The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

During February 17-27, 2025, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted a public opinion survey of Kyiv residents. By the method of telephone interviews using a computer (computer-assistedtelephoneinterviews, CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with subsequent statistical weighting), 805 respondents living in all districts of Kyiv were surveyed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) residents of the capital who, at the time of the survey, were living and registered in Kyiv.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and without taking into account the design effect) did not exceed 3.5% for indicators close to 50%, 3.1% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1% for indicators close to 10%, 1.6% for indicators close to 5%.

The survey conducted is the third wave. The first wave (using the same questionnaire) was conducted on October 12-16, 2023, the second wave (also using the same questionnaire) was conducted on April 23-May 1, 2024.

In wartime conditions, in addition to the above-mentioned formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. There are various factors that can affect the quality of the results in "wartime" conditions, which were previously presented by KIIS. In general, we believe that the results obtained still retain a high level of representativeness and allow for a fairly reliable analysis of the public moods of the capital's population.

Kyiv residents remain optimistic about Ukraine's victory in the war, but it is becoming more restrained. Thus, among Kyiv residents, 77% believe in Ukraine's victory. In May 2024, the figure was 85%, which is only slightly higher than now. However, there is a more noticeable decrease - from 58% to 44% - of those who are absolutely convinced of Ukraine's victory. At the same time, the share of those who believe in Russia's victory is 5% (in May 2024 - 3%). Undecided - 18% (in May 2024 - 11%)

Graph 1. How do you feel, Ukraine or Russia will ultimately win the war?

Respondents were also asked how long they thought the war would last. Compared to May 2024, the number of those who believe the war will last more than a year has decreased from 66% to 51%. At the same time, the number of those who believe the war will last up to 1 year has increased from 24% to 38% (mostly answers were about six months to a year).

Graph2. How much time do you think it will take until the war ends?

In case of expectations for changes in the next 12 months in Ukraine and Kyiv, the views of Kyiv residents have hardly changed compared to May 2024. So, regarding changes in Ukraine, 50% expect changes for the better, 30% expect changes for the worse, and another 16% expect no changes (in May 2024, the indicators were, respectively, 51%, 31%, and 16%).

Regarding changes in Kyiv, 45% expect changes for the better, 22% expect changes for the worse, and 29% expect no changes (in May 2024, the figures were 48%, 28%, and 22%, respectively).

Graph 3. What changes do you expect in general over the next 12 months …?

Currently, there are no elections planned in Kyiv and it is unknown who could potentially run for mayor of the capital. Respondents were offered a list of 9 people who could be participants in the local race (and the respondent could also name their own option). As can be seen, the current mayor of the city, V. Klychko, would receive the most support with such a list of participants - 32% among all respondents would vote for him, which is 54.5% among those who have decided on their choice. Next with approximately the same support (the difference is within the margin of error) are A. Illenko (6% among all and 10% among those who have decided on their choice), M. Poroshenko (5% and 8.5%), M. Tomenko (4% and 6%). Next is I. Vereshchuk with indicators, respectively, 2% and 3.5% and O. Donii with indicators, respectively, 1.5% and 3%. The remaining candidates (O. Tkachenko, S. Husovskyi, M. Pozhyvanov) have support of no more than 1% among all respondents and no more than 2% among those who have decided.

At the same time, it is important to note that 26% of all respondents did not object to participating in the vote, but were undecided as to who they would vote for.

Compared to May 2024, the candidate rating has practically not changed and almost all changes are within the margin of error.

Table 1. Please imagine that the war has ended and the elections for the mayor of Kyiv are taking place, in which the following candidates are participating: … . Would you or would you not participate in the elections? IF "YES": Which candidate would you vote for?

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

Among the residents of Kyiv, as among the population of the country, the same trend is observed, that optimism persists, but is clearly restrained. However, it is important that the majority of the population - despite the difficult period - retains faith in a better future for the country and the city.

The priority remains, of course, achieving success in the war, the people of Kyiv are participants in the resistance to the enemy and believe that Ukraine will be able to win.    

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from questionnaire

How do you feel, Ukraine or Russia will ultimately win the war?

How much time do you think it will take until the war ends?

What changes do you expect in general over the next 12 months …?

• In Ukraine
• In Kyiv

Although it's too early to talk about it now, we would like to know about the current sympathies of Kyiv residents.

В1. Please imagine that the war is over and the Kyiv mayoral elections are taking place, with the following candidates participating: [READ IN A DIFFERENT ORDER]. Would you or wouldnot participate in the elections? IF "YES": Which candidate would you vote for? ONE ANSWER