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Electoral intentions of voters in Ukraine in the end of May
KIIS conducted nationwide poll during the period of May 23 — June 1, 2012. 2042 respondents were interviewed face-to-face; the survey covered all the regions of Ukraine (including the city of Kyiv) and Crimea; sample was random and representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 years and older. Statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and a design-effect 1.5) does not exceed 3.3% in index close to 50%, 2,8% — index close to 25%, 2,3% — index close to 15%, 2 0% — index close to 10%, 1,4% — index close to 5%.
The number of voters who would vote for a certain party in the late May (as a percentage of the total adult population of Ukraine aged 18 years and older) were as follows:
# The electoral support of the parties mentioned above has shown statistically significant change only regarding the Polotical Party "UDAR" headed by Vitaliy Klychko during the last month; its support has increased in more than 1.4 times (from 5.9% to 8.4%). # The total electoral support of oppositional parties continues to significantly exceed the total electoral support of pro-governmental political parties: 28% vs. 22%; this correlation has not significantly changed during the last month. # The share of voters who were ready to participate in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine in the end of May made up about 55% all over Ukraine; in particular it constituted 64% in the Western region, 55% in the Central region, 56% in the South and 44% in Eastern area. # If parliamentary elections were held in the end of May, provided that the mentioned above amount of voters would definitely participate, the following parties would get at least 5% of votes: the Party of Regions — 27.7%, Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing "Batkivschyna" — 26.3%, the Party “UDAR” headed by Vitaliy Klytschko — 15.5%, the Communist Party of Ukraine — 9.8% and Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing "Svoboda" — 5.1%. # With the above distribution of votes according to the party lists of members, Party of Regions would have 74 seats of 225 in the Parliament; Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing "Batkivschyna" — 70 seats, the party "UDAR" headed by Vitaliy Klytschko — 41 seats, the Communist Party of Ukraine — 26 and Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing "Svoboda" — 14 seats. # The Political Party “Ukraine, go ahead!” headed by Natalie Korolevska would have gained 4,8% of votes, which difference from the passing level of 5% to the Parliament is much less that statistically significant error, according to a survey held in the end of May. In case that this party would pass, Party of Regions could get 70 seats, Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing "Batkivschyna" — 66 seats, party "UDAR" headed by Vitaliy Klytschko — 39 seats, the Communist Party of Ukraine — 25 seats, Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing "Svoboda" — 13 seats, and Party "Ukraine, go ahead!" headed by Natalie Korolevska — 12 seats.
By regional distribution [1]:
[1] Western macroregion: Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Transcarpathian area, Khmelnytsky, Chernivtsi, Central macroregion: Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Kiev region, Kiev, Southern macroregion: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Odessa, Crimea (including Sevastopol), Eastern macroregion: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv region.
12.6.2012
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