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Social and political attitudes of the residents of Kyiv: September 2018

Social and political attitudes of the residents of Kyiv: September 2018

 

On September 4 – 13, 2018, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted a public opinion poll of the residents of Kyiv city by the client`s request. Data were collected from 800 respondents living in Kyiv with the method of computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI). The sample was 2-staged, with quota selection at the last stage, and it is representative of the population of the city aged 18 and above.

The statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and without the design effect) does not exceed: 3.5% — for indexes close to 50%, 3.1% — for indexes close to 25% or 75%, 2.3% — for indexes close to 12% or 88%, 1.6% — for indexes close to 5% or 95%.           

 

Assessment of the direction of affairs in Kyiv and assessment of the activity of V. Klychko as a Mayor of the city
 
  • 49.4% of the respondents believe that things in Kyiv are generally going in the wrong direction, 38.9% - in the right direction. Another 11.8% of the respondents could not or refused to answer the question;
  • At the same time, 31.5% of the respondents appreciate the work of V. Klychko as mayor of the city, 39.4% - evaluate it as neither good nor bad, 25.1% - evaluate it poorly. Another 4% have not determined their attitude or refused to answer.
 
 
Foreign policy orientations of the city residents
 
  • At the same time, the answers to the question "In your opinion, what direction of foreign policy should Ukraine take?" were distributed as follows.
    • joining the European Union – 66.5%;
    • joining the Customs Union – 4%
    • joining none of the customs – 23.3%;
    • difficult to say/denial from answering – 6.3%.
  • In case of conducting a referendum on joining NATO, 64.8% of the city's population would vote “for”, 15.9% – would vote “against”, 12% – would not participate. Another 7.4% of the respondents were undecided or refused to answer questions. Thus, 80.3% of the residents of Kyiv who would have taken part in the referendum would have voted for joining NATO.

 

The expediency of adopting a new Constitution and the optimal form of government for Ukraine

 

  • The respondents were asked: "Some politicians, experts, and ordinary people believe that in order to improve the situation in the country, a new Constitution must be adopted. Others hold the view that in order to improve the situation, it is necessary to comply with the current Constitution. With which point of view do you agree?". The answers of the respondents were distributed as follows:

    • to improve the situation in the country, a new Constitution must be adopted20%;
    • to improve the situation in the country, it is necessary to comply with the current Constitution – 69.3%;
    • difficult to say/denial from answering – 10.7%.
  •  The respondents' answers to the question "Which form of government do you support to a greater extent?" were distributed as follows:

    • The Presidential form of government, when the President has broad powers, appoints or him/herself is the Head of Government, and also he/she is responsible for the international relations, defense, and socio-economic policy in the country – 12.8%;

    • A Parliamentary-presidential form of government, when the President is responsible for the international relations and defense of the country. Instead, the Head of Government is appointed by the Parliament and is responsible for socio-economic policy in the country - 54.6%;

    • A Parliamentary form of government, when the Head of Government is appointed by the Parliament and is responsible for the areas of international relations, defense, socio-economic policies in the country. At the same time, the President has only symbolic or ceremonial powers - 23%;

    • Difficult to say/denial from answering – 9.7%.

 

Attitude towards public-political leaders

Hereby is the table that shows the trust of Kyiv residents in various public and political figures.

I will now read to you the names of some public-political figures. For each one, tell me whether you know, have heard anything or read about him or her? IF “KNOW” What is your attitude toward him/her?

  Positive Neutral Negative Denial from answering Do not know him/her Balance of positive – negative attitude
Mykola Tomenko 29.5 32.8 15.6 5.5 16.6 13.9
Anatolii Hrytsenko 30.5 38.1 20.8 4.1 6.5 9.8
Vitalii Klychko 33.6 34.1 27.8 4.5 0.0 5.9
Andrii Sadovyi 22.6 43.8 19.5 5.3 8.9 3.1
Valentyn Nalyvaichenko 18.3 38.9 21.4 3.8 17.8 -3.1
Volodymyr Hroisman 24.3 36.0 33.8 5.5 0.5 -9.5
Petro Poroshenko 30.3 24.0 41.8 3.9 0.1 -11.5
Andrii Parubii 15.0 42.5 35.1 5.1 2.3 -20.1
Yurii Boiko 7.5 28.5 46.6 4.5 12.9 -39.1
Yulia Tymoshenko 17.8 21.8 57.6 2.8 0.1 -39.9
Vadym Rabinovych 11.0 24.8 52.3 2.8 9.3 -41.3
Oleh Liashko 7.4 23.0 65.3 4.3 0.1 -57.9

 

Electoral moods of the population regarding the election of the Mayor of Kyiv

If the elections of the Mayor of Kyiv had been held in the middle of September and the following candidates had participated, then out of all citizens of Kyiv aged 18 and above:

  • 30%  would have voted for V.Klychko,

  • 12% – for M.Tomenko,

  • 9.6% – for B.Bereza,

  • 3.8% – for V.Bondrenko,

  • 3.5% – for S.Husovskyi,

  • 0.4% – for O.Myrnyi,

  • 0.1% – for O.Puzanova,

  • 2.1% – for other candidates,

  • 8.9% – would have crossed out all the candidates, spoilt the ballot,

  • 3.4% – decided not to participate in voting,

  • 25.5% – have not decided whom to vote for,

  • 0.8% – refused to answer the question.

 

Thus, if those who had not decided whom to vote for yet had not, as usual, come to the elections, about 62% of all voters would have participated, and their votes would have been distributed as follows (actually these are the closest indexes to the possible outcomes of the elections if it had been held in mid-September and exactly these candidates participated):

  • 48.8%  would have voted for V.Klychko,

  • 19.5% – for M.Tomenko,

  • 15.7% – for B.Bereza,

  • 6.1% – for V.Bondrenko,

  • 5.7% – for S.Husovskyi,

  • 0.6% – for O.Myrnyi,

  • 0.2% – for O.Puzanova,

  • 3.5% – for other candidates.


Electoral moods of the population regarding the election to the City Council of Kyiv

If the elections to the City Council of Kyiv had been held in the middle of September and the following political forces had participated (see the full list in Addition), then out of all citizens of Kyiv aged 18 and above:

  • 10.3%  would have voted for the party “Block S.Vakarchuka”,

  • 8.4% – for the party “Block P.Poroshenka”,

  • 8.1% – for the party “AU Batkivshchyna”,

  • 5.1% – for the party “Obiednannia Samopomich”,

  • 4.6% – for the party “Za jyttia”,

  • 4.6% – for the party “Sluha narodu”,

  • 4.4% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsia”,

  • 3.6% – for the party “AU Svoboda”,

  • 3% – for the party “Hromadianskyi rukh M.Tomenka “Ridna kraina”,

  • 3% – for the party “UDAR”/party of V.Klychko*,

  • 2.4% – for the party “Narodnyi front”,

  • 11.5% – for other parties in total,

  • 1.4% – would have crossed out all the candidates, spoilt the ballot,

  • 7.3% – decided not to participate in voting,

  • 22.1% – have not decided whom to vote for,

  • 0.3% – refused to answer the question.

*The party "UDAR" or the party of V. Klychko were not mentioned on the list that was proposed to the respondents, however the respondents could call their own "other" option,  and 3% of them decided to call "UDAR" or the party V. Klychko as their “other” option after having read the list. Possibly, if this party was presented on the list from the very beginning and was read to all respondents, its rating could be higher.

 

Thus, if those who had not decided whom to vote for yet had not, as usual, come to the elections, about 69% of all voters would have participated, and their votes would have been distributed as follows (actually these are the closest indexes to the possible outcomes of the elections if it had been held in mid-September and exactly these parties participated):

  • 14.9%  would have voted for the party “Block S.Vakarchuka”,

  • 12.1% – for the party “Block P.Poroshenka”,

  • 11.8% – for the party “AU Batkivshchyna”,

  • 7.4% – for the party “Obiednannia Samopomich”,

  • 6.7% – for the party “Za jyttia”,

  • 6.7% – for the party “Sluha narodu”,

  • 6.3% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsia”,

  • 5.3% – for the party “AU Svoboda”,

  • 4.3% – for the party “Hromadianskyi rukh M.Tomenka “Ridna kraina”,

  • 4.3% – for the party “UDAR”/party of V.Klychko*,

  • 3.4% – for the party “Narodnyi front”,

  • 16.7% – for other parties in total.


Addition

 

Below is a fragment of the questionnaire with the distribution of the respondents' answers to the questions published in the press release.
 
Questions from the questionnaire are given in the order in which they were addressed to the respondents.
 

Imagine, please, that the elections to the City Council of Kyiv are being held now, and the representatives of the elections commission just came to you with a ballot for voting where the following parties are included. Will you vote?
IF “YES”, PASS THE CARD AND ASK: Whom would you vote for if the following parties participated?

100% in column % among all % among those who decided with the choice
Agrarian party of Ukraine (V.Skotsyk) 1.8 2.5
“Block Sviatoslava Vakarchuka” 10.3 14.9
“Block Petra Poroshenka “Solidarnist” 8.4 12.1
“Vidrodzhennia” (V.Bondar) 0.3 0.4
AU “Batkivshchyna” (Y.Tymoshenko) 8.1 11.8
AU “Svoboda” (O.Tiahnybok) 3.6 5.3
“Hromadsko-politychnyi rukh Valentyna Nalyvaichenka “Spravedlyvist” 1.0 1.4
“Hromadskyi rukh Mykoly Tomenka “Ridna kraina” 3.0 4.3
“Hromadianska pozytsia” (A.Hrytsenko) 4.4 6.3
“Za jyttia” (V.Rabinovych) 4.6 6.7
“Narodnyi front” (A.Yatseniuk) 2.4 3.4
“Natsionalnyi korpus” (A.Biletskyi) 0.5 0.7
“Nash krai” (O.Mazurchak) 0.0 0.0
“Obiednannia Samopomich” (A.Sadovyi) 5.1 7.4
“Opozytsiynyi block” (Y.Boiko) 1.3 1.8
“Osnova” (S.Taruta) 0.4 0.5
Radical party of O.Liashko 1.6 2.4
“Rukh novykh syl” (M.Saakashvili) 1.4 2.0
“Sluha narodu” (V.Zelenskyi) 4.6 6.7
“Ukrainske obiednannia patriotiv” (I.Palytsia) 0.6 0.9
“UDAR”/Party of V.Klychko* 3.0 4.3
Other party 2.8 4.0
WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT / WOULD CROSS OUT ALL THE PARTIES 1.4 ---
DIFFICULT TO SAY / UNDECIDED 22.1 ---
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING 0.3 ---
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE IN VOTING 7.3 ---

* The party "UDAR" or the party of V. Klychko were not mentioned on the list that was proposed to the respondents, however the respondents could call their own "other" option,  and 3% of them decided to call "UDAR" or the party V. Klychko as their “other” option after having read the list. Possibly, if this party was presented on the list from the very beginning and was read to all respondents, its rating could be higher.


Imagine, please, that the elections to the City Council of Kyiv are being held now, and the representatives of the elections commission just came to you with a ballot for voting where the following candidates are included. Will you vote? IF “YES”: Whom would you vote for if the following candidates participated?

100% in column % among all % among those who decided with the choice
Boryslav Bereza 9.6 15.7
Volodymyr Bondarenko 3.8 6.1
Serhii Husovskii 3.5 5.7
Vitalii Klychko 30.0 48.8
Oleksandr Myrnyi 0.4 0.6
Oleksandr Puzanov 0.1 0.2
Mykola Tomenko 12.0 19.5
Other 2.1 3.5
WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT / WOULD CROSS OUT ALL THE PARTIES 8.9 ---
DIFFICULT TO SAY / UNDECIDED 25.5 ---
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING 0.8 ---
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE IN VOTING 3.4 ---

 

 

I will now read you the names of some public-political figures. For each one, tell me whether you know, have heard anything or read about him/her? IF “KNOW” What is your attitude to him/her?

100% in a row
Very negative Rather negative Neutral Rather positive Very positive DENIAL FROM ANSWERING DO NOT KNOW HIM/HER
  1. 1.     Yurii Boiko
29.1 17.5 28.5 6.0 1.5 4.5 12.9
  1. 2.     Anatolii Hrytsenko
7.4 13.4 38.1 24.8 5.8 4.1 6.5
  1. 3.     Volodymyr Hroisman
16.1 17.6 36.0 21.3 3.0 5.5 0.5
  1. 4.     Vitalii Klychko
14.0 13.8 34.1 26.1 7.5 4.5 0.0
  1. 5.     Oleh Liashko
39.6 25.6 23.0 6.3 1.1 4.3 0.1
  1. 6.     Valentyn Nalyvaichenko
8.0 13.4 38.9 16.5 1.8 3.8 17.8
  1. 7.     Andrii Parubii
18.9 16.3 42.5 13.6 1.4 5.1 2.3
  1. 8.     Petro Poroshenko
23.5 18.3 24.0 24.9 5.4 3.9 0.1
  1. 9.     Vadym Rabinovych
34.4 17.9 24.8 8.8 2.3 2.8 9.3
  1. 10.  Andrii Sadovyi
7.5 12.0 43.8 19.5 3.1 5.3 8.9
  1. 11.  Mykola Tomenko
5.5 10.1 32.8 23.9 5.6 5.5 16.6
  1. 12.  Yulia Tymoshenko
32.4 25.3 21.8 12.0 5.8 2.8 0.1

 

In your opinion, are things going in the right or in the wrong direction in Kyiv?

100% in a column % among all
Definitely in the wrong
13.4
Rather in the wrong
36.0
Rather in the right
36.1
Definitely in the right
2.8
DIFFICULT TO SAY
11.6
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING
0.1
                                  
D2. How do you, in general, evaluate the activities of Vitalii Klychko as mayor of Kiev?

100% in a column % among all
Very good
5.5
Rather good
26.0
Neither bad nor good           
39.4
Rather bad
16.4
Very bad
8.8
DIFFICULT TO SAY
3.8
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING
0.3
 
In your opinion, what direction of foreign policy should Ukraine take?

100% in a column % among all
Joining the European Union             
66.5
Joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia
4.0
Joining neither the European Union nor the Customs Union
23.3
DIFFICULT TO SAY
5.6
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING
0.6
 
Imagine the referendum on whether Ukraine should join NATO is being held now. You can vote for joining this union, against or skip the poll - not to vote. What is your choice?

100% in a column % among all
For joining
64.8
Against joining
15.9
Not to participate in voting
12.0
DIFFICULT TO SAY
4.9
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING
2.5
 
Some politicians, experts, and ordinary people believe that in order to improve the situation in the country, a new Constitution must be adopted. Others hold the view that in order to improve the situation, it is necessary to comply with the current Constitution. With which point of view do you agree?

100% in a column % among all
to improve the situation in the country, a new Constitution must be adopted
20.0
to improve the situation in the country, it is necessary to comply with the current Constitution
69.3
DIFFICULT TO SAY
8.6
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING
2.1
 
 
What form of government do you support to a greater extent?

100% in a column % among all
The Presidential form of government, when the President has broad powers, appoints or him/herself is the Head of Government, 
and also he/she is responsible for the international relations, defense, and socio-economic policy in the country
12.8
Parliamentary-presidential form of government, when the President is responsible for the international relations and defense of the country.
Instead, the Head of Government is appointed by the Parliament and is responsible for socio-economic policy in the country
54.6
Parliamentary form of government, when the Head of Government is appointed by the Parliament and is responsible for the areas of
international relations, defense, socio-economic policies in the country. At the same time, the President has only symbolic or ceremonial powers
23.0
DIFFICULT TO SAY
9.4
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING
0.3
 

16.9.2018
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