The press release was prepared by Volodymyr Paniotto

From November 29 to December 9, 2023, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus". By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting), 1,031 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR of Crimea) were interviewed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived on the territory of Ukraine (within the boundaries controlled by the authorities of Ukraine until February 24, 2022). The sample did not include residents of territories that were not temporarily controlled by the authorities of Ukraine until February 24, 2022 (AR of Crimea, Sevastopol, certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts), and the survey was not conducted with citizens abroad.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) did not exceed 3.4% for indicators close to 50%, 3.0% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 5%.

Under conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. KIIS previously cited factors that can affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions. And in general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative for the population of Ukraine living in the territory under the control of the Government, and allow a fairly reliable analysis of public moods of the population.

KIIS conducts a study of the population's attitude to sociological surveys once a year, in December. The December 2023 survey showed that 47% of respondents trust the data of sociological organizations that have been working for a long time, 7% do not trust it, and others do not have a definite opinion on this matter. The dynamics of changes in trust and distrust of sociological centers are shown in graph 1.

Graph 1. Dynamics of the level of trust and the level of distrust in sociological centers from 2002 to 2023., %

 As we can see, the level of trust in the results of sociological surveys of organizations that have been working for a long time and publish the results of their research among the population of Ukraine over the past 20 years first significantly increased (from 36% in 2002 to 47% in 2004), and then remained more or less stable with some fluctuations (49% plus or minus 2%) until 2016, but then began to decline and in 2021 decreased to 37%. 

However, data for 2022 and 2023 show significant changes in public opinion. In 2022, the level of trust in the results of sociological surveys increased to 42%, and in 2023 - to 47%. At the same time, distrust showed a downward trend, stabilizing at 7% in 2023. This jump in trust can be explained by the growing need of the public for reliable information in times of crisis. It can also be one of the manifestations of "grouping around the flag" - increasing trust in the authorities and social institutions during the war.

The dynamics of changes can be seen more clearly in graph 2.

 Graph 2. The balance of trust and distrust in sociological centers (the percentage of those who trust, minus the percentage of those who distrust) from 2002 to 2023.  

We see an increase in the trust balance, a stable period and a drop from 36% to 14% in 2021. After the start of full-scale war, the balance of trust and distrust regained its position, increasing from +14% in 2021 to +34% in 2022 and to +40% in 2023.

The balance of trust and distrust recovered its positions, increasing from +14% in 2021 to +34% in 2022 and to +40% in 2023, reflecting the growth of trust in these difficult times. These changes underscore the importance of public opinion surveys as a tool for measuring and understanding public opinion in times of public trial.

Annex

Do you trust the results of sociological surveys of organizations that have been working and publishing the results of their research for a long time? % of respondents