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Social and political attitudes of the population of Ukraine on the eve of the second round of the elections of the President of Ukraine: results of the telephone rolling sample survey of April 6-18, 2019 the last one before the second round of the presidential elections

In the period of April 6-18, KIIS conducted the so-called rolling sample survey. The survey was being conducted every day with the use of the CATI method and the randomized sample of mobile phone numbers. The sample is representative of the adult population of Ukraine (those aged 18 and above). The sample does not include the territories that are temporarily not under control of the authorities of Ukraine – the AR of Crimea, certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The design of the research was constructed in a way that allows obtaining representative results both for the entire array of collected responses and for every two days of the survey. The method of a "moving average" was used: for example, the survey started on April 6, that is, the first set of data analyzed is the one of April 5-6, the next set - of April 6-7, then - of April 7-8, etc. Thus, a new "portion" of data is introduced every day, but a sufficient for the analysis amount of sampling is maintained. In order to ensure the representativeness of the array as a whole and the arrays for the separate pairs of days, special statistical weights were constructed. It aligned the structure of arrays in accordance with official statistics by such parameters as region, type of settlement (city/village), gender, age. During the rolling sample survey, 2600 interviews were conducted (April 6-18). The statistical sampling error with a probability of 0.95 does not exceed 5%.

 

During the survey, respondents were asked whether they would vote in the second round of the elections on April 21 ("Tell me, please, are you going to vote in the second round of the presidential election, with Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Petro Poroshenko as candidates, that will take place on April 21?”) Those respondents who were going to take part in the elections were asked: "For whom of these candidates (Volodymyr Zelenskyi or Petro Poroshenko), will you most likely vote in the second round on April 21?".

 This is how the dynamics of candidates` ratings look like when the longer, 4 days, "waves" of the survey are analyzed (the sample size of such wave is 800 respondents, which makes the data more accurate).


 

The decrease in Zelenskyi's rating and the increase in Poroshenko's rating that had been observed on April 6-16 have stopped, the difference between their ratings even increased slightly over the past few days, but the difference is not significant.

Here is the distribution of respondents` answers to this question by two-days periods:

  April 6-7 April 7-8 April 8-9 April 9-10 April 10-11 April 11-12 April 12-13 April 13-14 April 14-15 April 15-16 April 16-17 April 17-18
Will vote for Volodymyr Zelenskyi  50.8  49.5  54.8  52.0  48.7  45.9  43.4  49.4  48.8  50.6  49.1  48.5
Will vote for Petro Poroshenko  21.9  19.6  17.8  21.1  21.9  22.4  24.6  25.4  30.0  27.1  23.5  22.9
Will spoil the ballot ,5 ,3 ,9  1.8  1.1  1.0  2.7  2.1 ,3 ,6  1.5  2.0
Will not participate in voting  6.2  3.8 ,6  1.4  1.2  1.7  2.0  1.0 ,2 ,2 ,1 ,4
Hard to say  20.5  26.8  25.9  23.6  27.1  28.9  27.3  22.1  20.6  21.4  25.8  26.2

 

Hereby is the distribution of answers given by those respondents who are going to vote and have already decided with the choice of a candidate.

  April 6-7 April 7-8 April 8-9 April 9-10 April 10-11 April 11-12 April 12-13 April 13-14 April 14-15 April 15-16 April 16-17 April 17-18
Will vote for Volodymyr Zelenskyi  69.9  71.6  75.5  70.8  69.0  67.2  63.8  66.0  61.9  65.1  67.6  67.9
Will vote for Petro Poroshenko  30.1  28.4  24.5  29.2  31.0  32.8  36.2  34.0  38.1  34.9  32.4  32.1

 

 

 

 

Also, all respondents were asked about their assessment of the actions and speeches of the presidential candidates: "Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Petro Poroshenko entered the second round of the presidential elections in Ukraine. During the time passed since the day of voting in the first round (Sunday, March 31), both of them carried out some actions and made their statements. How much do you approve or disapprove Volodymyr Zelenskyi's actions and statements? How much do you approve or disapprove of Petro Poroshenko's actions and statements?"

The assessment of actions and speeches of Volodymyr Zelenskyi:

  April 6-7 April 7-8 April 8-9 April 9-10 April 10-11 April 11-12 April 12-13 April 13-14 April 14-15 April 15-16 April 16-17 April 17-18
Totally approve  21.8  21.3  24.3  25.9  19.9  16.2  17.5  20.4  22.7  22.9  22.0  22.0
Rather approve  32.1  30.1  32.1  30.3  31.8  29.4  28.3  28.9  24.4  25.8  24.6  25.4
Rather disapprove  12.8  12.6  14.1  13.6  13.9  16.7  16.6  15.9  16.2  13.6  15.2  16.3
Totally disapprove  17.1  17.3  14.0  13.5  14.6  17.6  20.2  19.7  21.6  22.4  20.9  17.9
Hard to say, denial from answering  16.2  18.7  15.5  16.7  19.7  20.1  17.4  15.1  15.1  15.3  17.3  18.5

 

The assessment of actions and speeches of Petro Poroshenko:

  April 6-7 April 7-8 April 8-9 April 9-10 April 10-11 April 11-12 April 12-13 April 13-14 April 14-15 April 15-16 April 16-17 April 17-18
Totally approve  9.1  7.2  8.0  8.6  9.3  8.1  7.8  8.2  9.1  9.6  10.3  9.0
Rather approve  19.9  19.1  16.6  15.8  15.2  16.4  18.9  19.0  19.1  19.5  19.7  18.7
Rather disapprove  26.0  26.5  23.8  24.1  25.7  24.3  23.3  23.0  22.3  20.3  21.6  22.2
Totally disapprove  32.4  34.7  40.3  39.3  39.8  41.5  40.0  41.3  40.9  41.1  39.3  41.1
Hard to say, denial from answering  12.5  12.5  11.3  12.1  10.0  9.7  10.0  8.4  8.6  9.5  9.1  8.9

 

This is how the dynamics of evaluation of actions and statements of the candidates in the period from April 6 to April 16 looks like ("Approve" is the sum of responses "Totally approve" and "Rather approve"; "Disapprove" is the sum of answers "Rather disapprove" and "Totally disapprove").

 

Commentary of V.Paniotto, the CEO of KIIS

As proved by the results of the first round of the elections, data of usual household face-to-face survey are slightly more consistent with the results of the election than data of the telephone survey, however, the first approach does not allow studying the dynamics of processes. The brigades of interviewers receive tasks, and then they decide how to distribute the samples given – they may first go to the countryside or, vice versa, start the data collection in the city, etc. Let's say, if we conducted a study from April 9 to April  14. then the results would describe the situation not as of April  14. but for the entire period on average (i.e. 80% of interviews might have been conducted on April 9-12). The only way to study trends is a rolling research. The disadvantage of this approach is that studies that are conducted via mobile phones are representative for that 93% of the population who have mobile phones (due to this, there is a bigger error in forecasting the results of the elections).


18.4.2019
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