Electoral intentions of voters of Ukraine in parliamentary elections
KIIS conducted nationwide poll during the period of February 10–19, 2012. 4006 respondents were interviewed; the research covered all regions of Ukraine (including the city of Kyiv) and Crimea; sample was random and representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 years and older.
Statistical sampling error (with probability 0.95, excluding design-effect) does not exceed 1.6% for index close to 50%, 1.3% — index close to 25%, 0.9% — index close to 10%, 0.7% — index close to 5%.
If parliamentary elections were held in mid-February this year, up to 63% of voters of Ukraine would participate in the voting process, and the following parties and associations would get the majority of votes:
- Party of Regions — 16.5%, Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing "Batkivschyna'" (Y. Tymoshenko) — 14%, the Party "Front of Changes" (A. Yatseniuk) — 7.9%;
- The next four places would be taken by Communist Party of Ukraine (P. Symonenko) — 5.7%, the Party "UDAR" headed by Vitaliy Klychko — 4.6%, the Party "Strong Ukraine" (S. Tihipko) — 3.6%, and the Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing "Svoboda" (O. Tiagnybok) — 3.4%;
- Another political party would get more than one per cent of supporters — Party “Civil Position” (A. Hrytsenko) — 1.9%.
In terms of regional distribution:
- The Party of Regions would get the same quantity of votes from the residents of the Eastern and Southern regions (26%), 9% in the Central and 6% in the Western regions;
- The Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing “Batkivschyna” (Y. Tymoshenko) would be supported by 26% of the inhabitants of the Western region, 20% — in the Central area, 6% and 4% in the Southern and Eastern regions respectively;
- The party ”Front of Change” (A. Yatseniuk) would gain 14% of the inhabitants of the Western region, 9% — in the Central area, 6% and 3% of votes from the inhabitants of the Southern and Eastern regions respectively;
- Communist Party of Ukraine (P. Symonenko) would obtain support from 11% of residents of the Eastern region, 8% — in the South, 3% — in the Central area and 1% — in the Western region;
- The party “UDAR” headed by Vitaliy Klychko would take 7% of residents of the Western region, 6% — of the Central one, 3% and 2% in the Southern and Eastern regions respectively;
- The party “Strong Ukraine” (S. Tihipko) would gather 5% of votes in the South, 4% — in the East and the same 3% — in the Central and Western regions;
- Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing "Svoboda" (O. Tiahnybok) Would have the greatest support in the Western region (10%), also 3% of the population of the Central region would vote for him, and equally 1% of the population in the Southern and Eastern regions would do the same;
- Party “Civil Position” (A. Hrytsenko) would cover 3% of support in the Central region, 2% — in the Western and Southern regions, and 1% — in the Eastern region;
The question concerning the parliamentary elections in November was designed the same way it was in October, February and June.
6.3.2012