From September 1 to September 7, 2008 the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted All–Ukrainian poll. 2036 respondents at the age of 18 years and older living in all regions of Ukraine, Crimea and Kiev according to statistical selection were surveyed by the method of interview.
The statistical error of selection (with probability 0,95 and at design–effect 1,5) doesn't exceed the following: 3,5% for indicators which are close to 50%, 3,0% – for indicators which are close to 25%, 2,0% – for indicators which are close to 10%.
If parliamentary elections were held in early September of this year:
from 60 to 65% of voters would likely participate in parliamentary elections;
five parties and blocs would get into the parliament with following results of voting:
-
The Yulia Tymoshenko Block - 24.0%
-
Party of Regions - 23.3%
-
Block NUNS - 3.8%
-
The Communist Party of Ukraine - 3.8%
-
The block Volodymyr Lytvyn - 3.4%
If presidential elections were held in early September of this year:
-
70% of voters would take part in the voting;
-
Yulia Tymoshenko (25.0%) and Viktor Yanukovych (24.6%) would have an equal chance to get in the 2-nd round of presidential elections. Viktor Yushchenko is in third place, 6.8% respondents are ready to vote for him;
-
Yulia Tymoshenko would have rather more chance to be elected in the 2nd round.
So if the presidential elections were held in September, Yulia Tymoshenko would have been elected as a president, less likely - Viktor Yanukovych.
In the parliamentary elections by region:
-
Party of Regions would have substantive support in the South (30.8%) and Eastern (47.7%) regions;
-
The Yulia Tymoshenko Block – in the West (39.7%) and Central (30.8%);
-
The Communist Party of Ukraine – in the East (5.8%) and the South (5.3%);
-
Block NUNS – in the Western region (9.2%).
In the 1-st round of the presidential elections in regions voices would be distributed as follows:
-
For Yulia Tymoshenko 40.4% of the respondents in the Western region is going to vote, 32% – in the Central, 17.9% – in the South and 8.6% – in the East;
-
For Viktor Yanukovych is going to vote 47.2% of the respondents in the Eastern region, 34.3% – in the South, 14.8% – in the Central and 3.6% – in the West;
-
For Viktor Yushchenko is going to vote 14.4% of the respondents in the Western region, 9.6% – in the Central, 2.6% – in the South and 0.7% – in the East.
Application
Allocation table
If next Sunday will be elections to the Ukrainian Parliament, take you part in the vote?
| |
Ukraine in general, % |
| Of course, (no doubt) yes |
41.6 |
| Probably yes |
21.0 |
| Of course, (no doubt) no |
19.1 |
| I don’t know |
9.4 |
| Probably no |
6.7 |
| Difficulty to say/No answers |
2.4 |
| Total |
100.0 |
If next Sunday will be elections to the Ukrainian Parliament and the following parties (blocks) take part in it which party would you vote?
| |
Ukraine in general, % |
Western |
Central |
Southern |
Eastern |
| Block of Yulia Tymoshenko |
24.1 |
39.7 |
30.8 |
17.5 |
7.2 |
| Party of Regions |
23.3 |
3.6 |
13.0 |
30.8 |
47.7 |
| Communist Party |
3.8 |
0.9 |
3.3 |
5.2 |
5.9 |
| Block NUNS |
3.8 |
9.2 |
3.6 |
2.2 |
0.7 |
| Block of Volodymyr Lytvyn |
3.4 |
2.2 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
1.8 |
| Would not take part in the voting |
16.3 |
20.2 |
15.5 |
14.4 |
15.8 |
| Difficulty to say/No answers |
11.1 |
9.6 |
12.7 |
9.8 |
11.9 |
| Would have voted against all |
9.9 |
9.0 |
12.5 |
11.3 |
5.6 |
| All-Ukrainian association «Freedom» |
1.1 |
3.8 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
| Narodnay samooborona(Yuriy Lutsenko) |
1.1 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
| Progressive socialist party |
1 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
2.4 |
1.4 |
| Socialist party |
0.9 |
0.2 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
| Other parties |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
| United center (Baloga) |
0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Total |
100 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
If next Sunday will be presidential elections, take you part in the vote?
| |
Ukraine in general, % |
| Of course, (no doubt) yes |
47.6 |
| Probably yes |
23.8 |
| Of course, (no doubt) no |
13.9 |
| I don’t know |
7.9 |
| Probably no |
4.4 |
| Difficulty to say/No answers |
2.5 |
| Total |
100 |
If next Sunday will be presidential elections and the following candidates take part in it which party would you vote?
| |
|
4 regions |
| |
Ukraine in general, % |
Western |
Central |
Southern |
Eastern |
| Yulia Tymoshenko |
25.0 |
40.4 |
32.0 |
17.9 |
8.6 |
| Viktor Yanukovych |
24.6 |
3.6 |
14.8 |
34.3 |
47.2 |
| Would not take part in the voting |
10.7 |
11.5 |
11.4 |
8.7 |
11.3 |
| Difficulty to say / refusal to answer |
9.8 |
10.8 |
9.4 |
8.7 |
10.6 |
| I would not vote for anyone / Against all |
7.9 |
4.5 |
9.7 |
10.9 |
5.4 |
| Victor Yushchenko |
6.8 |
14.4 |
9.6 |
2.6 |
0.7 |
| Volodymyr Lytvyn |
4.0 |
2.5 |
3.8 |
5.9 |
3.6 |
| Peter Simonenko |
3.8 |
0.7 |
4.0 |
4.6 |
5.4 |
| Arseniy Yatsenyuk |
3.5 |
7.0 |
2.6 |
3.0 |
1.6 |
| Natalia Vitrenko |
1.6 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
2.4 |
3.6 |
| Other (who?) |
1.5 |
2.0 |
1.6 |
0.6 |
2.0 |
| Anatoly Gritsenko |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
| Oleg Tyagnibok |
0.4 |
1.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
For whom would you vote if Tymoshenko and Yanukovych make it to the second round of an presidential election?
| |
Ukraine in general, % |
| Yulia Tymoshenko |
35.1 |
| Viktor Yanukovych |
32.8 |
| Against all |
16.1 |
| Would not take part in the voting |
8.9 |
| Difficulty to say |
7.1 |
| Total |
|
For whom would you vote if Yushchenko and Yanukovych make it to the second round of an presidential election?
| |
Ukraine in general, % |
| Viktor Yanukovych |
36.2 |
| Against all |
26.1 |
| Victor Yushchenko |
20.8 |
| Would not take part in the voting |
9.2 |
| Difficulty to say |
7.6 |
| Total |
100 |
For whom would you vote if Yushchenko and Tymoshenko make it to the second round of an presidential election?
| |
Ukraine in general, % |
| Yulia Tymoshenko |
34.6 |
| Against all |
33.0 |
| Victor Yushchenko |
12.1 |
| Would not take part in the voting |
11.6 |
| Difficulty to say |
8.7 |
| Total |
100.0 |
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