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Electoral intentions of voters in Ukraine

KIIS conducted nationwide poll during June 8–17, 2012. 2040 respondents were interviewed; the survey covered all regions of Ukraine (including the city of Kyiv) and Crimea; sample was random and representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 years and older.

When measuring the rankings of political parties and candidates for the post of the President of Ukraine, it was taken into account that if the elections had been held during the survey, according to the current legislation, Y. Tymoshenko would have not been able to participate either in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, or in the presidential elections.

Statistical sampling error (with probability 0.95 and the design-effect 1.5) does not exceed 3.3% for index close to 50%, 2,8% — index close to 25%, 2,0% — index close to 10%, 1,4% — index close to 5%.


If parliamentary elections were held in mid-June, the survey results show that 55% of voters would participate in voting; and following parties and coalescings would get the biggest support:

  • Party of Regions (M. Azarov) — 16.0%; Ukrainian Coalescing "Batkivschyna" (A. Yatseniuk) — 14.5%;
  • The following four positions are taken by: the party "UDAR headed by Vitali Klitschko" — 8.0%; Communist Party of Ukraine (P. Symonenko) — 5.8%; Party "Ukraine, go ahead!" headed by Natalia Korolevska — 3.3%; Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing "Svoboda" (O. Tiahnybok) — 3.1%.
  • Two more political forces gained at least one per cent of supporters: "Civil Positions" (A. Hrytsenko) — 1.3%; Nation Party of Ukraine (V. Lytvyn) — 1.0%.

By the regional distribution [1]:

  • The Party of Regions has support of 26.1% of voters in the Eastern region; 19.7% of respondents in the Southern region, 11.4% — in the Central area and 7.9% in the Western macroregion;
  • Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing "Batlivschyna" gained 28.6% of votes in the West, 17.8% — in the Central area, 8.2% in the South and 3.4% in the Eastern macroregion;
  • "UDAR headed by Vitali Klitschko" got 11.3% of votes in the West, 9.2% in the Central area, 7.4% in the South and 3.9% in the Eastern macroregion;
  • Communist Party of Ukraine gathered 9.5% of votes in the South, 8.4% — in the East, 4.4% — in the Central region and 0.9% in the Western macroregion;
  • Party "Ukraine, go ahead!" headed by Nataliya Korolevska is supported by 3.9% of voters in the South, 3.5% — in the Central region, 3.0% — in the East and 2.5% — in Western macroregion;
  • Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing "Svoboda" got 10.8% of voters’ support in the West, 1.8% — in the Central area, 0.6% in the South and 0.0% of voters’ support in the Eastern region.

If the elections of the President of Ukraine were held in mid-June, the following candidates would get the biggest number of votes according to the survey results:

  • Viktor Yanukovych — 17.4%
  • Arseniy Yatsenyuk — 12.0%
  • Vitali Klitschko — 9.4%
  • Peter Simonenko — 4.8%
  • Natalia Korolevska — 3.4%
  • Anatoly Gritsenko — 2.5%
  • Oleg Tyagnibok — 2.4%.

 

 


Application

The questions concerning the parliamentary elections was designed as follows:



[1] Western macroregion: Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Transcarpathian area, Khmelnytsky, Chernivtsi, Central macroregion: Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Kiev region, Kiev, Southern macroregion: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Odessa, Crimea (including Sevastopol), Eastern macroregion: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv region.

26.6.2012
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