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Support ratings for political leaders and parties: May-June 2020

On May 24 – June 4, 2020, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted a public opinion poll using the method of CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers. The sample is representative of the adult population of Ukraine aged 18 and above. The sample does not include the territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the AR of Crimea, some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. In the course of the survey, 4,000 interviews were conducted. 

The statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and for design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 1.7% for indicators close to 50%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 25%, 1% - for indicators close to 10%, 0.8% - for indicators close to 5%, 0.4% - for indicators close to 1%. 

           

Electoral intentions of the population on the election of the President of Ukraine

If the election of the President of Ukraine were held in late May-early June, the population would vote for the candidates in the following way (rating 1, data from column 1 of Table 1) –

  • 25.7% would vote for Volodymyr Zelenskyi,
  • 11.1% – for Petro Poroshenko,
  •  9% – for Yurii Boiko,
  •  6% – for Yulia Tymoshenko,
  •  4.6% – for Ihor Smeshko,
  •  3% – for Anatolii Hrytsenko,
  •  3% – for Oleh Liashko,
  •  2.1% – for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk,
  •  1.4% – for Oleksandr Vilkul,
  •  For other candidates in total – 2.5%,
  •  2.6% – would cross out all the parties, spoil the ballot,
  • 16.2% – have not decided whom to vote yet,
  • 1.6% – refused to answer the question,
  • 11.3% – would not vote.

 

Đalculating the percentage in relation to those who decided with the choice (actually, these indicators are the closest to the possible election results, in case they were held in late May-early June), we obtain the following results (rating 3, data from column 3 of Table 1):

  • 37.6% would vote for Volodymyr Zelenskyi,
  • 16.2% – for Petro Poroshenko,
  •  13.2% – for Yurii Boiko,
  •  8.7% – for Yulia Tymoshenko,
  •  6.8% – for Ihor Smeshko,
  •  4.4% – for Anatolii Hrytsenko,
  •  4.4% – for Oleh Liashko,
  •  3% – for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk,
  •  2% – for Oleksandr Vilkul,
  •  For other candidates in total – 3.6%.

 

To ensure the correctness of the comparison with other surveys, Table 1 shows three options for party ratings: % among all respondents, % among those who are going to vote in the election, % among those who are going to vote and decided on a candidate.

 

Table 1

Ranking of candidates in the election of the President of Ukraine

100% in column Rating 1, % among all respondents Rating 2, % among those who are going to vote Rating 3, % among those who decided on a candidate
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 25.7 29.0 37.6
Petro Poroshenko 11.1 12.5 16.2
Yurii Boiko 9.0 10.2 13.2
Yuliia Tymoshenko 6.0 6.7 8.7
Ihor Smeshko 4.6 5.2 6.8
Anatolii Hrytsenko 3.0 3.4 4.4
Oleh Liashko 3.0 3.4 4.4
Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 2.1 2.3 3.0
Oleksandr Vilkul 1.4 1.6 2.0
Other candidate 2.5 2.8 3.6
Would not vote 11.3 --- ---
Would spoil the ballot 2.6 2.9 ---
Undecided 16.2 18.2 ---
Denial from answering 1.6 1.8 ---

 

            The survey that was conducted in late May-early June consisted of two independent samples (2,000 respondents in each sample), which were polled sequentially: the first sample was polled on May 24-31, the second sample – on May 31-June 4. This allows to analyze the ratings for the candidates separately for each of these samples. In addition, to analyze the dynamics, it is advisable to compare the current ratings of candidates with those based on the results of a survey previously conducted by KIIS on April 17-25. Below in Table 2, there is a comparison of the ratings of different surveys, including the dynamics of candidates` support. The asterisk (*) indicates the statistically significant difference in the ranking of candidates (i.e. one that goes beyond and cannot be explained by the sampling error).

 

Table 2

Dynamics of the ratings for the candidates in the election of the President of Ukraine, April-June 2020

100% in column April 17-25 (n=4024) late May-early June Difference
May 24-31 (n=2000) May 31 – June 4 (n=2000) Total: May 24 – June 4 (n=4000) Early June-April Total-April
All Decided All Decided All Decided All Decided All Decided All Decided
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 27.7 42.6 26.3 38.7 25.1 36.4 25.7 37.6 -2.7* -6.2* -2.0* -5.1*
Petro Poroshenko 9.7 14.9 10.6 15.6 11.5 16.8 11.1 16.2 +1.8* 1.9 +1.4* 1.3
Yurii Boiko 8.0 12.2 9.1 13.3 9.0 13.1 9.0 13.2 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.0
Yuliia Tymoshenko 6.3 9.7 5.6 8.3 6.3 9.2 6.0 8.7 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 -1.0
Ihor Smeshko 4.1 6.4 5.2 7.6 4.1 5.9 4.6 6.8 -0.1 -0.4 0.5 0.4
Anatolii Hrytsenko 2.8 4.3 2.6 3.8 3.5 5.1 3.0 4.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.1
Oleh Liashko 2.3 3.5 3.2 4.7 2.8 4.1 3.0 4.4 0.5 0.6 +0.8* +0.9*
Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 1.2 1.8 1.3 1.9 2.9 4.2 2.1 3.0 +1.7* +2.4* +0.9* +1.2*
Oleksandr Vilkul 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.9 1.5 2.1 1.4 2.0 +0.9* +1.3* +0.9* +1.2*
Other candidate 2.4 3.7 2.8 4.1 2.2 3.2 2.5 3.6 -0.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.1
Would not vote 8.5 --- 11.7 --- 10.9 --- 11.3 --- +2.4* --- +2.8* ---
Would spoil the ballot 3.6 --- 2.5 --- 2.6 --- 2.6 --- -1.0* --- -1.1* ---
Undecided 20.1 --- 15.6 --- 16.8 --- 16.2 --- -3.3* --- -4.0* ---
Denial from answering 2.7 --- 2.2 --- 1.0 --- 1.6 --- -1.7* --- -1.1* ---

 

 

Electoral intentions of the population regarding the election to the Verkhovna Rada

If the election to the Verkhovna Rada were held in late May-early June, the population would vote for the parties in the following way (rating 1, data from column 1 of Table 2) –

  • 17.1% would vote for the party “Sluha narodu (Servant of the People)”,
  • 10.8% – for the party “Opozytsiina platforma – Za jyttia (Opposition Platform – For Life)”,
  •  9.9% – for the party “Evropeiska solidarnist (European Solidarity)”,
  •  4.9% – for the All-Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna (Motherland)”,
  •  2.9% – for the party “Syla i chest (Power and Honor)”,
  •  2.9% – for the Party of Shariy,
  •  2.8% – for the Radical party of Oleh Liashko,
  •  2.3% – for the party “Holos (Voice)”,
  •  1.8% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsia (Civic Position)”
  •  1.6% – for the party “Ukrainska Stratehia Hroismana (Hroysman's Ukrainian Strategy)”,
  •  1.4% – for the party “Svoboda (Freedom)”,
  •  1% – for the party “Opozytsiinyi block (Opposition Block)”,
  •  0.9% – for the party “Samopomich (Self-help)”,
  •  0.5% – for the party “Natsionalnyi korpus (National Corps)”,
  • For other parties – 0.5% in total,
  •  3.3% – would cross out all the parties, spoil the ballot,
  • 19.4% – didn`t decide whom to vote for,
  •  1.6% – refused to answer the question,
  • 14.7% – would not vote.

 

Đalculating the percentage in relation to those who decided with the choice (actually, these indicators are the closest to the possible election results, in case they were held in late May-early June), we obtain the following results (rating 3, data from column 3 of Table 3):

  • 28% would vote for the party “Sluha narodu (Servant of the People)”,
  • 17.7% – for the party “Opozytsiina platforma – Za jyttia (Opposition Platform – For Life)”,
  •  16.2% – for the party “Evropeiska solidarnist (European Solidarity)”,
  •  8% – for the All-Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna (Motherland)”,
  •  4.7% – for the party “Syla i chest (Power and Honor)”,
  •  4.7% – for the Party of Sharii,
  •  4.5% – for the Radical party of Oleh Liashko,
  •  3.8% – for the party “Holos (Voice)”,
  •  2.9% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsia (Civic Position)”
  •  2.6% – for the party “Ukrainska Strategia Hroismana (Hroysman's Ukrainian Strategy)”,
  •  2.3% – for the party “Svoboda (Freedom)”,
  •  1.6% – for the party “Opozytsiinyi block (Opposition Block)”,
  •  1.4% – for the party “Samopomich (Self-help)”,
  •  0.7% – for the party “Natsionalnyi korpus (National Corps)”,
  • For other parties – 0.8% in total.

 

To ensure the correctness of the comparison with other surveys, Table 2 shows three options for party ratings: % among all respondents, % among those who are going to vote in the election, % among those who are going to vote and decided on a party.

 

Table 3

Ratings for the parties in the election to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine

  Rating 1,% among all respondents Rating 2,% among those who are going to vote Rating 3,% among those who decided on a party
“Sluha narodu (Servant of the People)” 17.1 20.1 28.0
“Opozytsiina platforma – Za jyttia (Opposition Platform – For Life)” 10.8 12.7 17.7
“Evropeiska solidarnist (European Solidarity)” 9.9 11.6 16.2
“Batkivshchyna (Motherland)” 4.9 5.7 8.0
“Syla i chest (Power and Honor)” 2.9 3.4 4.7
Party of Sharii 2.9 3.3 4.7
Radical party 2.8 3.2 4.5
“Holos (Voice)” 2.3 2.7 3.8
“Hromadianska pozytsia (Civic Position)” 1.8 2.1 2.9
“Ukrainska Strategia Hroismana (Hroysman's Ukrainian Strategy 1.6 1.8 2.6
“Svoboda (Freedom)” 1.4 1.6 2.3
“Opozytsiinyi block (Opposition Block)” 1.0 1.2 1.6
“Samopomich (Self-help)” 0.9 1.0 1.4
“Natsionalnyi korpus (National Corps)” 0.5 0.5 0.7
Other party 0.5 0.5 0.8
Would not vote 14.7 --- ---
Would spoil the ballot 3.3 3.9 ---
Undecided 19.4 22.7 ---
Denial from answering 1.6 1.9 ---

 

Table 4, by analogy with presidential ratings, compares party ratings of different time periods. 

Table 4

Dynamics of the ratings the parties in the election to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, April-June 2020 

100% in column April 17-25 (n=4024) late May-early June Difference
May 24-31 (n=2000) May 31 – June 4 (n=2000) Total: May 24 – June 4 (n=4000) Early June-April Total-April
All Decided All Decided All Decided All Decided All Decided All Decided
“Servant of the People” 18.5 32.6 17.3 28.7 16.9 27.4 17.1 28.0 -1.6 -5.2* -1.4 -4.6*
“OPZJ” 9.0 15.8 10.6 17.5 11.0 17.8 10.8 17.7 2.1* 2.1 1.8* 1.9
“ES” 8.7 15.2 9.5 15.7 10.3 16.7 9.9 16.2 1.7* 1.5 1.3 1.0
“Motherland” 6.8 12.0 5.0 8.4 4.7 7.7 4.9 8.0 -2.1* -4.3* -1.9* -4.0*
“Power and Honor” 1.9 3.4 3.2 5.2 2.6 4.2 2.9 4.7 0.7 0.8 1.0* 1.3*
Party of Sharii 2.1 3.6 2.9 4.9 2.8 4.5 2.9 4.7 0.7 0.9 0.8* 1.1
RPL 1.5 2.7 2.8 4.6 2.7 4.4 2.8 4.5 1.2* 1.8* 1.2* 1.9*
“Voice” 2.0 3.5 2.2 3.6 2.5 4.1 2.3 3.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3
“Civic Position” 1.4 2.5 1.6 2.6 1.9 3.1 1.8 2.9 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4
“Ukrainian strategy” 0.9 1.7 1.6 2.7 1.5 2.4 1.6 2.6 0.6* 0.8 0.6* 0.9*
“Freedom” 1.2 2.0 1.1 1.8 1.7 2.8 1.4 2.3 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.2
“Opposition Block” 1.0 1.7 1.1 1.8 0.9 1.4 1.0 1.6 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1
“Self-help” 0.8 1.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.9 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1
“National Corps” 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Other party 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.8 -0.3 -0.6 -0.2 -0.4
Would not vote 10.9 --- 14.5 --- 14.8 --- 14.7 --- 3.9* --- 3.8* ---
Would spoil the ballot 4.8 --- 3.0 --- 3.6 --- 3.3 --- -1.2* --- -1.5* ---
Undecided 24.5 --- 20.0 --- 18.8 --- 19.4 --- -5.7* --- -5.1* ---
Denial from answering 3.0 --- 2.2 --- 0.9 --- 1.6 --- -2.0* --- -1.4* ---

 

 

Table 5 shows how people who support a particular candidate in the presidential election would vote in the parliamentary election.

 

Table 5

Which parties people who support a particular candidate in the presidential election would vote for

100% in column In the presidential election they support:
Volodymyr Zelenskyi Petro Poroshenko Yurii Boiko Yuliia Tymoshenko Ihor Smeshko Anatolii Hrytsenko Oleh Liashko Sviatoslav Vakarchuk Oleksandr Vilkul Other candidate Would not vote Would spoil the ballot Undecided
“Servant of the People” 57.9 0.5 2.8 2.6 4.0 4.7 9.9 7.2 3.1 1.7 2.5 2.4 3.4
“OPZJ” 3.4 0.5 76.1 4.7 2.7 2.9 3.7 2.8 20.8 19.6 2.2 4.7 7.2
“ES” 0.4 76.7 0.0 1.4 8.8 2.0 0.9 9.4 1.6 3.0 0.4 0.7 2.4
“Motherland” 1.4 1.7 1.6 57.5 2.1 4.2 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.9 1.9
“Power and Honor” 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.9 47.4 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2
Party of Sharii 1.5 0.0 3.2 0.6 1.3 1.6 0.8 0.0 19.5 21.5 2.5 8.6 4.3
RPL 1.6 0.3 0.5 1.9 2.5 1.4 58.3 0.0 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.1
“Voice” 1.5 3.3 0.0 2.2 1.0 6.1 1.2 41.5 0.0 3.4 1.0 0.0 0.5
“Civic Position” 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.8 1.4 41.4 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3
“Ukrainian strategy” 1.4 2.3 0.0 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 11.5 0.5 0.0 2.7
“Freedom” 0.3 2.0 0.0 2.1 1.0 1.4 0.9 9.7 0.0 10.9 0.6 0.4 1.9
“Opposition Block” 0.4 0.0 2.5 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.2
“Self-help” 0.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.4 0.9 1.1 0.0 4.1 0.7 0.0 1.1
“National Corps” 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.5 1.4 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
Other party 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.3 0.0 0.9
Would not vote 8.5 1.7 3.5 7.4 4.6 5.8 3.3 6.0 8.5 6.2 81.1 9.3 7.4
Would spoil the ballot 1.3 1.0 1.5 0.4 3.1 5.2 0.6 7.4 0.7 2.8 1.6 55.8 3.3
Undecided 15.5 7.9 6.8 15.8 15.7 15.8 11.7 11.8 5.3 4.4 4.8 16.9 59.8
Denial from answering 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.0 3.3 0.6 0.0 1.1

 

 

Addition 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

Imagine, please, that the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine are being held now, and the following parties participated: [READ OUT THE LIST. READ PARTIES RANDOMLY. BE SURE TO READ THE LEADERS]. Would you vote? IF “YES”: Which party out of this list would you vote for? ONE ANSWER
 
100% in column Ukraine in general West[1] Center South East
“Sluha narodu (Servant of the People)” (Kornienko) 17.1 14.6 16.7 21.4 15.3
“Opozytsiina platforma – Za jyttia (Opposition Platform – For Life)” (Boiko, Medvedchuk, Rabinovych) 10.8 5.6 7.1 15.6 22.0
“Evropeiska solidarnist (European Solidarity)” (Poroshenko) 9.9 15.0 11.4 4.7 5.4
“Batkivshchyna (Motherland)” (Tymoshenko) 4.9 4.3 6.3 4.4 3.2
“Party of Sharii” 2.9 1.4 1.3 4.6 6.8
“Syla i chest (Power and Honor)” (Smeshko) 2.9 2.6 4.0 2.7 0.8
Radical party (Liashko) 2.8 3.3 3.5 2.2 0.9
“Holos (Voice)” (Vakarchuk) 2.3 3.7 1.9 1.0 3.2
“Hromadianska pozytsia (Civic Position)” (Hrytsenko) 1.8 2.5 2.0 1.1 1.0
“Ukrainska Strategia Hroismana (Hroysman's Ukrainian Strategy)” 1.6 1.3 3.2 0.4 0.1
“Svoboda (Freedom)” (Tiahnybok) 1.4 2.8 1.5 0.3 0.1
“Opozytsiinyi block (Opposition Block)” (Vilkul) 1.0 0.3 0.6 1.7 2.0
“Samopomich (Self-help)” (Sadovyi) 0.9 2.2 0.5 0.4 0.0
“Natsionalnyi korpus (National Corps)” (Biletskyi) 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8
Other party 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.4
WOULD NOT VOTE (DO NOT READ OUT) 14.7 13.1 15.9 15.0 14.0
WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT/WOULD CROSS OUT ALL THE PARTIES (DO NOT READ OUT) 3.3 3.2 2.6 4.4 3.2
DIFFICULT TO SAY, UNDECIDED (DO NOT READ OUT) 19.4 21.7 18.8 17.7 19.5
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING (DO NOT READ OUT) 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.6 1.4

 

 

(% among respondents who are going to vote and decided on the party)

100% in column Ukraine in general West Center South East
“Sluha narodu (Servant of the People)” (Kornienko) 28.0 24.2 27.3 34.9 24.8
“Opozytsiina platforma – Za jyttia (Opposition Platform – For Life)” (Boiko, Medvedchuk, Rabinovych) 17.7 9.3 11.7 25.4 35.6
“Evropeiska solidarnist (European Solidarity)” (Poroshenko) 16.2 24.9 18.6 7.7 8.7
“Batkivshchyna (Motherland)” (Tymoshenko) 8.0 7.1 10.4 7.3 5.2
“Party of Sharii” 4.7 2.3 2.1 7.4 10.9
“Syla i chest (Power and Honor)” (Smeshko) 4.7 4.3 6.6 4.4 1.4
Radical party (Liashko) 4.5 5.4 5.7 3.6 1.4
“Holos (Voice)” (Vakarchuk) 3.8 6.1 3.1 1.6 5.1
“Hromadianska pozytsia (Civic Position)” (Hrytsenko) 2.9 4.1 3.2 1.8 1.6
“Ukrainska Strategia Hroismana (Hroysman's Ukrainian Strategy)” 2.6 2.2 5.2 0.6 0.1
“Svoboda (Freedom)” (Tiahnybok) 2.3 4.7 2.4 0.6 0.2
“Opozytsiinyi block (Opposition Block)” (Vilkul) 1.6 0.6 1.0 2.8 3.1
“Samopomich (Self-help)” (Sadovyi) 1.4 3.7 0.9 0.6 0.0
“Natsionalnyi korpus (National Corps)” (Biletskyi) 0.7 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.2
Other party 0.8 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.7

 


Imagine, please, that the presidential elections are being held now, and the following candidates participated: [READ OUT THE CANDIDATES RANDOMLY]. Would you vote? IF “YES”: Which candidate out of this list would you vote for? ONE ANSWER  (% among all respondents)

100% in column Ukraine in general West Center South East
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 25.7 21.0 25.8 32.0 23.3
Petro Poroshenko 11.1 16.6 12.6 5.2 6.9
Yurii Boiko 9.0 4.0 5.6 13.1 20.7
Yuliia Tymoshenko 6.0 6.7 7.4 4.1 4.3
Ihor Smeshko 4.6 4.7 6.2 3.7 2.3
Anatolii Hrytsenko 3.0 4.3 3.5 1.6 1.8
Oleh Liashko 3.0 4.2 2.9 2.6 1.7
Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 2.1 4.0 1.3 1.0 2.2
Oleksandr Vilkul 1.4 0.3 0.5 3.7 1.7
Other candidate 2.5 1.5 3.4 2.3 2.6
WOULD NOT VOTE (DO NOT READ OUT) 11.3 9.8 12.4 11.6 11.1
WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT/WOULD CROSS OUT ALL THE CANDIDATES (DO NOT READ OUT) 2.6 2.1 1.8 3.9 3.1
DIFFICULT TO SAY, UNDECIDED (DO NOT READ OUT) 16.2 19.1 15.1 14.0 16.9
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING (DO NOT READ OUT) 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.4

 

(% among respondents who are going to vote and decided on the candidate)

100% in column Ukraine in general West Center South East
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 37.6 31.2 37.3 46.3 34.6
Petro Poroshenko 16.2 24.6 18.2 7.5 10.2
Yurii Boiko 13.2 5.9 8.1 19.0 30.7
Yuliia Tymoshenko 8.7 9.9 10.7 5.9 6.4
Ihor Smeshko 6.8 7.0 8.9 5.3 3.5
Anatolii Hrytsenko 4.4 6.4 5.0 2.3 2.7
Oleh Liashko 4.4 6.3 4.2 3.7 2.5
Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 3.0 5.9 1.9 1.4 3.2
Oleksandr Vilkul 2.0 0.5 0.7 5.3 2.5
Other candidate 3.6 2.2 4.9 3.3 3.8


[1] Composition of macro-regions: Western macro-region - Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Zakarpattia, Khmelnytsky, Chernivtsi oblasts (regions); Central macroregion - Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Kyiv oblasts (regions); Southern macroregion - Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Odesa oblasts (regions); Eastern macroregion – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv oblasts (regions).


11.6.2020
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