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Electoral intentions of the population of district 83 (Ivano-Frankivsk city): Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine

In a period of October 1 - 10, 2014 Kiev International Institute of Sociology conducted the public opinion survey in a district ¹83 by the customer order. The sample was random with quota selection at the last stage and is representative for the population of district 83 aged 18 and above, 610 respondents were personally interviewed.

Statistical sample deviation (with probability of 0.95 without design-effect) does not exceed:

4,1% — for index close to 50%;
3,6% — for index close to 25%;
2,5% — for index close to 10%;
1,9% — for index close to 5%.

If the elections to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine through the majority system took place in the middle of October, the following results for the population of the district aged 18 and above would be observed:

  • 25,6% would vote for the candidate from the political party “Block of Petro Poroshenko” – O. Shevchenko;

  • 12,6% - for the candidate from the Ukrainian Union "Svoboda" – A. Grymaliuk;

  • 12,6% - for the candidate from the political party “Syla liudey” – P. Shkutyak;

  • 4,8% - for the candidate from the political party “Samopomich” – V. Druk;

  • 3,1% - for the candidate from the political party “Gromadyanska pozyciya” – V. Chornous;

  • 3,0% - for the candidate from the Radical party of O. Lyashko – S. Paliychuk;

  • 1,1% - for the candidate from the Ukrainian Union "Batkivschyna" – R. Tereshko;

  • 0,7% - for the candidate from the political party “Narodnyi front” – M. Nonyak;

  • 0,2% - for the independent candidate – M. Boichuk;

  • 1,5% would spoil the ballot;

  • 3,3% would not participate in the vote;

  • 31,0% have not decided yet whom to vote for;

  • 0,7% refused to respond.

 

Therefore, if the parliamentary elections through the majority system took place in the middle of October and those, who has not decided yet, did not come to the elections, about 64% of voters would participate and their votes would be distributed in the following way:

  • 40,2% would vote for the candidate from the political party “Block of Petro Poroshenko” – O. Shevchenko;

  • 19,8% - for the candidate from the Ukrainian Union "Svoboda" – A. Grymaliuk;

  • 19,8% - for the candidate from the political party “Syla liudey” – P. Shkutyak;

  • 7,5% - for the candidate from the political party “Samopomich” – V. Druk;

  • 4,9% - for the candidate from the political party “Gromadyanska pozyciya” – V. Chornous;

  • 4,6% - for the candidate from the Radical party of O. Lyashko – S. Paliychuk;

  • 1,8% - for the candidate from the Ukrainian Union "Batkivschyna" – R. Tereshko;

  • 1,0% - for the candidate from the political party “Narodnyi front” – M. Nonyak;

  • 0,3% - for the independent candidate – M. Boychuk.

 

Addition

The question about nominal parliamentary elections through the majority system was asked as follows:

Whom would you vote for on the elections on October 26, 2014, if the list of candidates was like this one?

 

  % of all citizens aged 18 and above % of those, who is ready to participate and has decided whom to vote for
BOYCHUK Mykhailo (independent candidate) 0.2 0.3
GRYMALIUK Andriy (UU "Svoboda") 12.6 19.8
DRUK Vasyl (“Samopomich”) 4.8 7.5
NONYAK Mykhailo (“Narodnyi front”) 0.7 1.0
PALIYCHUK Sergiy (“Radical party of O. Lyashko”) 3.0 4.6
TERESHKO Ruslan (UU "Batkivschyna") 1.1 1.8
CHORNOUS Volodymyr  (“Gromadyanska pozyciya”) 3.1 4.9
SHKUTYAK Petro (“Syla liudey”) 12.6 19.8
SHEVCHENKO Oleksandr (Block of Petro poroshenko”) 25.6 40.2
WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT 1.5 ---
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE 3.3 ---
DIULT TO ANSWER 31.0 ---
REFUSAL FROM RESPONSE 0.7 ---

13.10.2014
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