and, conversely, the significance of previous activity decreased (from 49% to 26%).
  • In general, the poll showed that voters are clearly not well aware of what the President is specifically responsible for, putting in line with his obligations some functions that are not actually included - for example, to establish fair tariffs (35%) or to establish a fair level of wages and pensions ( 32%), and, at the same time, excluding some duties that are directly in the sphere of the competence of the President - to lead the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (17%), to award state awards (10%), etc.
  • Similarly, just a minority of voters know the proposals of the candidates they choose on important issues of foreign and domestic policy, especially it is typical for Zelenskyi's voters.
  • Only among the voters of three candidates - Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko - there is prevailing confidence that their candidate will enter the second round. The main motive for voting for the candidates who are not going to enter the second round is that the candidate belongs to a certain political force that the voter will support in the parliamentary elections.
  • Regarding the prediction of who will win the election and become the next President of Ukraine, 21.5% believe that it will be Volodymyr Zelenskyi, 18% are certain that it will be Petro Poroshenko and 10% believe in the victory of Yulia Tymoshenko.
  • The majority of the citizens (59%) do not believe that the presidential elections will be honest, 31% believe it. However, according to a poll from August 2018, the belief in the fair election was even lower - 17% and confidence in that the elections will be dishonest was higher - 70%.
  • Most citizens trust the results of exit polls (55% trust, 35% do not trust and 10% do not know). Moreover, the confidence in the results of exit polls is typical for voters of all rating candidates.
  • 56% of citizens believe that the situation in the country will become better because of the presidential election, 16% are certain that nothing will change, and only 10% predict a change in the situation for the worse. Compared to August 2018, optimism has grown substantially: only 36% believed in change for the better, and 30% believed that nothing would change then. Confidence that the presidential elections will change the situation prevails in all regions of Ukraine: it is the largest in the West (69%), big enough in the Center (66%) and in the South (53%), while in the East optimism is much lower - 37 % are certain that the situation will change for the better, 16% - that the changes will be for the worse, 20% believe that nothing will change and another 26% do not have a certain opinion. Among supporters of different candidates, optimists most of all predominates among the voters of Yulia Tymoshenko (forecasting changes for the better - 81%, for the worse - 6%) and Petro Poroshenko (78% and 5%, respectively).

RESULTS OF THE POLL

1. Do you intend to participate in the elections of the President of Ukraine?

Surely would participate 62.3
Rather would participate 22.9
Rather would not participate 4.3
Surely would not participate 7.5
Hard to say for sure, have not decided yet 3.0

QUESTION 2 FOR THOSE WHO WOULD NOT FOR SURE OR RATHER WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE

2. If you are not going to participate in the elections, then why would you not do this? NO MORE THAN 2 ANSWERS

I will not have this opportunity (I do not live at the place of registration, I will be outside Ukraine at the polling day, and so on) 14.8
I do not care for these elections, because they do not influence my life at all 24.9
I do not see any candidate for who it would be worth voting     36.0
The elections will not change anything, because the President does not influence anything for real       13.8
I am not interested in politics 11.6
I do not believe that elections will be held honestly      15.9
Other 6.3
HARD TO SAY 1.6

 

3.   If you take part in the elections of the President of Ukraine, who will you vote for?

  % all[1] % of those who are going to participate % of those who are going to participate and have decided with the choice
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 17.8 20.9 27.6
Petro Poroshenko 11.7 13.7 18.2
Yulia Tymoshenko 8.3 9.7 128
Yurii Boiko 7.1 8.4 11.1
Anaolii Hrytsenko 5.4 6.3 8.4
Oleh Liashko 3.4 4.0 5.2
Ihor Smeshko 2.8 3.3 44
Oleksandr Vilkul 2.6 3.0 4.0
Ruslan Koshulynskyi 1.1 1.3 1.7
Olha Bogomolets 0.4 0.4 0.6
Oleksandr Shevchenko 0.3 0.4 0.5
Vasyl Zhuravliov 0.3 0.3 0.4
Valentyn Nalyvaichenko 0.2 0.2 0.3
Oleksandr Danyliuk 0.1 0.1 0.2
Yurii Derevianko 0.1 0.1 0.2
Volodymyr Petrov 0.1 0.1 0.2
Serhii Taruta 0.1 0.1 0.2
Hennadii Balashov 0.1 0.1 0.1
Roman Bezsmertnyi 0.1 0.1 0.1
Serhii Kaplin 0.1 0.1 0.1
Yurii Karmzin 0.1 0.1 0.1
Arkadii Kornatskyi 0.1 0.1 0.1
Oleksandr Moroz 0.1 0.1 0.1
Oleksandr Soloviov 0.1 0.1 0.1
Yurii Tymoshenko 0.1 0.1 0.1
WOULD CROSS OUT ALL THE CANDIDATES 2.2 2.6 3.4
HARD TO SAY/HAVE NOT DECIDED YET 20.7 24.3  
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING 8,9    
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE IN VOTING 6,0    
       

 

QUESTIONS 4-5 ARE ASKED TO RESPONDENTS WHO ARE DECIDED ABOUT THE CANDIDATE CHOICE (ANSWERS 1-39 TO THE 3RD QUESTION)

4. To what extent is your choice final?

My choice is final, I am not going to change it 64.8
I prefer this candidate now, but I may change my mind 31.7
My choice is not final, everything can change 3.1
HARD TO SAY 0.4

 

5.   Why have you decided to vote for this particular candidate? NO MORE THAN 5 ANSWERS  

This candidate can ensure the peace on Donbas 25.8
I relate to ideas and proposals of this candidate 43.3
This candidate attracts me as a person 33.9
This candidate belongs to the party I support 11.2
This candidate has the best strategy of the country`s development 27.5
This candidate has the best team of professionals who are able to provide development and order in the state 16.8
This candidate sees real ways to overcome the economic crisis and ensure the country's economic recovery 22.7
This candidate will be able to overcome corruption and punish corrupted officials 18.6
This candidate will take care of people like me 19.5
This candidate has already done a lot for Ukraine 7.9
This candidate will be able to achieve Ukraine's accession to NATO and make significant steps towards European integration 7.3
This candidate will be able to unite the citizens of all regions and overcome the split of Ukraine 8
This candidate will be able to have the majority in the upcoming  Verkhovna Rada, therefore he/she will be able to influence its decision 3.3
This candidate has respect in the international area 5
This candidate will be able to resist the aggression of Russia and ensure Ukraine's independence and security 4.4
This candidate will be able to return the Crimea to Ukraine 1
This candidate is the least entangled in corruption and other dishonest acts 7.7
This candidate will be able to establish good relations with Russia 3.1
 This candidate is a "fresh blood", he does not belong to the current government 11.6
 I vote for this candidate every time 1.7
 This candidate will ensure the removal of parliamentary immunity and the elimination of parliamentary privileges 2.4
I consider this candidate "lesser evil" in comparison with others 9.2
Other reasons 1.9
 HARD TO SAY 0.6

 

6. And what factors do influence your choice of the candidate the most? MULTIPLE ANSWERS ALLOWED

Previous activity 25.8
Personal qualities 43.3
Program and proposal 33.9
Speeches in public debates 11.2
Presence of «dirty» facts, compromise 27.5
Team of comrades 16.8
Publications in mass-media 22.7
Visual agitation, posters 18.6
Tips from people I trust 19.5
Other 7.9
HARD TO SAY   7.3

 

7. What do you think should be the responsibility of the President of Ukraine?MULTIPLE ANSWERS POSSIBLE

Provide state independence, national security 64.6
Represent the state in international relations, to lead the foreign policy activity of the state, to negotiate and conclude international agreements of Ukraine 52.7
Establish fair tariffs 35.4
Appoint and dismiss heads of diplomatic missions of Ukraine in other states 25.1
Appoint the Prime Minister of Ukraine 19.4
Submit a statement on the appointment of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine 25.3
Appoint and dismiss the senior command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other military formations and to exercise leadership in the areas of national security and defense of the state 29.2
Appoint the Head of the National Bank 14.1
Ensure the stability of the national currency 21.1
Establish a fair level of salaries and pensions 32.1
Carry out the medical reform 15.1
Head the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine 17.1
Be responsible for the actions of local authorities 15.3
Provide a high level of education for young people 13.5
Sew the corrupted authorities for their criminal acts 23.4
Awarding with the state awards 10.1
Other 2.7
HARD TO SAY 4.4

 

Are you aware of the proposals of the presidential candidate who you are going to vote for on such issues:

  Yes, I am aware I know something about it, but I'm not sure No, I am not aware It is not important for my choice HARD TO SAY
8. How to ensure peace on Donbas? 35.0 34.9 20.9 3.7 5.5
9. How to return the occupied territories of Crimea? 21.4 31.4 32.7 6.1 8.4
10. Policy regarding Russia 34.0 34.1 21.8 5.7 4.4
11. Reform of the courts and law enforcement agencies 22.5 34.7 30.1 5.9 6.8
12. Defense reform and reform of the Armed Forces 25.0 31.2 29.2 7.1 7.4
13. Fight against the corruption 37.4 38.4 16.9 3.0 4.3
 14. Social reforms (medical, pensionary etc.) 36.7 35.2 19.9 3.4 4.8
15. European integration 34.3 29.7 21.9 8.6 5.4
16. Accession to NATO 32.1 25.4 25.2 10.9 6.4
17. Land reform 19.3 31.9 34.3 6.9 7.6
18. Ways of economic growth 37.3 38.4 17.4 3.2 3.7
19. Personnel appointments 19.3 30.8 34.1 7.8 8.0

 

 

20.  In your opinion, will the candidate who you want to vote for enter the second round of the elections?

Yes, definitely 55.3
Possibly 32.5
No 5.6
HARD TO SAY 6.6

 

21.  If you do not believe that your candidate will enter the second round of elections, why will you vote for him?

Because I like him/her 32.1
Because this candidate is a representative of the political force, which I will support in the parliamentary elections 41.1
So that this candidate will have a political perspective in the future 21.4
Other 3.6
HARD TO SAY 1.8

 

25. In your opinion, who will win the elections and become the next President of Ukraine?

Hennadii Balashov 0.0
Roman Bezsmertnyi 0.0
Olha Bogomolets 0.3
Inna Bohoslovska 0.0
Yurii Boiko 2.2
Viktor Bondar 0.0
Oleksandr Vashchnko 0.1
Oleksandr Vilkul 0.6
Mykola Haber 0.1
Anatolii Hrytsenko 2.1
Oleksandr Danyliuk 0.1
Yurii Derevianko 0.2
Vasyl Zhuravliov 0.1
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 21.5
Serhii Kaplin 0.0
Yurii Karmazin 0.0
Illia Kiva 0.0
Arkadii Kornatskyi 0.0
Ruslan koshulynskyi 0.2
Viktor Kryvenko 0.1
Vitalii Kuprii 0.0
Yuliia Lytynenko  0.0
Oleh Liashko 1.1
Oleksandr Moroz 0.0
Valentyn Nalyvaichenko 0.0
Roman Nasirov 0.0
Andrii Novak 0.0
Serhii Nosenko 0.0
Volodymyr Petrov 0.0
Petro Poroshenko 18.3
Ruslan Rygovanov 0.0
Vitalii Skotsyk 0.0
Ihor Smeshko 0.5
Oleksandr Soloviov 0.0
Serhii Taruta 0.1
Yulia Tymoshenko 10.1
Yurii Tymoshenko 0.3
Ihor Shevchenko 0.0
Oleksandr Shevchenko 0.1
HARD TO SAY 42.1

 

26. In your opinion, will the next election of the President of Ukraine be honest?

Fully honest 3.6
Rather honest 27.8
Not very honest 38.8
Not honest at all 20.4
HARD TO SAY 9.4

 

27.  Do you trust the results of exit-polls?

Yes, sure 16.1
Yes, but only to those conducted by the authoritative sociological services with transparent funding 38.6
No 19.1
I do not know what is it 15.6
HARD TO SAY 10.6

 

28.  In your opinion, how the next election of the President of Ukraine will change the situation in the country?

The situation will change considerably for the better 14.4
The situation will change a little bit for the better 41.8
The situation will change a little bit for the worse 6.9
The situation will change considerably for the worse 3.0
Nothing will change 16.1
HARD TO SAY 17.8

 

TWO-LEVEL DISTRIBUTIONS

 

Do you intend to participate in the elections of the President of Ukraine?

  West Center South East
Surely would participate 66.2 59.9 65.1 55.5
Rather would participate 24.0 24.9 20.7 19.4
Rather would not participate 3.6 5.2 3.2 5.7
Surely would not participate 4.0 8.2 7.6 12.3
Hard to say for sure, have not decided yet 2.1 1.8 3.4 7.1

 

Do you intend to participate in the elections of the President of Ukraine?

  18-29 y.o. 30-44 y.o. 45-59 y.o. 60 and above
Surely would participate 49.0 63.1 65.2 67.7
Rather would participate 24.7 22.4 22.9 22.1
Rather would not participate 8.1 3.8 2.9 3.6
Surely would not participate 14.2 6.9 6.6 4.5
Hard to say for sure, have not decided yet 4.1 3.8 2.4 2.0

 

If you are not going to participate in the elections, then why would you not do this?

  West Center South East
I will not have this opportunity (I do not live at the place of registration, I will be outside Ukraine at the polling day, and so on) 15.6 12.0 13.6 21.1
I do not care for these elections, because they do not influence my life at all 25.0 29.3 18.2 23.7
I do not see any candidate for who it would be worth voting    37.5 50.7 27.3 15.8
The elections will not change anything, because the President does not influence anything for real            12.5 12.0 20.5 10.5
I am not interested in politics 6.3 8.0 22.7 10.5
I do not believe that elections will be held honestly           9.4 13.3 25.0 15.8
Other 6.3 5.3 6.8 7.9
Hard to say 3.1 1.3 0.0 2.6

 

If you are not going to participate in the elections, then why would you not do this?

  18-29 y.o. 30-44 y.o. 45-59 y.o. 60 and above
I will not have this opportunity (I do not live at the place of registration, I will be outside Ukraine at the polling day, and so on) 18.2 10.4 17.9 11.1
I do not care for these elections, because they do not influence my life at all 27.3 25.0 10.3 36.1
I do not see any candidate for who it would be worth voting     34.8 41.7 33.3 33.3
The elections will not change anything, because the President does not influence anything for real     9.1 20.8 23.1 2.8
I am not interested in politics 12.1 10.4 12.8 11.1
I do not believe that elections will be held honestly      10.6 16.7 20.5 19.4
Other 3.0 8.3 5.1 11.1
Hard to say 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

 

If you take part in the elections of the President of Ukraine, who will you vote for? (% of those who state that will definitely or rather participate in voting)

  West Center South East
Roman Bezsmertnyi 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0
Olha Bogomolets 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.6
Yurii Boiko 3.2 4.9 9.9 25.3
Oleksandr Vilkul 0.8 0.4 6.0 8.2
Anatolii Hrytsenko 10.3 5.5 3.4 1.9
Yurii Derevianko 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Vasyl Zhuravliov 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 15.6 18.1 26.1 19.0
Serhii Kaplin 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Yurii Karmazin 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0
Arkadii Kornatskyi 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ruslan Koshulynskyi 1.3 2.3 0.3 0.0
Oleh Liashko 3.7 4.4 4.0 3.2
Oleksandr Moroz 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Valentyn Nalyvaichenko 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.0
Volodymyr Petrov 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0
Petro Poroshenko 16.6 15.0 10.2 5.1
Ihor Smeshko 2.6 3.6 3.4 2.5
Oleksndr Soloviov 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Serhii Taruta 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0
Yulia Tymoshenko 11.3 9.1 10.2 3.2
Yurii Tymohenko 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oleksandr Shevchenko 1.1 0.0 0.3 0.0
Would cross out all the candidates 1.1 1.3 1.7 0.0
Hard to say/undecided 24.0 21.7 15.3 19.0
Denial from answering 5.8 12.4 7.4 11.4

 

If you take part in the elections of the President of Ukraine, who will you vote for? (% of those who state that will definitely or rather participate in voting)

  18-29 y.o. 30-44 y.o. 45-59 y.o. 60 and above
Roman Bezsmertnyi 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0
Olha Bogomolets 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.0
Yurii Boiko 1.4 4.4 10.8 12.8
Oleksandr Vilkul 1.4 3.6 1.7 4.0
Anatolii Hrytsenko 1.8 4.7 6.1 9.0
Yurii Derevianko 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Vasyl Zhuravliov 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.5
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 45.0 26.0 12.4 6.0
Serhii Kaplin 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Yurii Karmazin 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Arkadii Kornatskyi 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ruslan Koshulynskyi 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.5
Oleh Liashko 4.6 2.1 3.0 6.3
Oleksandr Moroz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
Valentyn Nalyvaichenko 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0
Volodymyr Petrov 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
Petro Poroshenko 7.3 14.8 14.9 12.8
Ihor Smeshko 2.8 2.9 2.5 4.3
Oleksndr Soloviov 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Serhii Taruta 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3
Yulia Tymoshenko 2.8 7.3 12.2 12.3
Yurii Tymohenko 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
Oleksandr Shevchenko 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0
Would cross out all the candidates 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.8
Hard to say/undecided 19.3 20.3 21.3 20.4
Denial from answering 9.2 8.8 10.5 8.3

 

 

If you take part in the elections of the President of Ukraine, who will you vote for? (% of those who state that will definitely or rather participate in voting)

  Secondary education Special secondary education Higher or incomplete higher education
Roman Bezsmertnyi 0.0 0.0 0.2
Olha Bogomolets 0.4 0.3 0.5
Yurii Boiko 10.8 8.4 6.1
Oleksandr Vilkul 2.2 2.8 2.7
Anatolii Hrytsenko 5.4 6.0 6.4
Yurii Derevianko 0.4 0.0 0.0
Vasyl Zhuravliov 0.4 0.0 0.5
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 18.1 18.0 23.4
Serhii Kaplin 0.0 0.0 0.2
Yurii Karmazin 0.0 0.0 0.2
Arkadii Kornatskyi 0.0 0.2 0.0
Ruslan Koshulynskyi 0.0 1.3 2.0
Oleh Liashko 6.5 4.5 0.7
Oleksandr Moroz 0.4 0.0 0.0
Valentyn Nalyvaichenko 0.0 0.3 0.2
Volodymyr Petrov 0.0 0.3 0.0
Petro Poroshenko 13.4 11.5 15.7
Ihor Smeshko 2.5 2.4 4.8
Oleksndr Soloviov 0.0 0.0 0.2
Serhii Taruta 0.0 0.2 0.2
Yulia Tymoshenko 10.1 10.5 5.7
Yurii Tymohenko 0.0 0.2 0.0
Oleksandr Shevchenko 0.4 0.3 0.5
Would cross out all the candidates 1.1 1.5 0.9
Hard to say/undecided 20.2 23.3 17.0
Denial from answering 7.6 7.9 11.8

 

If you take part in the elections of the President of Ukraine, who will you vote for? (% of those who state that will definitely or rather participate in voting)

  We hardly make ends meet, not enough money even for necessary groceries We have enough money  for food and for the purchase of the necessary inexpensive things In general, it is enough for a living but the acquisition of things of durable use such as furniture, a refrigerator, a TV is already troublesome We live well but we can not afford buying some goods (to buy an apartment, car, etc.)
Roman Bezsmertnyi 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0
Olha Bogomolets 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.2
Yurii Boiko 12.4 8.3 5.0 6.1
Oleksandr Vilkul 4.5 1.8 2.9 2.4
Anatolii Hrytsenko 5.2 6.1 6.7 4.9
Yurii Derevianko 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0
Vasyl Zhuravliov 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.0
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 12.4 18.2 25.2 25.6
Serhii Kaplin 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Yurii Karmazin 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0
Arkadii Kornatskyi 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0
Ruslan Koshulynskyi 1.0 1.7 1.2 0.0
Oleh Liashko 9.0 3.3 1.7 2.4
Oleksandr Moroz 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Valentyn Nalyvaichenko 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0
Volodymyr Petrov 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0
Petro Poroshenko 9.0 12.7 14.5 22.0
Ihor Smeshko 1.4 2.4 5.2 4.9
Oleksndr Soloviov 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0
Serhii Taruta 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0
Yulia Tymoshenko 13.4 10.5 6.7 2.4
Yurii Tymohenko 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oleksandr Shevchenko 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.0
Would cross out all the candidates 1.7 0.7 1.2 2.4
Hard to say/undecided 20.0 23.0 18.8 13.4
Denial from answering 8.3 9.9 7.4 12.2

 

 

 In your opinion, who will win the elections and become the next President of Ukraine?

  West Center South East
Olha Bogomolets 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.5
Yurii Boiko 1.0 1.4 3.7 3.8
Oleksandr Vashchenko 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5
Oleksandr Vilkul 0.2 0.2 1.5 0.9
Mykola Haber 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
Anatolii Hrytsenko 3.3 1.8 2.0 0.9
Oleksandr Danyliuk 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5
Yurii Derevianko 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
Vasyl Zhuravliov 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 18.6 24.0 22.2 19.4
Ruslan Koshulynskyi 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Viktor Kryvenko 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oleh Liashko 1.0 1.8 0.7 0.0
Petro Poroshenko 23.1 22.0 11.5 12.3
Ihor Smeshko 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.0
Serhii Taruta 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0
Yulia Tymoshenko 11.0 9.8 11.5 6.6
Yurii Tymoshenko 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0
Oleksandr Shevchenko 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0
Hard to say 39.8 37.0 45.1 54.0

 

In your opinion, who will win the elections and become the next President of Ukraine?

  18-29 y.o. 30-44 y.o. 45-59 y.o. 60 and above
Olha Bogomolets 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.0
Yurii Boiko 0.7 1.1 3.4 3.2
Oleksandr Vashchenko 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oleksandr Vilkul 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.7
Mykola Haber 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0
Anatolii Hrytsenko 1.7 1.3 2.4 2.9
Oleksandr Danyliuk 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
Yurii Derevianko 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.2
Vasyl Zhuravliov 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 38.5 27.1 16.1 9.5
Ruslan Koshulynskyi 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
Viktor Kryvenko 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0
Oleh Liashko 1.7 0.4 1.0 1.4
Petro Poroshenko 10.5 19.3 19.2 21.7
Ihor Smeshko 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.7
Serhii Taruta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
Yulia Tymoshenko 6.1 8.9 10.7 13.5
Yurii Tymoshenko 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.2
Oleksandr Shevchenko 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0
Hard to say 37.8 39.3 45.0 44.9

 

To what extent is your choice final?

  Voters of Boiko Voters of Hrytsenko Voters of Zelenskyi Voters of Liashko Voters of Poroshenko Voters of Tymoshenko
 My choice is final, I am not going to change it 60.5 59.3 68.7 59.3 67.4 67.4
I prefer this candidate now, but I may change my mind 36.8 38.4 27.5 40.7 29.4 28.0
My choice is not final, everything can change 2.6 2.3 3.2 0.0 2.7 4.5
       Hard to say 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.5 0.0

 

Why have you decided to vote for this particular candidate? (no more than 5 answers)

  Voters of Boiko Voters of Hrytsenko Voters of Zelenskyi Voters of Liashko Voters of Poroshenko Voters of Tymoshenko
This candidate can ensure the peace on Donbas 68.4 32.6 12.3 16.7 22.5 22.0
I relate to ideas and proposals of this candidate 58.8 55.8 31.3 46.3 32.1 48.5
This candidate attracts me as a person 25.4 30.2 42.6 29.6 22.5 39.4
This candidate belongs to the party I support 21.9 7.0 7.0 9.3 11.8 12.1
This candidate has the best strategy of country`s development 36.0 31.4 13.7 35.2 35.3 37.1
This candidate has the best team of professionals who are able to provide development and order in the state 22.8 18.6 9.9 13.0 14.4 31.8
This candidate sees real ways to overcome the economic crisis and ensure the country's economic recovery 30.7 26.7 14.4 29.6 19.3 27.3
This candidate will be able to overcome corruption and punish corrupted officials 18.4 30.2 15.8 31.5 12.8 18.2
This candidate will take care of people like me 28.9 12.8 22.5 24.1 9.6 18.9
This candidate has already done a lot for Ukraine 6.1 3.5 1.8 3.7 25.1 6.8
This candidate will be able to achieve Ukraine's accession to NATO and make significant steps towards European integration 0.0 9.3 5.6 5.6 20.3 0.8
This candidate will be able to unite the citizens of all regions and overcome the split of Ukraine 9.6 11.6 8.8 3.7 7.5 6.8
This candidate will be able to have the majority in the upcoming  Verkhovna Rada, therefore he/she will be able to influence its decision 0.0 3.5 3.9 0.0 5.9 3.0
This candidate has respect in the international area 0.0 4.7 3.5 0.0 13.4 5.3
This candidate will be able to resist the aggression of Russia and ensure Ukraine's independence and security 1.8 5.8 1.8 0.0 11.2 3.8
This candidate will be able to return the Crimea to Ukraine 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.0 1.1 0.8
This candidate is the least entangled in corruption and other dishonest acts 5.3 9.3 16.9 9.3 0.5 1.5
This candidate will be able to establish good relations with Russia 12.3 2.3 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.5
 This candidate is a "fresh blood", he does not belong to the current government 0.0 1.2 37.3 1.9 0.0 0.0
 I vote for this candidate every time 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 3.7 5.3
 This candidate will ensure the removal of parliamentary immunity and the elimination of parliamentary privileges 0.0 4.7 4.2 7.4 0.0 0.8
I consider this candidate "lesser evil" in comparison with others 4.4 4.7 16.5 5.6 9.1 5.3
Other reasons 1.8 1.2 2.8 1.9 1.6 0.8
Hard to say 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

 

And what factors do influence your choice of the candidate the most?

  Voters of Boiko Voters of Hrytsenko Voters of Zelenskyi Voters of Liashko Voters of Poroshenko Voters of Tymoshenko
Previous activity 49.1 51.2 15.5 31.5 71.7 49.2
Personal qualities 57.9 65.1 78.2 64.8 46.5 63.6
Program and proposal 67.5 48.8 32.4 59.3 39.0 56.8
Speeches in public debates 23.7 9.3 8.5 24.1 8.6 18.2
Presence of «dirty» facts, compromise 12.3 5.8 6.7 1.9 4.8 6.1
Team of comrades 26.3 19.8 11.3 5.6 9.6 12.9
Publications in mass-media 1.8 4.7 6.7 0.0 3.2 6.1
Visual agitation, posters 3.5 4.7 2.1 0.0 1.6 5.3
Tips from people I trust 9.6 9.3 13.4 7.4 9.1 6.8
Other 0.9 0.0 3.9 1.9 2.1 0.0
HARD TO SAY  0.0 1.2 2.8 0.0 1.6 1.5

 

What do you think should be the responsibility of the President of Ukraine?

  Voters of Boiko Voters of Hrytsenko Voters of Zelenskyi Voters of Liashko Voters of Poroshenko Voters of Tymoshenko
Provide state independence, national security 67.5 69.8 66.5 61.1 78.6 59.1
Represent the state in international relations, to lead the foreign policy activity of the state, to negotiate and conclude international agreements of Ukraine 55.3 54.7 52.8 50.0 52.9 49.2
Establish fair tariffs 53.5 36.0 35.6 50.0 20.3 48.5
Appoint and dismiss heads of diplomatic missions of Ukraine in other states 32.5 31.4 22.5 24.1 26.2 31.1
Appoint the Prime Minister of Ukraine 26.3 23.3 18.7 18.5 21.9 24.2
Submit a statement on the appointment of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine 26.3 33.7 25.7 16.7 30.5 22.7
Appoint and dismiss the senior command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other military formations and to exercise leadership in the areas of national security and defense of the state 28.1 36.0 28.5 13.0 39.0 28.0
Appoint the Head of the National Bank 15.8 22.1 15.5 7.4 16.0 14.4
Ensure the stability of the national currency 26.3 23.3 22.5 13.0 13.9 22.7
Establish a fair level of salaries and pensions 30.7 29.1 34.2 33.3 24.1 41.7
Carry out the medical reform 14.0 17.4 14.4 16.7 10.7 15.2
Head the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine 14.0 19.8 19.0 9.3 17.1 17.4
Be responsible for the actions of local authorities 14.0 14.0 21.1 14.8 9.6 12.1
Provide a high level of education for young people 12.3 17.4 18.3 3.7 10.2 12.9
Sew the corrupted authorities for their criminal acts 22.8 26.7 26.1 18.5 18.7 23.5
Awarding with the state awards 4.4 11.6 12.3 3.7 13.9 6.8
Other 3.5 1.2 2.5 3.7 1.1 2.3
HARD TO SAY 4.4 1.2 3.9 3.7 3.2 2.3

 

Are you aware of the proposals of the presidential candidate who you are going to vote for on how to ensure peace on Donbas?

  Voters of Boiko Voters of Hrytsenko Voters of Zelenskyi Voters of Liashko Voters of Poroshenko Voters of Tymoshenko
Yes, I am aware 51.8 48.8 20.8 27.8 40.1 34.1
I know something about it, but I'm not sure 31.6 34.9 37.3 35.2 35.3 36.4
No, I am not aware 10.5 14.0 29.6 20.4 17.6 19.7
It is not important for my choice 3.5 1.2 3.2 7.4 3.2 3.8
Hard to say 2.6 1.2 9.2 9.3 3.7 6.1

 

Are you aware of the proposals of the presidential candidate who you are going to vote for on how to return the occupied territories of Crimea?

  Voters of Boiko Voters of Hrytsenko Voters of Zelenskyi Voters of Liashko Voters of Poroshenko Voters of Tymoshenko
Yes, I am aware 23.7 36.0 11.3 18.5 29.4 20.5
I know something about it, but I'm not sure 34.2 34.9 34.2 27.8 30.5 25.0
No, I am not aware 21.9 22.1 38.7 33.3 29.4 38.6
It is not important for my choice 7.9 3.5 6.0 5.6 3.7 7.6
Hard to say 12.3 3.5 9.9 14.8 7.0 8.3

 

Are you aware of the proposals of the presidential candidate who you are going to vote for on the policy regarding the relations with Russia?

  Voters of Boiko Voters of Hrytsenko Voters of Zelenskyi Voters of Liashko Voters of Poroshenko Voters of Tymoshenko
Yes, I am aware 50.0 48.8 18.0 18.5 50.8 24.2
I know something about it, but I'm not sure 33.3 33.7 37.7 31.5 26.7 43.9
No, I am not aware 10.5 14.0 30.3 25.9 15.5 24.2
It is not important for my choice 4.4 1.2 7.7 9.3 4.3 4.5
Hard to say 1.8 2.3 6.3 14.8 2.7 3.0

 

Are you aware of the proposals of the presidential candidate who you are going to vote for on the reform of the courts and law enforcement agencies?

  Voters of Boiko Voters of Hrytsenko Voters of Zelenskyi Voters of Liashko Voters of Poroshenko Voters of Tymoshenko
Yes, I am aware 21.9 44.2 14.1 18.5 27.8 18.9
I know something about it, but I'm not sure 37.7 29.1 32.0 40.7 38.5 34.8
No, I am not aware 26.3 23.3 37.7 20.4 25.1 33.3
It is not important for my choice 2.6 2.3 8.1 11.1 4.8 4.5
Hard to say 11.4 1.2 8.1 9.3 3.7 8.3

 

Are you aware of the proposals of the presidential candidate who you are going to vote for on the Defense reform and reform of the Armed Forces?

  Voters of Boiko Voters of Hrytsenko Voters of Zelenskyi Voters of Liashko Voters of Poroshenko Voters of Tymoshenko
Yes, I am aware 13.2 54.7 10.2 14.8 47.6 18.9
I know something about it, but I'm not sure 31.6 29.1 29.9 27.8 30.5 35.6
No, I am not aware 37.7 12.8 39.1 35.2 16.0 32.6
It is not important for my choice 7.0 2.3 9.9 11.1 3.2 6.1
Hard to say 10.5 1.2 10.9 11.1 2.7 6.8

 

Are you aware of the proposals of the presidential candidate who you are going to vote for on the fight against corruption?

  Voters of Boiko Voters of Hrytsenko Voters of Zelenskyi Voters of Liashko Voters of Poroshenko Voters of Tymoshenko
Yes, I am aware 36.0 65.1 30.3 37.0 35.8 36.4
I know something about it, but I'm not sure 36.8 23.3 41.5 35.2 42.8 43.9
No, I am not aware 18.4 9.3 20.4 13.0 13.4 17.4
It is not important for my choice 2.6 2.3 3.5 7.4 2.7 0.8
Hard to say 6.1 0.0 4.2 7.4 5.3 1.5

 

Are you aware of the proposals of the presidential candidate who you are going to vote for on the social reforms (medical, pensionary, etc.)?

  Voters of Boiko Voters of Hrytsenko Voters of Zelenskyi Voters of Liashko Voters of Poroshenko Voters of Tymoshenko
Yes, I am aware 40.4 39.5 20.4 46.3 45.5 45.5
I know something about it, but I'm not sure 36.0 44.2 35.6 27.8 34.8 33.3
No, I am not aware 14.9 12.8 32.4 9.3 15.5 15.9
It is not important for my choice 1.8 1.2 4.2 9.3 2.1 2.3
Hard to say 7.0 2.3 7.4 7.4 2.1 3.0

 

Are you aware of the proposals of the presidential candidate who you are going to vote for on the European integration?

  Voters of Boiko Voters of Hrytsenko Voters of Zelenskyi Voters of Liashko Voters of Poroshenko Voters of Tymoshenko
Yes, I am aware 17.5 52.3 21.1 20.4 61.5 30.3
I know something about it, but I'm not sure 31.6 26.7 33.5 35.2 24.1 34.1
No, I am not aware 24.6 14.0 30.3 25.9 9.1 24.2
It is not important for my choice 16.7 4.7 9.2 11.1 3.7 7.6
Hard to say 9.6 2.3 6.0 7.4 1.6 3.8

 

Are you aware of the proposals of the presidential candidate who you are going to vote for on the joining NATO?

  Voters of Boiko Voters of Hrytsenko Voters of Zelenskyi Voters of Liashko Voters of Poroshenko Voters of Tymoshenko
Yes, I am aware 14.0 51.2 16.2 22.2 62.0 28.8
I know something about it, but I'm not sure 27.2 23.3 28.5 29.6 22.5 27.3
No, I am not aware 30.7 17.4 37.3 24.1 11.2 25.0
It is not important for my choice 21.9 4.7 9.9 16.7 2.7 9.8
Hard to say 6.1 3.5 8.1 7.4 1.6 9.1

 

 

Are you aware of the proposals of the presidential candidate who you are going to vote for on the land reform?

  Voters of Boiko Voters of Hrytsenko Voters of Zelenskyi Voters of Liashko Voters of Poroshenko Voters of Tymoshenko
Yes, I am aware 13.2 30.2 9.9 27.8 25.1 23.5
I know something about it, but I'm not sure 33.3 32.6 27.5 31.5 37.4 38.6
No, I am not aware 38.6 33.7 46.1 22.2 26.2 28.0
It is not important for my choice 4.4 2.3 8.1 11.1 4.8 3.0
Hard to say 10.5 1.2 8.5 7.4 6.4 6.8

 

Are you aware of the proposals of the presidential candidate who you are going to vote for on the ways of economic growth?

  Voters of Boiko Voters of Hrytsenko Voters of Zelenskyi Voters of Liashko Voters of Poroshenko Voters of Tymoshenko
Yes, I am aware 44.7 48.8 21.8 38.9 41.2 43.9
I know something about it, but I'm not sure 28.9 39.5 43.3 35.2 42.2 37.9
No, I am not aware 21.9 8.1 26.8 7.4 12.8 14.4
It is not important for my choice 0.9 3.5 2.5 9.3 2.7 1.5
Hard to say 3.5 0.0 5.6 9.3 1.1 2.3

 

Are you aware of the proposals of the presidential candidate who you are going to vote for on the personnel appointments?

  Voters of Boiko Voters of Hrytsenko Voters of Zelenskyi Voters of Liashko Voters of Poroshenko Voters of Tymoshenko
Yes, I am aware 18.4 34.9 17.6 11.1 18.2 16.7
I know something about it, but I'm not sure 34.2 27.9 29.6 33.3 29.4 28.8
No, I am not aware 32.5 33.7 35.9 31.5 35.3 39.4
It is not important for my choice 6.1 3.5 8.1 13.0 8.6 6.1
Hard to say 8.8 0.0 8.8 11.1 8.6 9.1

 

In your opinion, will the candidate who you want to vote for enter the second round of the elections?

  Voters of Boiko Voters of Hrytsenko Voters of Zelenskyi Voters of Liashko Voters of Poroshenko Voters of Tymoshenko
Yes, for sure 35.1 40.7 70.1 24.1 73.3 71.2
Possibly 46.5 45.3 25.0 50.0 21.9 22.7
No 9.6 2.3 2.5 7.4 2.1 2.3
Hard to say 8.8 11.6 2.5 18.5 2.7 3.8

 

In your opinion, how the next election of the President of Ukraine will change the situation in the country?

  West Center South East
The situation will change considerably for the better 14.5 14.0 17.6 9.5
The situation will change a little bit for the better 54.5 42.0 35.6 27.5
The situation will change a little bit for the worse 5.5 6.1 7.8 10.4
The situation will change considerably for the worse 2.1 2.1 3.4 6.2
Nothing will change 14.3 17.9 13.2 20.4
Hard to say 9.0 17.9 22.4 26.1

 

In your opinion, how the next election of the President of Ukraine will change the situation in the country?

  Voters of Boiko Voters of Hrytsenko Voters of Zelenskyi Voters of Liashko Voters of Poroshenko Voters of Tymoshenko
The situation will change considerably for the better 14.9 11.6 21.1 20.4 21.4 26.5
The situation will change a little bit for the better 43.9 51.2 48.9 46.3 56.7 54.5
The situation will change a little bit for the worse 7.9 7.0 5.6 9.3 4.3 5.3
The situation will change considerably for the worse 2.6 0.0 1.4 3.7 0.5 0.8
Nothing will change 10.5 14.0 6.0 5.6 8.6 3.8
Hard to say 20.2 16.3 16.9 14.8 8.6 9.1

 



[1] Those candidates who have not received votes in the poll are not included in the table

 


28.3.2019
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