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Public opinion of the population of Ukraine: Parliamentary Elections 2014 September

A national survey of public opinion in Ukraine was conducted by the "Democratic Initiatives of Ilko Kucheriv" together with Kyiv International Institute of Sociology since 12 to 21 of September 2014. The survey was conducted in 110 localities in all regions of Ukraine, in addition to the AR Crimea and the Luhansk region. During the survey in the Luhansk region there were intense military action, so at the expense of Luhansk region it was increased the quota for Donetsk region, which in many ways is only little different from the population of Luhansk region. There were collected 2035 questionnaires. The error does not exceed 2.2%.

The survey Fund "Democratic initiatives of Ilko Kucheriv" was funded by the MATRA program of the Netherlands Embassy in Ukraine.

For comparison, data of nationwide survey conducted by the Fund "Democratic initiatives of Ilko Kucheriv" with the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology parliamentary elections in September 2012 is brought on.

 

  • There are 65% of the population who are going to take part in the parliamentary elections - 12% less than it was on the eve of the 2012 election. There are significant regional differences in the willingness of voters go to the elections. The largest percentage of those who agreed to participate in the voting - in the West (88%) and Central (76%) regions, much less willingness to participate in the elections - in the South (57%) and East (59%) regions, and on Donbas volunteered to participate in the elections only 23.5% of residents.

  • The main reason for not participating in the elections is, as usual, that citizens do not see any political party or candidate for whom it would be worth voting for - it said about 34% of those who are not going to vote. Like two years ago, 21% of people explain their non-participation in the elections that their lives do not depend on election and the same - that the elections would not change anything, because Parliament really does not solve anything. However, compared with the elections of 2012, more than twice of the percentage of those who explained their refusal to participate in the election because of disbelief in the fairness of the elections (from 25% to 13%), and decreased the number of those who are not interested in politics (from 16% to 10%).  

  • The main motive to participate in elections - a feeling of civic duty (61%). And also what is stable on the second place - among the causes of participation in the elections - the fear that someone else can use voice for the missing person.  

  • At the time of the survey a third of voters (33%) who were going to take part in the elections, have not decided for whom to vote. In this situation, if all parties were separate in those elections, the Party Block Poroshenko has got 27% of the vote, Radical Party - 6.2%, the party "Batkivshchyna" - 5.5%, the party "Civil Position" - 4.6%. However, given to the large number of those who have not yet decided on the choice, "Civil Position", "National Front" and "Strong Ukraine" have a good chance to overcome the threshold of the parties; the parties 'Soboda' and Communist Party of Ukraine preserve such possibilities as well.

  • Parties, which have won 2012 and entered the parliament, lost most of their adherents. The most "faithful" to their choice were the supporters of the Communist Party of Ukraine - among them 37% are ready to vote for the Communist Party, among the remaining 13% would vote for the Bloc Poroshenko, 19% undecided and 22% would not go to the elections. Among the former voters of the party "Batkivshchyna" there are 15% of the voters whor are ready to repeat the choice; the remaining 33% chose Block Poroshenko, 7% - the National Front, 9% - Radical Party, 24% were undecided and 3% would not go to the elections . The former voters of "UDAR" only 9% would vote for this political party again, and the rest - 38% for Block Poroshenko, 7% - for Civil Position, 24% have not  decided yet, and 5% would not go to the elections. Among the former voters of the party "Svoboda" there are 24% of voters who are ready to repeat his choice and the remaining 27% would vote for the Bloc Poroshenko, 9% - for the Lyashko Radical Party, 5% - for the Right Sector, and 23% have not decided yet. But the most of its supporters have lost the Party of Regions. Only 3% again would vote for this party; 11% would vote for the Bloc Poroshenko, 5% - for Communist Party of Ukraine, 27% have not decided yet and 35% iwould not go to the elections at all.    

 

The research table of dimensional distributions

Are you going to participate in parliamentary elections which are going to be held on October 26, 2014?

  September-2012 September -2014
Absolutely yes 56.7 46.1
Perhaps yes 21.3 18.9
Perhaps no 3.8 9.1
For sure not  13.9 17.8
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY 4.3 8.1

 

If you are not going to vote, then tell why? Please select not more than two reasons. NOT MORE THEN TWO VARIANTS

  September -2012 September -2014
I would not have such possibility (not located at the place of the elections, on election day will be busy, etc.)  8.8 4.5
I do not care about these elections, because my life does not depend on it 20.4 20.7
I do not see any candidate or party, who would be worth voting 30.7 34.4
The elections would not change anything, because the Parliament really does not solve anything 19.1 20.9
I am nor interesting in the politics 16.3 10.2
I do not believe that the elections would be held fair 25.4 13.1
Other 5.3 6.2
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY 4.1 3.3

 

If you are going to vote, then tell why? Please select not more than two reasons. NOT MORE THEN TWO VARIANTS

  September -2012 September -2014
Participation in elections - the duty of every citizen 57.2 60.6
I have got used to participate in elections 18 14.8
Among the candidates and parties are the ones which I would like to support 17.3 14.5
Participation in elections - an opportunity to change the situation in my town (village) 14 14.4
I do not want that someone else could take advantage of my vote  26 24.3
I am interested to participate in these "competition" because I want to know who would win. 2.9 1.9
Other 0.5 1.1
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY 2.1 4.5

 

If the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine would be held next Sunday, would you participate in it? IF «YES». And what would be your choice if these parties take part in the elections?

  All population those who are going to participate in the elections
The Party Block Poroshenko (Yu.Lutsenko) 18.3 26.9
Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko ) 2.1 3.0
The Party «Batkivshchyna» (Yu.Tymoshenko) 3.6 5.5
The Party «Volia» (Ye.Soboliev) 0.1 0.15
The Party «Civil Position» (A.Grytsenko) 3.2 4.6
The Party «National Front» (À.Yatseniuk) 2.7 3.9
The Party «The Union Samopomich» (À.Sadovyi) 1.2 1.7
The Party «Right Sector» (D. Yarosh) 0.7 0.9
The Party of Regions (V.Rybak) 0.8 0.9
The Party Progress of Ukraine (Yu.Miroshnychenko) 0.3 0.2
The Party «Svoboda» (Î.Tiagnybok) 2.2 3.3
The Party «Strong Ukraine» (S.Tihipko) 2.4 2.8
The Party «UDAR» of Vatali Klychko 2 2.8
The Party «Ukraine-Ahead!» (N.Korolevska) 0.3 0.4
The Party «Ukraine of Future» (S. Olijnyk) 0 0.0
The Party «Centre» (V.Rabinovych) 0.8 1.3
Lyashko Radical Party 4.8 6.2
Social Party of Ukraine (M. Rudkovsky) 0.2 0.2
For the other party 0.6 0.7
I WOULD CROSSED OUT ALL POLITICAL PARTIES IN THE BULLETIN / SPOILED THE BULLETIN 2 1.5
I WOULD NOT TAKE PART IN THE ELECTIONS 22.5 -
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY 29 32.8

 

Now parties try to agree on a mergering together to go to the elections. How would you vote if the list of parties were the following associations:

  All population  those who are going to participate in the elections
The Party Block Poroshenko (Yu.Lutsenko) + «National Front» (À.Yatseniuk)+ «UDAR» of Vatali Klychko 23.1 33.4
The Party «Svoboda» (Î.Tiagnybok)+«Right Sector» (D. Yarosh) 2.2 2.9
The Party «Civil Position» (A.Grytsenko) + The Party «Democratic Al’ians» (V.Gatsko) 2.8 3.8
The Party of Regions (V.Rybak)+ The Party «Strong Ukraine» (S.Tihipko)+ The Party Progress of Ukraine (Yu.Miroshnychenko) 3.1 3.4
The Party «Batkivshchyna» (Yu.Tymoshenko) 3.3 5.1
Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko ) 1.9 2.5
The Party «The Union Samopomich» (À.Sadovyi) 1.3 1.8
Lyashko Radical Party 4.7 6.3
The Party «Centre» (V.Rabinovych) 1.2 1.7
Social Party of Ukraine (M. Rudkovsky) 0.2 0.2
The Party «Ukraine-Ahead!» (N.Korolevska) 0.5 0.4
The Party «Ukraine of Future» (S. Olijnyk)) 0 0.0
For the other party 0.75 0.75
I WOULD CROSSED OUT ALL POLITICAL PARTIES IN THE BULLETIN / SPOILED THE BULLETIN 2.1 1.3
I WOULD NOT TAKE PART IN THE ELECTIONS 22.1 0.7
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY 30.9 35.4

 


26.9.2014
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