On April 9–14, 2019, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion poll. Data were collected from 2004 respondents living in 129 settlements in all regions of Ukraine (except for the AR of Crimea) with the method of personal interviewing. The sample was stochastic, 3-staged, with a quota selection on the last stage, and it is representative of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

In Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, the survey was conducted only in the territories that are controlled by the government of Ukraine.

The statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and for a design effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 3.3% — for indexes close to 50%, 2.8% — for indexes close to 25%, 2.0% — for indexes close to 10%, 1.4% — for indexes close to 5%.

Presentation          

Powers of the President of Ukraine

• The answers to the question «In your opinion, what powers should the President of Ukraine have?» were distributed as follows:

• The President has broad powers; He/she is the head of the government, and at the same time, he/she directs the activities of the government in all areas  – 36.8%;
• The President is the Commander in Chief, and he/she is responsible for the security and international relations. Other issues are duties of the Prime Minister – 40.8%
• The Prime Minister is the head of the government who directs the activities of the government in all areas. The president has symbolic powers and cannot interfere in the matters of internal and foreign policy – 7.1%;
• There is no need in the post of the President of Ukraine – 3%;
• Hard to say/denial from answering – 12.2%.

Attitude to public-political leaders

Respondents were asked the question “Do you know, have heard anything or read about him or her? IF “KNOW” What is your attitude toward him/her?“, about 12 public-political figures. The answers are presented in the table below (arranged by the balance (difference) of positive-negative attitude):  

Table 1

Attitude to public-political figures

Debate

• 41.9% of the Ukrainians believe that debate between the candidates should happen, another 26.7% consider it desirable but not compulsory (68.7% in total would like the debates to happen). The quarter of the Ukrainians (24.7%) consider the debates unnecessary, and 6.6% are not sure about their attitude or refused to answer.
• 50.6% the Ukrainians said that in case V.Zelenskyi participated in the debate, he would be sincere, 28.4% of the respondents do not think so (another 21% were undecided or refused to answer). At the same time, regarding P.Poroshenko, 19.3% believe he will be sincere in the debate, 63.1% do not think so (also, 17.7% have not decided yet or refused to answer).
• In general, 14.99% of respondents say that the debate will be decisive for their choice: they will eventually decide whom to vote for on the basis of the results of the debate. Another 25.3% argue that the results of the debate are rather important for them: they will take into account the results of the debate, but there are other important criteria that they consider deciding whom to vote for in the second round. At the same time, 51.3% of respondents said that the debate was not important for their choice whom to vote for. Another 8.4% have not decided yet or refused to answer.

Expected steps of the President in the first 100 days

• Answers to the question «Which ones of the following steps on the card would you like the next President to take in his/her first 100 days? Please select no more than 3 options» were distributed as follows:

• Reduce the utility rates – 39.1%;
• Submit to the Parliament bills on the removal of immunity from deputies, judges, and the President – 35.5%;
• Start/ accelerate the investigation of the most resonant corruption crimes – 32.4%;
• Start negotiations with Russia – 23.3%;
• Reduce salaries of top officials – 18.4%;
• Start negotiations with the EU and the USA about Donbas and Crimea – 16.4%;
• Accelerate the investigations of crimes against Maidan – 9.4%;
• Initiate the change in the system of parliamentary elections - the abolition of majoritarian elections and the transition to a proportional system with open lists – 8%;
• Put up for sale buildings, cars and other assets of the State Management of Affairs, which deals with the provision of the President – 5.5%;
• Initiate the restart of anti-corruption structures (NABU, CAP) – 5.2%;
• Arrest Russian assets in Ukraine  – 4.6%;
• Submit a bill on referendums in Ukraine to the parliament – 4.2%;
• Start the negotiations about joining the EU – 3.3%.

Second round of the elections of the President of Ukraine

• 54% of respondents said they would definitely vote to the direct question about voting on April 21. another 18.8% most likely will vote. Rather not or definitely not going to vote - 15.5%. Undecided or refused to answer - 11.7%.

If the elections were held in mid-April, then out of all respondents:

• 48.4% would vote for V.Zelenskyi;
• 17% – for P.Poroshenko;
• 1.6% – would spoil the ballot;
• 17.9% – have not decided whom to vote for;
• 8.8% – refused to say whom they are going to vote for;
• 6.3% – would not participate in voting.

Among those who are going to vote and decided with the choice:

• 72.2% would vote for V.Zelenskyi;
• 25.4% – for P.Poroshenko;
• 2.4% – would spoil the ballot.

• To the question about the probable winner of the elections, 57.2% said that would be V. Zelenskyi, 14.1% - P. Poroshenko. Another 28.7% of respondents have not decided with the choice or refused to answer the question.

Electoral moods of the population about the elections to the Verkhovna Rada

If the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine had been held in the middle of April, then the following shares of the population would have voted for the parties (rating 1. data from column 1 of table 2):

•  12.4%  - for the party “Sluha narodu (Servant of People)”,
•  7.5% – for the party “Opozytsiyna platforma- Za jyttia (Opposition platform – For Life)”,
•  6.6% – for the party “Block of Petro Poroshenko “Solidarnist (Solidarity)”,
•  5.8% – for the party “All-Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna (Motherland)”,
•  2.4% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsiia (Civil Position)”,
•  2.4% – for the party “Syla i chest (Strength and Honor)”,
•  2.3% – for the Radical party of Oleh Liashko,
•  2.2% – for the party “All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda (Freedom)”,
•  1.1% – for the party “Opozytsiynyi block (Opposition Block)”,
•  0.7% – for the party “Block of Sviatoslav Vakarchuk”,
•  0.6% – for the party “Union “Samopomich (Self-help)”,
•  0.5% – for the party “Nashi (Ours)”,
•  0.5% – for the party “UKROP”,
•  2.7% - for other parties in total,
•  1% – would have crossed out all the parties, spoilt the ballot,
•  5.1% – decided not to participate,
• 42.9% – have not decided whom to vote for,
•  3.1% – refused to answer the question.

Calculating the percentages in the relation to those who decided with the choice (actually, these are the closest indexes to the possible outcomes of the elections if it had been held in mid-April), there will be the following results. According to them, 6 parties have the highest chances to enter the parliament (rating 3. data of column 3 of table 2), and also there are 2 parties that have rating close to the entering barrier:

• 25.9%  - for the party “Sluha narodu (Servant of People)”,
• 15.7% – for the party “Opozytsiyna platforma- Za jyttia (Opposition platform – For Life)”,
• 13.9% – for the party “Block of Petro Poroshenko “Solidarnist (Solidarity)”,
• 12.1% – for the party “All-Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna (Motherland)”,
•  5.1% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsiia (Civil Position)”,
•  5% – for the party “Syla I Chest (Strength and Honor)”,
•  4.8% – for the Radical party of Oleh Liashko,
•  4.6% – for the party “All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda (Freedom)”,
•  2.3% – for the party “Opozytsiynyi block (Opposition Block)”,
•  1.5% – for the party “Block of Sviatoslav Vakarchuk”,
•  1.4% – for the party “Union “Samopomich (Self-help)”,
•  1.1% – for the party “Nashi (Ours)”,
•  1% – for the party “UKROP”,
•  5.6% - for other parties in total.

To ensure the correctness of comparison with other surveys, Table 2 contains three variants of party ratings: % of all respondents; % among those who are going to vote in elections; % of those going to vote and determined with the party.

Table 2

Ratings of parties at the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine

Addition 1. Formulations of the questions

 (% among respondents who are going to vote and decided with the choice)

Definitely will vote

Rather will vote

Just considering this option

HARD TO SAY

HARD TO SAY

(% among respondents who are going to vote and decided with the choice)

 (% among all respondents, Western region)

(% among all respondents, Central region)

(% among all respondents, South region)

(% among all respondents, Eastern region)

 (% among all respondents, Donbas region)