ATTITUDE OF THE POPULATION OF UKRAINE TO RUSSIA AND WHAT THE RELATIONS BETWEEN UKRAINE AND RUSSIA SHOULD BE, FEBRUARY 2022
Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) during February 5-13, 2022 conducted own all-Ukrainian public opinion poll "Omnibus". By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile telephone numbers (with random generation of telephone numbers and subsequent statistical weighing) were interviewed 2004 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except the AR of Crimea). The sample is representative of the adult population (18 years and older) of Ukraine. The sample does not include territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the poll was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.
Statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) does not exceed: 2.4% for indicators close to 50%, 2.1% for indicators close to 25%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.1% - for indicators close to 5%.
Attitude in Ukraine to Russia
In the course of the research, Ukrainians as before were asked a question "What is your current attitude to Russia in general?" Compared to November 2021, the share of those who have a good attitude towards Russia has decreased from 39% to 34%. It can be seen that attitude towards Russia have deteriorated sharply since 2014, reaching a "bottom" in May 2015. After that, until February 2019, there was an improvement in attitude towards Russia, and from February 2020, we see a deterioration in attitude again.
Graph 1. Dynamics of good and bad attitude of the population of Ukraine to Russia
- The attitude of Ukrainians to Russia significantly depends on the region: in the West 21% have a positive attitude towards Russia, in the Center - 31%, in the South - 45%, in the East - 53%. At the same time, in the West most of those who have a negative attitude towards Russia - 64%. In the Center are negative - 55%, in the South - 40%, in the East - 30% (see table 2).
- In November 2021, KIIS asked a broader block of questions (https://kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=1078&page=4). The results showed that respondents who maintain a positive attitude towards Russia are more likely to perceive "Russia" as "ordinary people" / "Russian culture" /, etc. (given that 43% have close relatives in Russia). At the same time, respondents who have a negative attitude associate "Russia" more with "Russian authorities" / "state". At the same time, the vast majority of respondents have a negative attitude towards the government.
Opinions of Ukrainians on what the relations between Ukraine and Russia should be
Respondents were also asked a question "What would you like to see Ukraine's relations with Russia?". As before, the vast majority - 92% - of respondents believe that Ukraine and Russia should be independent states. Moreover, compared to November 2021, the indicator even increased (from 88%). Only 5% of respondents believe that Ukraine and Russia should unite into one state.
Graph2. What kind of relations with Russia want in Ukraine?*
* The line on the graph "Ukraine and Russia should be independent" is the sum of the first two columns in Table 6, i.e. the percentage of those who want independence with borders and customs, and those who want independence but without borders and customs (see tables below).
- In all regions, the vast majority of respondents - from 95% in the West to 86% in the East - believe that Ukraine and Russia should be independent states (support for unification varies from 1% in the West to 11% in the East). If we analyze Donetsk and Luhansk regions separately (territories controlled by Ukraine), 84% believe that Ukraine and Russia should be independent states, and advocate unification 14%.
Annex 1. Formulation and order of questions from the questionnaire
What would you like to see Ukraine's relations with Russia? ONE ANSWER
Ukraine's relations with Russia should be the same as with other countries - with closed borders, visas, customs |
1 |
Ukraine and Russia should be independent but friendly states - with open borders, without visas and customs |
2 |
Ukraine and Russia must unite into one state |
3 |
DS/NA |
9 |
How do you treat Russia in general now?
very good |
1 |
mostly bad |
3 |
DIFFICULT TO SAY / REFUSAL TO ANSWER |
9 |
mostly good |
2 |
very bad |
4 |
Annex 2. Composition of the regions of Ukraine
Western macroregion - Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Chernivtsi regions;
Central macroregion – Kyiv city, Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Chernihiv regions;
Southern macroregion – Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson regions;
Eastern macroregion – Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk regions (districts controlled by Ukraine)
Annex3. TABLES
Table 1. How do you treat Russia in general now?
IN UKRAINE TO RUSSIA treat, % |
Date |
very good / mostly good |
mostly bad / very bad |
DIFFICULT TO SAY |
TOTAL |
Apr.08 |
88 |
7 |
5 |
100 |
Sep.08 |
88 |
9 |
3 |
100 |
Feb.09 |
91 |
5 |
4 |
100 |
May.09 |
93 |
4 |
3 |
100 |
Oct.09 |
92 |
6 |
3 |
100 |
Mar.10 |
90 |
6 |
4 |
100 |
Jun.10 |
92 |
6 |
3 |
100 |
Oct.10 |
93 |
4 |
3 |
100 |
Nov.11 |
80 |
13 |
7 |
100 |
Feb.12 |
85 |
9 |
6 |
100 |
Sep.12 |
83 |
11 |
6 |
100 |
Feb.13 |
85 |
8 |
7 |
100 |
May.13 |
81 |
10 |
9 |
100 |
Nov.13 |
82 |
10 |
8 |
100 |
Feb.14 |
78 |
13 |
9 |
100 |
May.14 |
52 |
38 |
10 |
100 |
Sep.14 |
48 |
41 |
11 |
100 |
Dec.14 |
37 |
48 |
16 |
100 |
Feb.15 |
34 |
51 |
15 |
100 |
May.15 |
30 |
56 |
14 |
100 |
Sep.15 |
34 |
53 |
13 |
100 |
Feb.16 |
36 |
47 |
13 |
100 |
May.16 |
42 |
43 |
15 |
100 |
Sep.16 |
40 |
46 |
14 |
100 |
Dec.16 |
40 |
47 |
13 |
100 |
Feb.17 |
39 |
46 |
15 |
100 |
May.17 |
44 |
37 |
19 |
100 |
Sep.17 |
37 |
46 |
17 |
100 |
Dec.17 |
42 |
39 |
19 |
100 |
Feb.18 |
45 |
38 |
18 |
100 |
Sep.18 |
48 |
32 |
19 |
100 |
Feb.19 |
57 |
27 |
17 |
100 |
Sep.19 |
54 |
35 |
11 |
100 |
Feb.20 |
54 |
33 |
13 |
100 |
Sep.20 |
42 |
42 |
16 |
100 |
Feb.21 |
41 |
42 |
17 |
100 |
Nov.21 |
39 |
47 |
14 |
100 |
Dec.22 |
34 |
50 |
15 |
100 |
Table 2. How do you treat Russia in general now?
Distribution by regions, February 2022, %
|
Ukraine as a whole, % |
Western |
Central |
Southern |
Eastern |
Very good |
4 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
9 |
Mostly good |
30 |
19 |
28 |
38 |
44 |
Mostly bad |
23 |
25 |
27 |
19 |
18 |
Very bad |
27 |
39 |
28 |
21 |
12 |
DIFFICULT TO SAY / REFUSAL TO ANSWER |
15 |
15 |
14 |
16 |
18 |
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Table3. What would you like to see Ukraine's relations with Russia?
|
IN UKRAINE |
Date |
They should be the same as with other states - with closed borders, visas, customs |
Ukraine and Russia should be independent but friendly states - with open borders, without visas and customs |
Ukraine and Russia must unite into one state |
Difficult to say |
Total |
Apr.08 |
10 |
67 |
20 |
3 |
100 |
Sep.08 |
17 |
66 |
16 |
2 |
100 |
Feb.09 |
8 |
68 |
23 |
1 |
100 |
May.09 |
10 |
65 |
23 |
2 |
100 |
Oct.09 |
11 |
67 |
19 |
3 |
100 |
Бер.10 |
11 |
67 |
19 |
3 |
100 |
Jun.10 |
12 |
70 |
16 |
2 |
100 |
Oct.10 |
10 |
67 |
20 |
2 |
100 |
Nov.11 |
13 |
67 |
16 |
1 |
100 |
Feb.12 |
13 |
69 |
16 |
2 |
100 |
Sep.12 |
11 |
72 |
14 |
3 |
100 |
Feb.13 |
13 |
68 |
16 |
3 |
100 |
May.13 |
11 |
69 |
14 |
5 |
100 |
Nov.13 |
12 |
73 |
9 |
6 |
100 |
Feb.14 |
15 |
68 |
12 |
5 |
100 |
May.14 |
32 |
54 |
8 |
5 |
100 |
Sep.14 |
45 |
44 |
5 |
6 |
100 |
Dec.14 |
50 |
42 |
3 |
5 |
100 |
Feb.15 |
48 |
43 |
4 |
6 |
100 |
May.15 |
45 |
46 |
2 |
7 |
100 |
Sep.15 |
46 |
45 |
2 |
7 |
100 |
Feb.16 |
42 |
43 |
4 |
11 |
100 |
May.16 |
44 |
44 |
3 |
9 |
100 |
Sep.16 |
49 |
43 |
3 |
6 |
100 |
Dec.16 |
45 |
46 |
3 |
7 |
100 |
Feb.17 |
47 |
43 |
2 |
7 |
100 |
May.17 |
43 |
47 |
4 |
6 |
100 |
Sep.17 |
49 |
40 |
4 |
8 |
100 |
Dec.17 |
45 |
40 |
4 |
11 |
100 |
Feb.18 |
44 |
44 |
3 |
9 |
100 |
Sep.2018 |
38 |
50 |
4 |
8 |
100 |
Feb.2019 |
39 |
48 |
4 |
9 |
100 |
Sep.2019 |
41 |
49 |
3 |
7 |
100 |
Feb.2020 |
39 |
51 |
3 |
7 |
100 |
Sep.2020 |
39 |
51 |
5 |
5 |
100 |
Feb.2021 |
39 |
49 |
6 |
6 |
100 |
Nov.2021 |
39 |
49 |
6 |
6 |
100 |
Feb.2022 |
44 |
48 |
5 |
3 |
100 |
Table4. What would you like to see Ukraine's relations with Russia?
Distribution by regions, February 2022, %
|
Ukraine as a whole, % |
Western |
Central |
Southern |
Eastern |
Ukraine's relations with Russia should be the same as with others, with visas and customs |
44 |
55 |
49 |
35 |
23 |
Ukraine and Russia must be independent, but without visas and customs |
48 |
40 |
45 |
54 |
62 |
Ukraine and Russia must unite into one state |
5 |
1 |
3 |
8 |
11 |
DIFFICULT TO SAY |
3 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |