The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS

During February 5-10, 2024, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus", to which a question was added about whether presidential elections should be held, as well as whether V. Zelenskyi should compete for this position for the second time. Bythemethodofcomputer-assistedtelephoneinterviews(CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting), 1,202 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR of Crimea) were interviewed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived on the territory of Ukraine (within the boundaries controlled by the authorities of Ukraine until February 24, 2022). The sample did not include residents of territories that were temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine, and the survey was not conducted with citizens abroad.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) did not exceed 3.2% for indicators close to 50%, 2.7% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.4% - for indicators close to 5%.

Under conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. KIIS previously cited factors that can affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions.

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative for the population of Ukraine living in the territory under the control of the Government, and allow a fairly reliable analysis of the public moods of the population.

In December 2023, 84% of Ukrainians believed that it was not time to hold elections and it was necessary to postpone this issue. Along with this, we can observe the emergence of narratives that from May 2024, President V. Zelenskyi may lose his legitimacy. Therefore, in February 2024, we asked a question in a slightly different format, namely, which scenario from the point of view of the Ukrainians themselves is more correct after May 2024.

The vast majority of Ukrainians – 69% – believe that V. Zelenskyi should serve as President until the end of martial law. Believe that elections should be held - 15% (of which 4% talk about suspending martial law and 11% - for making changes to the relevant laws and holding elections during martial law). There are also 10% who support the option according to which in May 2024 V. Zelenskyi resigns and until a new President is elected, his powers will be exercised by the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada.

Graph 1. In May 2024, the 5-year term of office of President Zelenskyi coincides. The Constitution does not give a clear answer as to how to deal with this during war. What do you think is more correct?

The perception of the expediency of elections depends on trust in the President. Among those who trust V. Zelenskyi, 87% believe that he should work until the end of martial law without elections. At the same time, among those who do not trust V. Zelenskyi, 38% agree that he should serve as President until the end of martial law, and 54% support the possibility of a change of power (31% of them believe that elections are possible, and 23% - about transfer of powers to the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada).

Graph2. Perception of the need for presidential elections depending on trust / distrust of V. Zelenskyi

In all regions, opinions on this issue are quite similar.

Graph3. Perception of the need for presidential elections in the regional dimension

Regardless of views on the need for elections, more than half of Ukrainians (53%) believe that V. Zelenskyi should participate in the next elections. In December 2023, there were 59% of such.

On the other hand, from 34% in December 2023 to 43% in February 2024, the share of those who believe that V. Zelensky should limit himself to one current term increased.

Graph 4. In 2019, Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that he plans to run for the post of President for one term. There is currently no possibility of holding elections, but when the conditions for holding them appear, should he nominate his candidacy for a second time?

Residents of the West and South support V. Zelenskyi’s participation in the next elections relatively least, while residents of the Center and East support relatively the most.

Graph5. Attitudes towards the participation of V. Zelenskyi in the next presidential elections in the regional dimension

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

Advancing the narrative that the President loses legitimacy in May 2024 primarily plays into the hands of Ukraine's enemies - this will destabilize the situation and unity within the country and undermine Ukraine's support from Western allies. All the more so, as alternative scenarios upon a more detailed analysis also contain powerful threats to legitimacy and are destabilizing factors. Organizing elections is extremely difficult - millions of people are abroad, millions are in dangerous conditions or under occupation, hundreds of thousands are doing military service. The lack of opportunity for citizens to participate in voting as voters and candidates will undermine the legitimacy of the results (at the same time, 65% of Ukrainians have a negative attitude to online voting). The scenario with the transfer of powers to the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada contains, first of all, the problem of trust and, accordingly, social legitimacy. For example, now R. Stefanchuk is not known by many Ukrainians, and among those who know him, there are more who do not trust him. Other well-known public figures-members of parliament who can apply for the position of Chairman, also do not enjoy particularly tangible trust. Secondly, the question still remains, how long the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada can perform the duties of the President without holding elections.

You can have different attitudes towards President V. Zelenskyi - support certain decisions, criticize others, but avoiding polarization and instability and preserving the control of government institutions is in the interests of the entire society. This is the joint responsibility of the government, the opposition, civil society, journalists, and ordinary citizens. For ordinary Ukrainians, repelling the enemy remains a priority. This should be a priority for all Ukrainian public entities.

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

In May 2024, the 5-year term of office of President Zelenskyi coincides. The Constitution does not give a clear answer as to how to deal with this during war. What do you think is more correct?

In 2019, Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that he plans to run for the post of President for one term*. There is currently no possibility of holding elections, but when the conditions for holding them appear, should he nominate his candidacy for a second time? RANDOMIZATION OF THE ORDER

* An additional methodological comment on the wording: if there are elections, V. Zelenskyi's promise will be one of the arguments of the opposition and will be so widely known that if we want to predict public opinion, we should mention this promise before the question