Kyiv International Institute of Sociology conducted a survey ordered by the “Institute of Informational Sosciety” during the period of September 14–30, 2012. The study was made with a representative sample of adult population (aged 18 years and older) in the electoral district 194. The territory of the electoral district covers Pridniprovsky and part of Sosnivsky area of the city of Cherkasy. The current study was aimed to learn opinions of adult residents of the electoral district 194 regarding various current socio-political issues. 1,003 county residents were interviewed.

The statistical error does not exceed (without design-effect):
3.2% — index close to 50%,
2.8% — index close to 25% and 75%,
2.1% — index close to 12% and 88%,
1.4% — index close to 5% and 95%,
0.7% — index that are close to 1% and 99%.

Party List Voting To The Verkhovna Rada Of Ukraine

If the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place in the second half of September, the majority of residents of the electoral district 194 would support "UDAR" headed by V. Klychko, which would get 33% of votes of residents who had already had made their choice (Table 1). Second place with a rather noticeable gap would be taken by the United opposition with the result of 23%. The third place would be taken by the Party of Regions with their 16% of respondents; in the fourth place there would be Communist Party of Ukraine with the result of 11%. The fifth and sixth places would be taken by "Ukraine, go ahead!" (5%) and "Svoboda" (5%) respectively. Other parties would receive statistically significantly less support among the population of the electoral district.

Table 1

If there were held party list elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on the next Sunday, would you participate in the elections? And what would be your choice if the participating parties would be as follows?
(%of respondents who have already defined their electoral preferences)

Party orientations of the population have changed dramatically if compared to the previous two surveys. Thus, the United opposition was a leader right before the beginning of September, the second and the third places were shared between "UDAR" headed by V. Klychko and the Party of Regions (Table 2). As of the end of September "UDAR" headed by Vitaliy Klychko has significantly increased its support (from 17% in August to 33% at the end of September) what made it stay at the first place of the top list. However, UNC "Batkivschyna" has lost its support (from 34% in August to 23% in late September), and ended up on the second place. Another opposition force "Svoboda" has also slightly decreased its support from 10% to 5%. We should note that although the beginning of September showed a significant rise of support of the party  "Ukraine, go ahead!" (party’s ranking in August-early September was 5%–10% respectively), the end of September has made some changes into the amount of supporters of the party, making it return to their August position. As for the Party of Regions, the Communist Party of Ukraine and the party "Our Ukraine", theirs support remains at about the same level. Since the total support of the oppositional — for the purpose of discussion "orange" — parties ("UDAR" headed by Vitaliy Klychko, UNC "Batkivschyna", UNC "Svoboda", "Our Ukraine") remains about the same (61% in August, 57% in early September, 64% in the end of September), then, obviously, we observe a redistribution of oppositional electorate between the major parties which belong to the corresponding spectrum.

Table 2

If there were held party list elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on the next Sunday, would you participate in the elections? And what would be your choice if the participating parties would be as follows?
(%of respondents who have already defined their electoral preferences)

Majority Voting System In Elections To The Verkhovna Rada Of Ukraine

As the survey results prove, there are several strong candidates in the district (Table 3). As of the end of September the two leaders were V. Zhukovska (26% of district residents who made up their electoral preferences would vote for him) and M. Bulatetskyi (25%). We should note that the difference between the support of both candidates is not statistically significant, so we can not say which of the candidates should be ranked as a leader, and which one to take the second place. It would be correct to say that V. Zhukovska and M. Bulatets'kyi share the first and the second place in the district. However, V. Zhukovska is doing better than M.Bulatetskyi according to the dynamics of the growth of support.

Table 3

If there were held majority system elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on the next Sunday, would you participate in the elections? And what would be your choice if the participating candidates would be as follows?
(%of respondents who have already defined their electoral preferences)

Disapproval ranking of candidates in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.

All candidates have rather low disapproval level. The relatively highest disapproval level belongs to V. Paramonov, since he would not be supported by 14% of the district residents under no circumstances (Table 4).

Table 4

Please, note a candidate whom you would never vote for?
(% of all respondents)

The following Table 5 provides data about which candidates are supported by voters for major parties of the electoral districts. Thus, although the relative majority of voters for "UDAR" headed by V. Klychko who have decided on their candidate, vote for "their" nominee (45% of party voters support A. Kondratenko), but also a noticeable share of votes would go for V. Zhukovska (27%) and M. Bulatetskyi (17%). The vast majority of voters for UNC "Batkivschyna" (68%) choose M. Bulatetskyi, although one in five (19%) supports V. Zhukovska. Like most of the United Opposition supporters, the ones of the Party of Regions (58%) vote for "their" candidate, though there is also highly visible support of V. Zhukovska (27%). V. Belousov is a leader among voters for Communist Party of Ukraine (79% of voters for the Communist Party of Ukraine would choose him), but 11% are likely to vote for V. Zhukovska. But only one in three (32%) would vote for "their" nominee among voters for “Ukraine, go ahead!”, against 48% of respondents who support V. Zhukovska. A relative majority of supporters of UNC "Svoboda" (32%) would vote for M. Bulatetskyi, and the remaining votes are more or less equally divided between several candidates. We should underline that V. Zhukovska is unequivocal leader among those who are not identified with their party preferences yet, who would get 47% of votes in this segment of the electorate that are already defined with their candidate.

Table 5

If there were held majority system elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on the next Sunday, would you participate in the elections? And what would be your choice if the participating candidates would be as follows? 
(%of respondents who have already defined their electoral preferences)

^{* Number of respondents of these categories is not enough for reliable statistical calculations, the data obtained can be used to assess general trends only.}

The Credibility Of The Candidates For The Position Of National Deputy In Majority Electorate District 194

None of the candidates from the list has a full credibility among the residents of the electoral district. The best situation is about V. Zhukovska and A. Kondratenko. Thus, V. Zhukovska has a trust of 35% of those who know her, against 27% of those who do not trust her (thus, the trust-untrust balance is +8). As for the situation of A. Kondratenko, the respective figures are 28% and 22% (+6). We should note that M. Bulatetskyi who is one of the key players in the district, has a trust and untrust of equal numbers of voters who know him: 32% each group (thus, it makes up a zero balance of trust and untrust). All the other candidates have negative balance of trust and untrust (in other words, the number of those who thrust them is much lower than the number of those who do not trust them among residents who know them).

How much do you trust or do not trust ...
(% of those who know a relevant candidate)

Candidates’ Motivation In Selecting Candidates For The Position Of National Deputy In Majority Elections Districts

As you can see in the Table 6 below, different people pay attention to different aspects when they explain their choice of a particular candidate. In most cases people’s arguments were such features of candidates as their responsibility, reliability (20%), well-known positive professional image made up by their previous activity (20%), ability to solve (tries to solve) problems the city faces (19%), ability to improve well-being of people (19%). At the same time, other characteristics, including party affiliation of a candidate, is less important for voters.

Table 6

Why do you choose a certain candidate? / What is the feature you usually pay attention to when choosing a candidate?
(% of all respondents)